Katrina H-Wind Analysis, marginal 3 at landfall

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Scorpion

#401 Postby Scorpion » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:why do you not believe it? Any scientific basis for not believing it? It is VERY believable as the storm was 10KT more intense when the pressure was 10mb lower. The pressure gradient changed eased significantly in the few hours before landfall

The normal pressure to wind relation does not hold in the northern GOM

We have a 918mb cat 3 in all liklihood in Katrina, a very generous 105KT cat 3 Ivan at 946, a 100KT cat 3 Opal at 942, A 105KT cat 3 Dennis at 946, and a 90KT, 961mb cat 2 Georges


Well that doesnt make sense, as Ivan and Dennis were both 28 mb weaker and seemed to have similar winds to Katrina, even though Ivan and Dennis both were weakening drastically at landfall while Katrina wasn't.
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#402 Postby Droop12 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:45 pm

Dhweather...It doesnt take cat4/5 winds to snap palm trees. I saw numerous around my area and I saw video from Hurricane Frances taken by Jim Leonard that showed snapped palm trees. Frances was what, a weak Cat 1/2?
0 likes   

Scorpion

#403 Postby Scorpion » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:45 pm

Droop12 wrote:Dhweather...It doesnt take cat4/5 winds to snap palm trees. I saw numerous around my area and I saw video from Hurricane Frances taken by Jim Leonard that showed snapped palm trees. Frances was what, a weak Cat 1/2?


I doubt they were snapped. Maybe toppled?
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#404 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:45 pm

thats because you do not understand the equations

Dennis was much smaller than Katrina; thus, its pressure gradient was larger
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#405 Postby Droop12 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:48 pm

How are you gonna tell me that. Do you think I dont know the difference between snapped and toppled? :roll: I said I saw numerous palm trees SNAPPED, as in broken in half. I saw the same in video from hurricane frances, snapped palm trees.
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#406 Postby dhweather » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:52 pm

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/camille.jpg">

Well obviously this is incredibly wrong - There's a roof on the house, a cat
5 would remove the roof without exception.

PS - there are still trees standing. All kinds of trees.
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#407 Postby Droop12 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:53 pm

By the way Scorpion, you need to learn a few more things before questioning Derek on a consistent basis. He has provided obvious sciencetif evidence as to why Katrina had such a low pressure and the winds didnt match up and all you say is "I dont believe it". Show us or tell us your evidence to support your claim before jumping on Dereks thoughts.
0 likes   

Droop12
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Indianapolis

#408 Postby Droop12 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:05 pm

Ok, believe what ya want but so far in this entire discussion your just making a fool of yourself because you cant accept the obvious. By the way, am I the only one that has seen palm trees snapped in Cat1/2 winds? View the video and you'll see, but then again you probably still wont believe it.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#409 Postby Scorpion » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:05 pm

Droop12 wrote:By the way Scorpion, you need to learn a few more things before questioning Derek on a consistent basis. He has provided obvious sciencetif evidence as to why Katrina had such a low pressure and the winds didnt match up and all you say is "I dont believe it". Show us or tell us your evidence to support your claim before jumping on Dereks thoughts.


Palm trees don't snap in Cat 1 winds. And have you ever seen a 908 mb Category 3 hurricane? It is not right.
0 likes   

jazzfan1247
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 pm

#410 Postby jazzfan1247 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:11 pm

dhweather wrote:I'm not emotional about it at all.

I see water lines 35 feet above MSL. That's not emotion, that's fact.
If you want to call a tape measure scientific, then so be it.

I see palm trees snapped in the middle. That's typical of 4/5 winds.

My anemometer was destroyed early on by debris. So was the
anemometer at the Diamondhead Fire department, which failed at 144 MPH.

I see rooftop structures peeled off of condominiums and tossed like
leaves. This in an area 40-60 feet above MSL, so it's clearly a wind
event.

I see large number of trees leveled - gone.

Nothing personal here, but as I mentioned before, we went to war based
on satellite "intelligence". In hindsight, every intelligence agency stated
clearly that we needed on the ground intelligence for accurate information.

