Invest 96L Near Az Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:05 pm

It still holds a 3.0St

Still looks good appears to have a eye!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#22 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:56 pm

296
WHXX01 KWBC 081903
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL962005) ON 20051008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1800 051009 0600 051009 1800 051010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.1N 20.1W 33.4N 20.0W 34.2N 19.3W 35.5N 16.9W
BAMM 33.1N 20.1W 33.6N 19.7W 34.7N 18.8W 36.1N 16.7W
A98E 33.1N 20.1W 33.2N 19.1W 34.1N 17.4W 36.2N 15.6W
LBAR 33.1N 20.1W 33.8N 19.0W 35.4N 17.4W 37.5N 15.0W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 50KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 50KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1800 051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.9N 12.4W 44.3N 4.1W 51.6N .0W 58.8N 1.3E
BAMM 38.4N 13.4W 44.8N 5.6W 52.1N .3E 58.7N 4.2E
A98E 38.5N 11.4W 39.7N 4.0W 42.0N 2.6E 44.7N 11.0E
LBAR 39.2N 11.3W 40.5N 3.6W 39.7N .8E 40.4N 4.9E
SHIP 53KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 53KTS 43KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.1N LONCUR = 20.1W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 20.6W DIRM12 = 84DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 33.4N LONM24 = 22.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

It says "Tropical Storm Invest" on the header. An upgrade at 5pm?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#23 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:04 pm

It is initialized at 45 knots?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:20 pm

We will know very soon if we have a subtropical cyclone.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:40 pm

Image

Subtropical Storm Warming for Portugal coast?!?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#26 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:42 pm

WOW...

I'm checking and don't see anything official on it(as far as being a TD or TS goes). I'll keep refreshing. :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:47 pm

Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
TheEuropean
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1797
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
Location: Voerde, Germany
Contact:
Contact TheEuropean

#28 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:48 pm

Here is another pic from University of Dundee (2pm EDT:

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/051008azoren8.jpg">

It's late in the evening here in europe, I will see tomorrow, what's up with 96L...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#29 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


Yep... it's 4:50pm and nothing.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#30 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:50 pm

I doubt this will get named.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#31 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


It wouldn't say "AL23" because it would probably go straight to sub-tropical storm status, since it already has winds estimated 45kts.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#32 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:00 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Subtropical Storm Warming for Portugal coast?!?


lol, the BAMM goes right over my house!

This was showing up on the Dvorak estimates earlier in the week as subtropical.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:02 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


It wouldn't say "AL23" because it would probably go straight to sub-tropical storm status, since it already has winds estimated 45kts.


Then what would the header say apart from the words (Tropical Storm Invest)?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:08 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
JTD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1558
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 6:35 pm

#35 Postby JTD » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:27 pm

Unbelievable!!!!

A subtropical cyclone forming and about to threaten Europe. Has this ever happened before? I would assume that usually they just get the remnants of CV storms?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 pm

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY COLD
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

5:30 PM TWO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 pm

Door closing really fast .....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:
Contact P.K.

#38 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:35 pm

Certainly looks interesting on the sat images, see http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=24287&posts=29
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#39 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:08 pm

The only reason they are not upgrading is because there is no offical thinking on what is making this subtropical. Research needs to be done...In then hopefully this will be added to this years total. Theres no quastion in my mind that this is a subtropical storm.
0 likes   
Top
Coredesat

#40 Postby Coredesat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:20 pm

I think the trough associated with this feature is what's keeping them from upgrading.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MadaTheConquistador, ncforecaster89, Teban54 and 93 guests