Post Rita Questions

[galvbay]

No question, if Rita went into Mata......Freeport/Surfside/West End and West Gal would have been totaled (and it will unfortunately happen sooner than later). Mississippi does not have the luxury of having a barrier island to stop/slow down the majority of the surge like Houston proper does.
jschlitz/jeff....did you guys evacuate? Just wondering......galvbay

[jasons2k]

No question, if Rita went into Mata......Freeport/Surfside/West End and West Gal would have been totaled (and it will unfortunately happen sooner than later). Mississippi does not have the luxury of having a barrier island to stop/slow down the majority of the surge like Houston proper does.
jschlitz/jeff....did you guys evacuate? Just wondering......galvbay

When you have a surge of that magnitude (Cat. 4/5), a barrier island offers little or NO protection. That argument is moot. The only protection you have is elevation and/or distance from the coast. The area you are describing will most certainly flood, whether you can imagine it or not.

I did not evacuate for Rita as we live in Spring. I live off of Rayford Road and due to traffic, from Wednesday @ 6pm until early Friday AM it was impossible to leave my neighborhood. Rayford (for whatever reason) became an alternate evacuation route and the only exit from where I live was blocked. My wife's best friend did leave us Thursday AM and it took her over 2 hours just to get to I-45. That's a ~2 mile trip and normally less than five minutes.

I had a housefull of people from the Galveston West End and Crosby, so we planned to ride it out at my place unless the course still called for a Freeport landfall on Friday. It didn't, so we took a gamble it would stay east of us.

We ended up with TS conditions at my house and several trees down in my neighborhood. If Cat. 4/5 is projected again to make landfall near Freeport and move north, we will probably leave next time, considering what Rita did to places like Jasper, etc. It would be extremely dangerous to ride out full-blown hurricane conditions where I live with all the 100ft. plus pine trees we have.

[galvbay]

jschlitz wrote

“When you have a surge of that magnitude (Cat. 4/5), a barrier island offers little or NO protection. That argument is moot. The only protection you have is elevation and/or distance from the coast. The area you are describing will most certainly flood, whether you can imagine it or not.”

I’m going to have to politely and respectfully disagree with you on this one. Geology 101 defines a barrier island as a low, elongated coastal island that parallels the shoreline and protects the mainland from storms. Looking back to Aug.22,1999….Hurricane Brett had picked up to a Cat 4 and had his sights focused on South Texas. PINS (Padre Island National Seashore) is still the longest remaining undeveloped stretch of barrier island in the world and was the first land mass Brett encountered.

Theoretical values from the SLOSH storm surge model indicate that a narrow region along Central and North Padre Island had a storm surge of 8 to 10 feet. A report from Port Mansfield Pass suggests that three to five feet of water penetrated this coastal location. Several cuts were observed in the dunes surrounding Padre Island. The largest of these, near mile marker 50 near the eye's passage, was mistaken by aircrews inspecting the damage as the Mansfield Pass. Substantial beach erosion was reported near Port Mansfield.

If it were not for PINS(a barrier island)….the inland communities such as Loyola Beach, Riveria and even Kingsville would have encountered the storm surge. As it was…Brett was more of a rain maker for the coastal area. Would you not agree that ‘if’ there was a barrier island between the city of Biloxi and the GOM…the results would be different post Katrina? I appreciate and respect you opinions. galvbay

PS…here is a awesome sat. view of Brett
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/99 ... _java.html

[jeff]

I did not evacuate...my job required me to be at the Harris County EOC (transtar) during the duration of the event.

However, I did encourage those I knew along the coast and in the surge zones to leave and it did not take much convincing.

[galvbay]

Nice article on how barrier islands protect the mainland from tital surge.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... =printable

"We've undertaken lots of storm surge computer simulation during the last five years, and we've proven the effect of (restored islands and marshes) in retarding storm waves and surges," Stone said

[artist]

glavbay - seems you just might not want to hear what they are trying to tell you. Remember - the areas have not been hit by a cat 4 or 5 directly for so many years (if ever) that it would be hard to imagine. Why take the chance?? Another thing is barrier islands may be protection but for just how strong of a hurricane??? We are 11 miles inland and experienced Jeanne and Frances - we had a mout around our home from the water - and not from surge!

[vbhoutex]

Galvbay I stayed put. I watched Rita like a hawk and made the final decision to stay about 9 am Friday morning. I am not subject to storm surge where I live, but the trees coming down in a direct hit would have destroyed my house. I did not decide to stay till I was as sure as I could be that Rita was going to be East of us.

