DIMINISHING TROPICS!!!

markymark8 · #1 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:26 pm

Looks like this season is coming to a close and fast. Thank God cause we all need it after this active and deadley year. There is absoluteley nothing in the Atlantic basin that even has a chance to become a Hurricane. Every invest has fizzled out and now we will be seeing stronger troughs in the coming weeks to deflect any storms out to sea. Fall will be ariving soon now so we will see ocean temps come dow some and alot more dry air than there is now. The only point of interest most likeley if there is even a week of right ingredients for something to form will be the caribbean. The ocean temps will be the warmest of any areas in the Atlantic especially in the southern part. I think that is the only area that we will be able to see a Cat 1-4 Hurricane form. The GOM will be a long shot for any development of a serious storm. This is the time of year that dry air will persist in the Gulf. We should not let our guard down completeley but in my opinion we will not see much development if any for the rest of this season. I think all of us that live on the coast can start to breathe a little easier now. One of the most active Hurricane seasons on record is coming to an end and winter will be here before we know it. PEACE!!!

hurricanefreak1988 · #2 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:28 pm

Well, at least you're not saying flat-out that the season is over. This is a more reasonable post than the ones we saw back in the original "season's over" craze, and the ones we're starting to see now.

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:35 pm

markymark8 wrote:Looks like this season is coming to a close and fast. Thank God cause we all need it after this active and deadley year. There is absoluteley nothing in the Atlantic basin that even has a chance to become a Hurricane. Every invest has fizzled out and now we will be seeing stronger troughs in the coming weeks to deflect any storms out to sea. Fall will be ariving soon now so we will see ocean temps come dow some and alot more dry air than there is now. The only point of interest most likeley if there is even a week of right ingredients for something to form will be the caribbean. The ocean temps will be the warmest of any areas in the Atlantic especially in the southern part. I think that is the only area that we will be able to see a Cat 1-4 Hurricane form. The GOM will be a long shot for any development of a serious storm. This is the time of year that dry air will persist in the Gulf. We should not let our guard down completeley but in my opinion we will not see much development if any for the rest of this season. I think all of us that live on the coast can start to breathe a little easier now. One of the most active Hurricane seasons on record is coming to an end and winter will be here before we know it. PEACE!!!

No, I am afraid you are wrong.

oceanguync · #4 Postby **oceanguync** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:39 pm

the season just doesnt stop with the first cold front--eventhough we all want the season to be over--I still feel we will have at least a few more storms and even one or two to threaten the US coastline.

MiamiensisWx · #5 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:50 pm

The Atlantic continues to be ahead of the eastern Pacific this year...

nequad · #6 Postby **nequad** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:07 pm

There is absoluteley nothing in the Atlantic basin that even has a chance to become a Hurricane.

I bet you anything there will be a hurricane south of Bermuda within 4 days.

markymark8 · #7 Postby **markymark8** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:08 am

nequad wrote:
There is absoluteley nothing in the Atlantic basin that even has a chance to become a Hurricane.

I bet you anything there will be a hurricane south of Bermuda within 4 days.

I'll hold u to that bet. What do i get??? :lol:

markymark8 · #8 Postby **markymark8** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:10 am

markymark8 wrote:
nequad wrote:
There is absoluteley nothing in the Atlantic basin that even has a chance to become a Hurricane.

I bet you anything there will be a hurricane south of Bermuda within 4 days.
I'll hold u to that bet. What do I get when I win???

#9 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:58 am

ITS OVER ITS DONE.....im thankfull after a very very long season....