The same thing applies to this - satellite and radar loops only tell you so
much of the story. Coming here, looking at physical evidence, measure
debris lines, interview local officials, gather data from local weather stations.

I have yet to hear one person that was here for Camille, an agreed upon
Cat 5, say that Katrina was not as bad as Camille was.

All of this, yet we take the measurements from a guy that was knocked
out and woke up in a tree as the gospel without any reservation (1935
keys hurricane). Nobody questions the calibration of his instruments
or his personal observations. It's carved in stone.


First of all, I'm not debating at all about the storm surge. I wouldn't be able to tell what was actually caused by waves and what was caused by just the surge; I'm not qualified for that. What I am debating is why some people refuse to believe that a Cat 3 produced a Cat 5 surge, since this is what data suggests.

About the anemometers, well since they failed they can't provide conclusive evidence about anything.

I'm not doubting any of your damage observations at all, I'm doubting the perception that only Cat 4 winds can produce that kind of damage, especially given the evidence suggesting a Cat 3. How do you know for certain that only Cat 4 sustained winds can do the damage you observed?

Radar and satellite loops? How Katrina looked on these was never part of the equation. What is is the SFMR, dropsondes, and radar velocity data...and the consistency of several flights showing that this could very well have been a Cat 3 at both landfalls, certainly a Cat 3 in MS.

Regarding Camille, all of those statements were made in reference to the storm surge, NOT wind damage.
0 likes   

jazzfan1247
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 pm

#411 Postby jazzfan1247 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:15 pm

Scorpion wrote:And have you ever seen a 908 mb Category 3 hurricane? It is not right.


Is it incredible? Yes, I personally wouldn't have believed it if Derek hadn't brought up the evidence. But he has, and not only has he brought up the data, he's outlined theories about what may cause this weird pressure/wind relationship. So it may seem unbelievable to us, but keep in mind that we are far from completely understanding the dynamics of hurricanes, and we have much to learn from them, which is why we have these debates and do research.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#412 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:31 pm

and the SFMR CAN measure very high wind speeds

While making flight level data files for storms from the last 2 years, I came across a 112KT Jeanne SFMR near the time of landfall. The instrument does not have a negative bias in the cat 3 regime. Its only in the cat 5 where it can have problems (and thats in recording wind speeds over 140KT, which does not apply to either landfall)
0 likes   

gpickett00
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:47 pm
Location: Satellite Beach Florida
Contact:

#413 Postby gpickett00 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:09 pm

Here in Brevard County Florida we experienced 75 mph sustained winds and 85 mph gusts at most during hurricane Jeanne and Frances. Maybe not even that high. During hurricane Frances there were a few palm trees that I saw that "snapped" around here. Those cases were because they havent sustained that wind before, theyre really skinny, tall and rotted. When you talk about "snapping palm trees" it gives people the impression that there is a 10 foot tree with a 4 foot diameter trunk with perfect health snapping. Any old palm tree will snap with winds.
0 likes   

User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:

#414 Postby TS Zack » Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:38 pm

This thread is so stupid. Its a forum we will all have different opinions on this.

Where the storm hit, we will state what we see. Most people aren't experts on determining how bad the damage is.

Look at Southern Plaquemines Parish. Hello, nothing! I am sure there were 140mph sustained there. In the NO NWS statement issued, they said winds were 140mph in Grand Isle. That is on the Western Portion of the Eyewall.

Stop fighting with each other. It is stupid look what your fighting about. This storm killed many people weather it was a two, three, four, seven, twenty ,tropical storm, tropical wave. It also destroyed the coastline from Morgan City to Pensacola. Then Rita came and took the rest away. I could careless how strong this thing was, it turned my life upside down and is hanging me still.

Wait to see what the NHC says at the end of the year. They will answer all our questions.
0 likes   

jazzfan1247
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 pm

#415 Postby jazzfan1247 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:54 pm

TS Zack wrote:This thread is so stupid. Its a forum we will all have different opinions on this.