The surge doesn't just funnel up the creeks. It also rises up and comes across the land. It is nothing to play with. I don't know how much of the surge reports from our members that went through Katrina you have read or if you have ever seen a good video of a really high surge coming in, but I can not imagine anyone would second guess on surge after Katrina. Many of those affected were several miles inland and ended up with water in their homes. Some were even North of I-10 and had 8 feet of water in their homes.

[jasons2k]

jschlitz wrote

“When you have a surge of that magnitude (Cat. 4/5), a barrier island offers little or NO protection. That argument is moot. The only protection you have is elevation and/or distance from the coast. The area you are describing will most certainly flood, whether you can imagine it or not.”

I’m going to have to politely and respectfully disagree with you on this one. Geology 101 defines a barrier island as a low, elongated coastal island that parallels the shoreline and protects the mainland from storms. Looking back to Aug.22,1999….Hurricane Brett had picked up to a Cat 4 and had his sights focused on South Texas. PINS (Padre Island National Seashore) is still the longest remaining undeveloped stretch of barrier island in the world and was the first land mass Brett encountered.

Theoretical values from the SLOSH storm surge model indicate that a narrow region along Central and North Padre Island had a storm surge of 8 to 10 feet. A report from Port Mansfield Pass suggests that three to five feet of water penetrated this coastal location. Several cuts were observed in the dunes surrounding Padre Island. The largest of these, near mile marker 50 near the eye's passage, was mistaken by aircrews inspecting the damage as the Mansfield Pass. Substantial beach erosion was reported near Port Mansfield.

If it were not for PINS(a barrier island)….the inland communities such as Loyola Beach, Riveria and even Kingsville would have encountered the storm surge. As it was…Brett was more of a rain maker for the coastal area. Would you not agree that ‘if’ there was a barrier island between the city of Biloxi and the GOM…the results would be different post Katrina? I appreciate and respect you opinions. galvbay

PS…here is a awesome sat. view of Brett
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/99 ... _java.html

You can't compare the two. In most situations yes, absolutely, a barrier island will offer protection. But when you have a Rita or Katrina-like situation it offers little help when water pours over the island into the bay. There are so many other factors to consider as well such as angle of landfall, etc. The geography near Laguna Madre and South Padre is completely different; the shape of the bays is a straight line, almost parellel to the coast; they don't jut inward like a bowl as Galveston does.

If you are going to cite the SLOSH models as evidence to make your argument, then why do you discount the surges they produce for Galveston?

I appreciate your opinions as well

[galvbay]

Good point....thanks for the input. I guess I should be more worried about one of these refineries 'cooking off' than a Cat5 'cane coming up the ship channel. Thanks again for your insight and knowledge. galvbay

[jasons2k]

Also, one important lesson from Katrina is that mand-made barriers such as levees and seawalls, and natural barriers such as barrier islands can be an "all or nothing" proposition. They do a great job of protection up to a point. But once they fail or are breached, then they tend to fail miserably. Once the water rushes in (or over), then 'it's all over' so to speak.

BTW, there are uninhabited barrier islands off the MS coast and also the Chandeluer islands east of NOLA. They were virtually washed away by Katrina.

[skysummit]

Also, one important lesson from Katrina is that mand-made barriers such as levees and seawalls, and natural barriers such as barrier islands can be an "all or nothing" proposition. They do a great job of protection up to a point. But once they fail or are breached, then they tend to fail miserably. Once the water rushes in (or over), then 'it's all over' so to speak.

BTW, there are uninhabited barrier islands off the MS coast and also the Chandeluer islands east of NOLA. They were virtually washed away by Katrina.

Good point. Manmade barriers are no match for mother nature. I haven't seen images of those barrier islands yet, but I have to tend to agree that they're no longer there.

[galvbay]

The barrier islands along the Louisiana coast are the first protection against the force of hurricanes.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/091 ... i001.shtml

Good article on how the LA barrier islands fared after Katrina. Barrier islands play a BIG factor on mainland damage from hurricanes. I am still not convinced that when the big one comes in South of Galveston like Rita was expected we would see downtown Houston underwater as many people have predicted. Houston will never turn into a New Orlean's after a hurricane. galvbay

[artist]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76264

might want to check out this thread beofre going against what you are told...

[jasons2k]

I am still not convinced that when the big one comes in South of Galveston like Rita was expected we would see downtown Houston underwater as many people have predicted. Houston will never turn into a New Orlean's after a hurricane. galvbay

[artist]

also - have you seen this?
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/ ... index.html

as well as these other pages - read all the stories - read about Hurricane Carla, etc. Jusy may change your mind -

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... an/3046592

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... an/3049027

[artist]

also - here is info from the 1943 hurricane that hit Houston - this is taken from an article about the damages in the tri-cities area -

La Porte
The eye of the hurricane crossed Galveston Bay, then passed directly over La Porte. Pioneers of the La Porte area, men and women who had been through all of the hurricanes since the Great 1900 Storm, agreed that this blow was as hard as any of the others they had experienced. The high school's physical education building was reduced from a three-story building to just one floor as the wind blew out all the windows on the north side and knocked down support beams, which caused the roof to collapse. At nearby Morgan's Point, a water tower was blown down. The Houston Yacht Club was also heavily damaged. Many who lived in La Porte who experienced the 1943 storm, and Hurricane Carla in 1961 and Hurricane Alicia in 1983, rated the '43 storm as more destructive.