WAAAY too much shear everywhere...and this time of the year it only gets worse

ConvergenceZone · #10 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:38 am

Well, I said about 3 weeks ago that the "season is slowly dying" and I got slammed for it, so it looks like I was right

... You could just see the increase in overall shear and the increase in dry air, coupled with decrease in organized waves. It's going to be tough to get to the greek alphabet, although, I guess it doesn't take much for a couple of weak tropical storms to form and then there we are. Nice to see the season really starting to shut down though. It seems like every wave that forms either encounters shear or dry air or cooler waters. I think it's going to be difficult for all of that to abate this late in the season.

apocalypt-flyer · #11 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 5:59 am

God, how NAIVE are you people, there's still more than 40 days to go till it officially finishes and you think we won't get anything anymore?
Bet'cha you will be proven wrong ...

caneman · #12 Postby **caneman** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:37 am

Gotta Love the it's all over posts just as much as the season will be a dud posts in the beginning of the seaon. :roll:

MiamiensisWx · #13 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:07 pm

I wouldn't call the season "done"... Vince has just formed. Also, there are usually around one to two "late-season" storms in the months of October and/or November.

Only one more name (Wilma) and then we have Alpha, believe it or not. It has been incredible, even if we don't reach Alpha.

#14 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:10 pm

I posted this in another thread...

I ran the climo-curve for the rest of this season based on what has happened up through today. It's guessing either Beta or Gamma...

With that said... I looked at 1995-2004 activity (minus the el Niño year of 1997), post Oct 9th.

Code: Select all
Year Storms* Name if added to 2005 1995 03 Beta 1996 03 Beta 1998 02 Alpha 1999 04 Gamma 2000 03 Beta 2001 05 Delta 2002 00 Vince 2003 04 Gamma 2004 02 Alpha --------------------- Avg 02.89 Alpha - Beta * Storms on or after October 09th

TS Zack · #15 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:11 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ITS OVER ITS DONE.....im thankfull after a very very long season....

WAAAY too much shear everywhere...and this time of the year it only gets worse

Please dont say that..... Reminds me of a few days before Katrina.

ConvergenceZone · #16 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:31 pm

apocalypt-flyer wrote:God, how NAIVE are you people, there's still more than 40 days to go till it officially finishes and you think we won't get anything anymore?
Bet'cha you will be proven wrong ...

While I agree that it's not over ALLTOGETHER. I think people are nuts thinking that it's going to get incredibly active again. There are plenty of instances where there was no action past October, so it's possible this can be one of those years as well. We got to think possitive people

All I've been seeing is increasing hostile conditions. Now I'm not talking about the type of storms are are here today and gone tomorrow. We know that those can pop up anytime and we have seen a number of those, but how long do they last??? Well obviously, they don't last very long. Conditions just aren't conducive to sustaining them. But to the people thinking that it's going to get active and crazy again and more devastating hurricanes are going to plow into the USA, I think it's obvious that the chance of that will diminish from here on out. Is it possible to get another strong cane slamming into the USA?? Sure it's possible.... but likely? No.....

caribepr · #17 Postby **caribepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:55 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ITS OVER ITS DONE.....im thankfull after a very very long season....

WAAAY too much shear everywhere...and this time of the year it only gets worse

This sort of post just makes me smile (that is to un-jinx them). "This time of year" IS this time of year...and if nothing else happens, yee haw! But those of us (and we are legion!) who know differently can only say, Watch and Learn (over the period of a few decades 8-)

).

jkt21787 · #18 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:07 pm

I think we're threw with the Katrinas and Ritas and we even may be done with major hurricane all together this year, but to say in all capital letters screaming at us, "ITS OVER ITS DONE", is stupid and is not even necessary and shouldn't have ever been posted.

Tropical Storms and even another minor hurricane could still impact the United States or other coastal areas in the Atlantic, GOM, Caribbean sometime this month or perhaps even November.

Weatherfreak14 · #19 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:28 pm

I don't think this year is over yet. I don't think we will have any more katrinias and ritas. Highest we are to get maybe is a CAT2.

NastyCat4 · #20 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:29 pm

I think lots of surprises--season will finish suddenly, just the way it started. Don't people realize that it would be impossible for it to continue at this pace for 6 months?????

DIMINISHING TROPICS!!!

DIMINISHING TROPICS!!!

Re: DIMINISHING TROPICS!!!

yes i thinkyou are wrong too

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