Alpha?

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When will we have tropical storm Alpha

Poll ended at Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:42 am

now - October 15
5
4%
October 15 - 23
15
11%
October 23 - 31
35
27%
November 1 - 15
25
19%
November 15 - 30
15
11%
December
3
2%
not this season
33
25%
 
Total votes: 131
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Author
Weatherfreak000

wow...

#21 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 6:48 pm

Whoever said we won't get Alpha should look at facts.


Assuming 95l develops in the next three days that'll leave us another week in the Yellow Zone and then a month dropoff even slightly into December.



Will it happen?


2004 we had 2 storms after the 10th and a TROPICAL storm in December.

2003, 3 storms two of them into December

2002, an un-named storm after the 10th.

2001, 1 storm.

2000, two hurricanes.

1999, 4 storms.

1998, two storms after the 10th

1997, one

1996, three storms

1995, two storms.


That's 20 storms in 9 Years.

An Average of two storms.


What we need to be asking ourselves is will we see Alpha and Beta? Or maybe further...
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krysof

#22 Postby krysof » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:03 pm

If Vince develops within the next week, then I think there is a 65% chance of Alpha. If it develops by the second week, than Alpha most likely won't happen.
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T'Bonz
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#23 Postby T'Bonz » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:11 pm

I'll go with Oct 22nd with the naming of Alpha.
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#24 Postby whereverwx » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:54 pm

I am in shock. I just cannot believe this many people think we will not see Alpha this year. All we need is just 3 more storms… I’m sure it will happen. And Doc, BTW, I think you might have to charge money for the crow buffet. Looks like you will have to order a lot of dishes; crow won’t come free after this season. Hopefully, there is still some population left.
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#25 Postby LaPlaceFF » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:27 pm

Here comes Beta!!!
Image
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#26 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:27 pm

Here we go again. Everyone is saying the season is over. Come on you guys. We still have two months left, and with this being the greatest season of all time, I don't know how you can say we're done. I just don't get it. We will get to Alpha. Maybe not Delta or further like I thought last month, but we will still get to Alpha.
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#27 Postby arkess7 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:03 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
LaPlaceFF wrote:No wait....


Here he is...Image


:lol: :lol: :lol:




:roflmao: :fools:
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senorpepr
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:14 am

I ran the climo-curve for the rest of this season based on what has happened up through today. It's guessing either Beta or Gamma...

With that said... I looked at 1995-2004 activity (minus the el Niño year of 1997), post Oct 9th.

Code: Select all

Year  Storms* Name if added to 2005
1995  03      Beta
1996  03      Beta
1998  02      Alpha
1999  04      Gamma
2000  03      Beta
2001  05      Delta
2002  00      Vince
2003  04      Gamma
2004  02      Alpha
---------------------
Avg   02.89   Alpha - Beta


* Storms on or after October 09th             
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#29 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:30 am

senorpepr wrote:I ran the climo-curve for the rest of this season based on what has happened up through today. It's guessing either Beta or Gamma...

With that said... I looked at 1995-2004 activity (minus the el Niño year of 1997), post Oct 9th.

Code: Select all

Year  Storms* Name if added to 2005
1995  03      Beta
1996  03      Beta
1998  02      Alpha
1999  04      Gamma
2000  03      Beta
2001  05      Delta
2002  00      Vince
2003  04      Gamma
2004  02      Alpha
---------------------
Avg   02.89   Alpha - Beta


* Storms on or after October 09th             


Wow...we might have Greek names all over the place!
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#30 Postby HurricaneGirl » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:52 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :uarrow:
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mikey mike
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#31 Postby mikey mike » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:30 pm

One week before Halloween on Oct.24 TS Alpha will form
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floridahurricaneguy
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#32 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:07 pm

Hope I dont regret saying this. We will almost deffinitely get Alpha. Beyond that I just dont know. All I know is this season and is wacky. Things could be tricking us to make us all think its over and boom another major develops. Hope not but isnt out of the question. I am worried if something develop and gets pulled by cold front in West Coast of Florida. Scary thought but the Cat 3 in 1921 hit north of Tampa on October 25 or just after I think.

Matt
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#33 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:26 pm

I say mid to late oct. Mybe eevn early nov. :wink:
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#34 Postby whereverwx » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 am

It’s about time for the Crowfest.
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cjrciadt
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#35 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:11 am

My Nov. 7th guess was shot to you know where. :eek:
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LAwxrgal
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#36 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:14 am

T'Bonz wrote:I'll go with Oct 22nd with the naming of Alpha.


:eek:

WOW! You might get it after all!
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Wake me up when November ends
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Brent
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#37 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:15 am

T'Bonz wrote:I'll go with Oct 22nd with the naming of Alpha.


WOW.
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#38 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:16 am

LaPlaceFF wrote:No wait....


Here he is...Image


:roflmao: :roflmao:
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whereverwx
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#39 Postby whereverwx » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:16 am

Wow! Now that’s incredible! No crow for him.
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#40 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 11:16 am

Calamity wrote:It’s about time for the Crowfest.


Crows have been declared extinct. :P
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