Baytown (Tri-Cities Area)
The 1943 communities of Pelly and Goose Creek are now part of Baytown. This area may have been the hardest hit area in the hurricane's path, as it was just north of the eye. The huge Humble Oil and Refining Company, now Exxon, at Baytown recorded wind gusts of 132 mph on one of their wind anemometers. At the time of the storm, the plant was the production leader of the Allied Forces supply of aviation fuel. Its toluene production was also very important to the war effort, being an ingredient of the high explosive, TNT. At least four large cooling towers were demolished and along with other damage, production had to be suspended.

Refineries at Texas City and Deer Park joined the list of war production being suspended, as they were also badly damaged by the hurricane. Locations along the west and southern shore of Galveston Bay were flooded as its waters were pushed in front of the high winds. All over Chambers and Jefferson counties, oil derricks went down.

Ellington Field
Ellington Field was used as a U.S. Army Air Corps. training school for air cadets during the war. It was located about 16 miles southeast of Houston. Many air cadets and soldiers were injured during the storm at Ellington Field. Hundreds of air cadets marched out with their trouser legs rolled up to join the soldiers on the flight ramp in staking down the planes that hadn't been flown out in advance of the hurricane. As the winds started to increase to hurricane force, cadets and soldiers held onto the wings of the planes to keep them from going airborne. At times, some of them were working in water hip deep. Gusts as high as 132 mph were recorded by the wind anemometer located on top of one of the hangars, just before the hangar roof and attached anemometer blew away. At least 22 of the cadets and soldiers ended up in the base hospital. At lease five planes were lost.

Deer Park
In Deer Park, the Shell Oil Refinery battled against the storm until the cooling towers started flying apart. The strengthening winds struck here at shift change, so many couldn't make it to the plant to relieve those that had been there all day. Most had to ride the storm out on site instead of being home taking care of their families. Along with Baytown's Humble Oil Refinery, they produced aviation fuel needed for the Allied War effort. Without the cooling towers, production came to an abrupt halt. Because of quick thinking by management, a new cooling tower was ordered as the winds were still raging. One of the supervisors raced into Houston just ahead of the hurricane to send out the order.

from this article -
http://www.hurricaneconsulting.net/home/surprise.htm

[artist]

here is a quote from Dr. Neil Franks report on the the Great Hurricane of 1900 - it is his assessment of what would happen today if that same hurricane were to hit again -

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF AN EQUIVALENT “GREAT HURRICANE”
The following scenario is partially based on observations I have made of coastal
damage in the aftermath of all major hurricanes that have hit the United States since
Camille in 1969.
The height of the storm surge will range from 15 ft along the seawall to near 25
ft at the north end of Galveston Bay. Huge waves on top of the surge will break
against the top of the seawall cascading tons of salt water onto the buildings on the
north side of Seawall Boulevard, the street on top of the seawall. Water will be 5-10
ft deep in buildings in the center of town on the north side of the Island.
Out west beyond the seawall, water up to 10 ft deep will flow rapidly across the
Island, causing catastrophic damage, particularly to beachfront homes. The damage
will be much greater than what occurred during Alicia, and all 300 beachfront
homes will be destroyed. Water will be deep enough to float the broken remains of
beach homes, which will become battering rams — destroying homes on the second,
third, and fourth rows. Over 1,000 homes on the west end of the Island will
likely be destroyed.
Wave erosion will cut one or two channels through the Island, and road access to
the west end might not be possible for weeks.
The two bridges connecting the Island to the mainland could also suffer damage,
cutting off access to the Island for days or weeks.
The storm surge will cause water to rise 15-20 ft along the west side of Galveston
Bay and in Clear Lake where the NASA complex is located. The beautiful waterfront
recreational development in Kemah at the mouth of Clear Lake will probably
be destroyed.
A 25-ft surge at the north end of Galveston Bay will cause serious flooding along
the ship channel and close interstate highway I-10 East.
Winds up to 100 mi/hr will sweep inland more than fifty miles, causing extensive
roof damage as far as Conroe to the north and Katy to the west. Building codes used
in Southeast Texas are designed for winds up to around 75 mi/hr. When winds are
in excess of 100 mi/hr, roofs start blowing off, weakening the building and causing
walls to collapse. Winds over the inland areas could destroy over 100,000 homes.
The recovery process will be staggering. It could take weeks to restore water and
power to many parts of Southeast Texas, and two to three years or more to rebuild
all the destroyed homes.
It is a given that the west end of Galveston Island will be devastated during
Category-4 or -5 hurricanes. What isn’t known is how many people will die. This
is a difficult question to answer because we do not know how soon people will
respond to a call for action when a hurricane threatens. This is a major concern.
Evacuation studies indicate it will take almost 36 hours to relocate residents-at-risk
from Galveston Island and mainland coastal areas when a Category-4 or -5 hurricane
threatens, even if all concerned act immediately when evacuation notices are
issued.
138

