93L Invest

[skysummit]

I guess 93L got to be pretty boring to discuss. LOL

[Crankin]

I think 93 is becoming a non-issue. It looked alot more promising yesterday am. Oh well, that may be it as far as chances for any action on the FL west coast for this season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051007 0000 051007 1200 051008 0000 051008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 83.7W 25.3N 82.6W 28.2N 81.5W 31.3N 79.9W
BAMM 23.0N 83.7W 24.9N 82.6W 27.5N 81.2W 30.1N 79.5W
A98E 23.0N 83.7W 24.0N 82.4W 26.0N 80.8W 28.1N 79.4W
LBAR 23.0N 83.7W 24.5N 82.9W 26.7N 82.2W 29.2N 81.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051009 0000 051010 0000 051011 0000 051012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.4N 78.1W 40.5N 73.8W 44.0N 66.2W 43.1N 52.8W
BAMM 32.4N 77.8W 36.6N 76.1W 41.3N 74.6W 43.8N 69.5W
A98E 29.9N 78.4W 31.5N 78.9W 33.8N 78.0W 34.3N 78.1W
LBAR 31.6N 81.3W 35.5N 80.2W 39.7N 77.7W 45.5N 68.9W
SHIP 56KTS 61KTS 53KTS 37KTS
DSHP 46KTS 36KTS 30KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.2N LONM12 = 85.2W DIRM12 = 69DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 86.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


They keep running models on 93L so for those diehard fans of them here is the 00:00z run.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Intense Convective Bursts Well South of Cuba:

[MiamiensisWx]

It is interesting to note that the latest infra-red imagery shows that very deep convection with very cold cloudtops has/is firing up. See below...


Even if it does not develop, it must still be monitored.

[flyingphish]

Wind chimes picking up here in north naples. Rain coming soon, moreso from the due south than more southwest last evening. Rain guage" locked and loaded. "

[cat_6]

does anyone think it is possible that this system will become a hurricane? is it possible...?

this is surely the season that will not give up

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Heavy Thunderstorms developing off 93L and approaching FL
West Coast:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... ktbw.shtml

[cat_6]

and how come NHC hasn't shifted Storm Floater 1 to this system?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

does anyone think it is possible that this system will become a hurricane? is it possible...?

this is surely the season that will not give up

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should
not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster
and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological
data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer
to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, if that massive convective explosion well
south of Cuba travels further south and avoids the cold
front it may develop gradually into something

or it may move into the bahamas and quickly develop-
in that case the SE coast from FL East Coast to the Carolinas
would feel the impacts if that happened.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

and how come NHC hasn't shifted Storm Floater 1 to this system?

The low level circulation is in the SE GOM and headed towards
Southwest Florida (Around Ft. Myers Specifically) by tomorrow-

Whether or not it develops, it will bring rain and gusty winds to
the FL Peninsula.

[fasterdisaster]

Am I the only one that thinks 93l is looking better than last night and this morning?

[Crankin]

Unless it is relocating to west of Jamaica where the big blowup is, I don't think it looks better. Where do you se it looking good?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

93L starting to get interesting...

[cycloneye]

DATA FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF HAVANA. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

10:30 PM TWO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Am I the only one that thinks 93l is looking better than last night and this morning?

It is looking better...
A thin band of convection surrounds the circulation 3/4 of the
way as you can see on the color infrared image I posted- look
at the circulation over the SE GOM just north of Cuba.

[arkess7]

i think its looking better too

[ronjon]

Hmmm....there is definitely a CC circulation about 30-40 miles north of Havana with some banding-like features starting to develop. There is a 1002 mb low here. This is starting to look alot like the beginnings of Tammy - we shall see. Appears to be drifting north. Upper level winds look pretty hostile but you never know.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a low at the least at the surface. It looks good for something to form. It is more subtropic system.

[MiamiensisWx]

Even though shear is limiting development, I think slow strengthening may be possible.