Tropical System forming over Puerto Rico?

[rockyman]

I've seen a couple of topics on the convection in the Caribbean...but none specifically focusing on the possibility of a storm forming over or near Puerto Rico. Here is my take on this:

Initial Setup: Huge upper level low to north could ventilate the system

Shear: Low shear near and just SW of PR...but increases quickly to the
north...though shear should decrease north of PR over the next 24 hours:


Convection: Plenty of it

Vorticity: appears to be south of PR....looking at radar loop, a swirl is pretty well defined just south of PR moving onshore:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

Upper level divergence: Very high south of PR


Model support...haven't looked at any but GFS, but it shows a system developing near PR moving NNE:


Bottom line....looks like a cyclone could form over or near PR over the next 24 hours and move off to the NNE...probably will not develop before reaching PR to cause any problems...But I would not be surprised if a hug amount of the energy is left behind and possibly become a second system further west in the Caribbean later on...Comments welcome!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I've seen a couple of topics on the convection in the Caribbean...but none specifically focusing on the possibility of a storm forming over or near Puerto Rico. Here is my take on this:

Initial Setup: Huge upper level low to north could ventilate the system

Shear: Low shear near and just SW of PR...but increases quickly to the
north...though shear should decrease north of PR over the next 24 hours:


Convection: Plenty of it

Vorticity: appears to be south of PR....looking at radar loop, a swirl is pretty well defined just south of PR moving onshore:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

Upper level divergence: Very high south of PR


Model support...haven't looked at any but GFS, but it shows a system developing near PR moving NNE:


Bottom line....looks like a cyclone could form over or near PR over the next 24 hours and move off to the NNE...probably will not develop before reaching PR to cause any problems...But I would not be surprised if a hug amount of the energy is left behind and possibly become a second system further west in the Caribbean later on...Comments welcome!

A few models hint that energy left behind that you refer to
does indeed become a system in the Western Carribean
4-6 days out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[WindRunner]

I don't think that that circle will be a TC, but rather just a low floating around in the mess, as the ones off the Bahamas and FL coast are just part of the front moving through, not another two TCs.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We'll have to see if the models continue to hint at something when runs
come out later today