here is a link to the article in its entirety -

http://www.agu.org/pubs/booksales/hurri ... veston.pdf

what insight he had!

The absence of major hurricanes, coupled with a large influx of new coastal residents
in the years preceding this publication, could prove a deadly combination, if
multitudes of new residents ended up wasting precious time trying to confirm the
reality of a warning, rather than evacuating promptly. There remains, as well, the
possibility of a meteorological surprise with inadequate warning time for people to
respond. The nightmare hurricane forecasters fear most is explosive intensification
of a weak hurricane as it approaches landfall. Either way, multitudes could be
trapped on the Island, making the possibility of another Galveston disaster very real.
Psychologists tell us memories of bad events tend to dim with time. A wise
philosopher once said those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it.
Ignorance and fading memories are both evident today in planning and developing
coastal areas.

[susan]

I live very close to Galveston Bay and the Ship Channel...I live in the "doomed if it hits Freeport" part of town. From all the reports I have read and from local guys, had Rita hit Freeport, my house would be under water or just gone. As far as I am concerned, there is only one thing to do and that is to leave. It is scary to think anyone would want to stay in the storm surge zones with a Cat 4 looking right at you.....

[galvbay]

galvbay is in the corner...taking shots right and left....not sure if he can keep this punishment up....he's down on a knee.....he's dazed....DING...saved by the bell!

OK....I have enjoyed the comments and discussion. The original topic(question) has been skewed just a tad. First of all....the pictures of NOLA are indeed tragic and no doubt hardships have been and will be abundant. Parts of NOLA (correct me if I'm wrong) are mainly located BELOW sea level....where as downtown Houston (Minute Maid Park) is 45 feet ABOVE sea level(ref.google-earth)...not even a close comparison. To compare a picture of flooded NOLA and think that downtown Houston could have the same fate is... a little exagerated? Also...the pictures of Jasper show a good example of how winds of a hurricane/tornado can do damage. I'm not for sure....but I have not read anything where Jasper had storm surge. Three out of the five pictures show what downed trees can do to homes. If there were no trees...would there be no damage? (something else I would like to discuss on another thread...how can you protect your property) Dr. Neil Frank (who I go to first with the local guys) kept talking about 'wiggles and wobblies'...with Rita...what was that about?? He is a very good writer and his articles read like a novel. I have lived on the TX gulf coast since 1954(Kingsville 21, Corpus 5 and Clear Lake/Deer Park 25)...went through Carla, Beulah, Celia, Fern, Allen, Alicia, Jerry and Rita. I have the UTMOST respect for these powerful storms and would never want to put myself or family in danger. I originally started this topic with a question about the estimated storm surge the media had warned with Rita. I appreciate the comments and respect the views of everyone on this board. Thanks again! galvbay

ps...Susan, I would not disagree with you one bit...if you are included in a storm surge area...get out.

[jasons2k]

Hey Galvbay,

Don't take the "punches" personally We're having a good discussion here.

The pictures of downtown Houston I posted, although not from a direct storm surge, were really just to make a point that water is water. Granted, it would eventually drain and not be trapped for a month as in NOLA, but if you get flooded-out, doesn't really matter if it's a day, a week, or a month. Houston itself is very vulnerable to bayou flooding and if it gets bad enough, the bayous overflow their banks, and essentially the entire landscape becomes a river. This is documented in the post-Allison report from the Harris County Flood Control District. Many people state that surge causes the most hurricane deaths when in fact it is inland flooding.

But back to the original topic at hand, all I can tell you is trust the experts. They all have the same, consistent message. Dr. Frank, Judge Eckels, the HCFCD, the SLOSH Models, the NWS, Bill King, Dodson & Associates, Texas A&M University at Galveston, and The Weather Research Center here in Houston all say the same thing. If a major hits us directly, the gulf will overfill the bay and the bay will have a massive surge. It will be worse than any of us can comprehend, and I pray that God will provide us the strength to get through it.

Take care,
-JS