Where the storm hit, we will state what we see. Most people aren't experts on determining how bad the damage is.

Look at Southern Plaquemines Parish. Hello, nothing! I am sure there were 140mph sustained there. In the NO NWS statement issued, they said winds were 140mph in Grand Isle. That is on the Western Portion of the Eyewall.

Stop fighting with each other. It is stupid look what your fighting about. This storm killed many people weather it was a two, three, four, seven, twenty ,tropical storm, tropical wave. It also destroyed the coastline from Morgan City to Pensacola. Then Rita came and took the rest away. I could careless how strong this thing was, it turned my life upside down and is hanging me still.

Wait to see what the NHC says at the end of the year. They will answer all our questions.


If you think this thread is so stupid, then don't read it. But my opinion is that this thread is NOT stupid; on the contrary it is vital. Isn't that what this board is for? Debates about tropical cyclones, with everyone having differing opinions? I feel that it is very important that people get the right information about the hurricanes that they have been hit with and lived through. Nobody's debating how much damage this has caused; we all know. We're debating the scientific aspect of it...and how that is stupid I don't know.

Anyways, your statement of "I am sure there were 140mph sustained there" is the kind that prompted me to post on this thread. How do you know? And "I just know" may be an answer to you, but it's certainly not a scientifically credible one. Wind speeds are really indeterminable down there because of all the surge damage, so all we have to base off on is the evidence that Derek has outlined. And the 140 mph winds in Grand Isle, I am pretty certain that this is a gust...which if so wouldn't really say anything as Cat 2 sustained can produce that kind of gust, and it wouldn't be too unreasonable to conclude that Katrina could've been a Cat 3 at LA landfall.

I am terribly sorry about your loss, but for those of us who haven't been affected by this, what else can we do but debate the intensity of it? It's very important to know from a public relations and scientific standpoint.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#416 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:00 pm

Jazz...the 140mph winds is pretty much a given in Plaquemines Parish since the recorded 140mph winds in Grand Isle are WEST of Plaquemines Parish. Just give it up already. Yea...the scientific data states otherwise, but the proof is on the ground.
Last edited by skysummit on Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#417 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:00 pm

Zack,

my advice to you is not to so quickly dismiss the finding of others based upon science as stupid. You will not make your quest to enter the field any easier, regardless as to how many TV appearances you have had in New Orleans
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#418 Postby skysummit » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Zack,

my advice to you is not to so quickly dismiss the finding of others based upon science as stupid. You will not make your quest to enter the field any easier, regardless as to how many TV appearances you have had in New Orleans


Derek...that's not too much of a professional response either from a Professional Met.
0 likes   

jazzfan1247
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:02 pm

#419 Postby jazzfan1247 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:09 pm

skysummit wrote:Jazz...the 140mph winds is pretty much a given in Plaquemines Parish since the recorded 140mph winds in Grand Isle are WEST of Plaquemines Parish. Just give it up already. Yea...the scientific data states otherwise, but the proof is on the ground.


Just out of curiosity, can you or somebody post a link to this 140 mph gust report at Grand Isle, because I can't find it. That would be appreciated thanks.

We get the proof from the scientific data; there is no separation between the two, and for some reason many here can't grasp that.
0 likes   

User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:

#420 Postby TS Zack » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:30 pm

In Katrina (2005), landfall wind speeds at Grand Isle, Louisiana were approximately 140 mph with a central pressure of 920mb - the 3rd lowest on record for a landfalling Atlantic storm in the US. The above information is courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Derek, where did I ever say anything about me being on TV. You have so much room to talk with the way you just responded. I have always had respect for you until your statement just now. You are beginning to sound like Joe Bastardi with this wise information.

We are debating the obvious. That is what I am saying. NWS says above 140mph in Grand Isle. In the Western Portion of the eyewall, therefore the East Side is stronger. I don't think this storm was anything below 140mph. No debating a Cat 3. They say CAT 4!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 287 guests