Unofficial: Intense Carribean Storm Likely Before December

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not
be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may
or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is
NOT endorsed by any professional institution including
storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the
NHC and NWS products.

Between now and December, I expect a very intense Carribean
Hurricane. SSTs are running very high and untouched since July.
This is a huge factor in this situation.
Nothing is imminent, but if you look at climatology when you
get favorable waters in the Carribean storms can really explode.
Recall Mitch.
NOAA says that the ENSO will be neutral for 3-6 months (See the
ENSO thread). In 2004 El Nino shut things down in October.
This year no El Nino is here to shut things down.

SSTs, intense convective activity, Dr. Gray
even said to expect one more major. This October and November SSTs are almost perfect to support a very major Carribean
hurricane. The waters have been untouched.

Do not let your guard down. The 2005 Hurricane Season is
far from over.

[truballer#1]

I agree! I think there could be one more major cane

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Intense convection in the Carribean is present now.
BUT keep in mind: Nothing is IMMINENT in terms of
development at this time.

[fasterdisaster]

Will we have another...MITCH!? I dont know about that intense, but Cat 4 definitely. I think it's possible we'll have another...LENNY!!! Which is the strongest November hurricane on record.

[gpickett00]

I understand that since it is untouched since July that the SSTs have maintained themselves. But do they have feelings? Do they think, "I haven't gotten any action lately, I'm pissed!!! CAT 5 TIME!!!"

[Lutrastorm]

Intense convection in the Carribean is present now.



[/quote]



Don't you mean intense convection along the ENTIRE EAST COAST is present now.

j/k WE REALLY NEED the rain.... fall colors won't happen on Delmarva with leaves changing ..... the leaves are just shriveling up turning brown and dying even the pines and cedars are dying....... We have storm water retention ponds with broad sandy beaches right now that have never been dry before....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Intense convection in the Carribean is present now.

East coast is getting some heavy rains today.

A ball of convection is now entering the eastern Carribean.
Development is not expected in the short term, but it
bears watching.