Katrina H-Wind Analysis, marginal 3 at landfall

[jazzfan1247]

That's a GUST

"EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTERS...PEAK GUST OBSERVED BEFORE
WIND EQUIPMENT WAS BLOWN DOWN...."

[skysummit]

If this was indeed a Cat 3 then Hurricane Jeanne and Dennis need to be looked at, as well as countless other hurricanes that made landfall. I find it ridiculous how a 908 mb hurricane can be a Cat 3.

The post of the day, thank you! I'm shocked that we continue to waste time debating the obvious. Katrina was at least a Cat.4 at landfall you can argue it until you are blue in the face but it is what it is.

How is this obvious? Derek has posted OBJECTIVE scientific analysis from instruments that have been tested over and over. And it's not just the SFMR, it's the dropsondes and the radar wind velocities too. And multiple flights show similar data. How can you make a claim that it's "obvious" this data was wrong? Unbelievable? Yes. Obvious that it's wrong? No...

How about "Obviously Unbelievable"?

[Brett Adair]

If this was indeed a Cat 3 then Hurricane Jeanne and Dennis need to be looked at, as well as countless other hurricanes that made landfall. I find it ridiculous how a 908 mb hurricane can be a Cat 3.

The post of the day, thank you! I'm shocked that we continue to waste time debating the obvious. Katrina was at least a Cat.4 at landfall you can argue it until you are blue in the face but it is what it is.

How is this obvious? Derek has posted OBJECTIVE scientific analysis from instruments that have been tested over and over. And it's not just the SFMR, it's the dropsondes and the radar wind velocities too. And multiple flights show similar data. How can you make a claim that it's "obvious" this data was wrong? Unbelievable? Yes. Obvious that it's wrong? No...

Objective analysis doesn't mean crap when you have the SFC data to back it up. Screw the instruments. They fail just as much as our land based equipment. Another read for you...

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0510032159.wwus41.html

Seems as if some areas in JAN's SE CWA expereinced 110 mph winds. Laurel is what...110 miles inland? I will be glad to see what Tim Marshall of stormtrack finds during his one year stay there.

[jazzfan1247]

I'm sorry if I was misunderstood, I didn't mean unbelievable in the "believability" sense, I meant it more as an incredible to be true sense.

[Brett Adair]

That's a GUST

"EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTERS...PEAK GUST OBSERVED BEFORE
WIND EQUIPMENT WAS BLOWN DOWN...."

Man....this is pointless to argue. Friction of the topographic landmass aided in producing category 4 winds in the NE eyewall as this thing was approaching the MS coastline. The storm surge was catastrophic and no one will ever know just how destructive the winds were. Category 4 rating will remain in tact....I can tell you that. Those gusts are enough evidence given how far inland they occured.

[jazzfan1247]

Again...we are talking GUSTS here, not sustained winds. And 110-115 mph gusts can be caused by Cat 1 sustained winds.

And since when did dropsondes utterly fail? Did those fail during the storm? How about SFMR, did it suddenly stop working? How did we come up with the data then?

[Brett Adair]

Again...we are talking GUSTS here, not sustained winds. And 110-115 mph gusts can be caused by Cat 1 sustained winds.

And since when did dropsondes utterly fail? Did those fail during the storm? How about SFMR, did it suddenly stop working? How did we come up with the data then?

I have no reason to argue this with you. You are making yourself look foolish. There were 2 dropsondes that failed during missions into Katrina. Katrina was a category for in MY OPINION at landfall. The NHC/MOB/LIX/JAN goes along with my thinking. That's all that matters. The discussion here is UNOFFICIAL. Derek Ortt may have posted "Objective Analysis" and such but that will never be the official word unless he can convince the NHC differently. And given that the surge/wind did the damage it did, this thing will never be downgraded...sorry.

[jazzfan1247]

Man....this is pointless to argue. Friction of the topographic landmass aided in producing category 4 winds in the NE eyewall as this thing was approaching the MS coastline. The storm surge was catastrophic and no one will ever know just how destructive the winds were. Category 4 rating will remain in tact....I can tell you that. Those gusts are enough evidence given how far inland they occured.

It is not pointless to argue, this is what science is all about. We need to debate this in order to make sure that people don't insist on this being a stronger storm than it actually was...and therefore educating the public about the dangers of a weaker storm.

[skysummit]

Again...we are talking GUSTS here, not sustained winds. And 110-115 mph gusts can be caused by Cat 1 sustained winds.

And since when did dropsondes utterly fail? Did those fail during the storm? How about SFMR, did it suddenly stop working? How did we come up with the data then?

Man...give it up. If they downgrade Katrina, they'd need to downgrade many, many, MANY other storms. I have seen the damage...I have been there for weeks and weeks...and it's clearly cat 4 damage. I'm NOT talking about storm surge, I'm talking about 20-50 miles inland of homes and structures completely gone off their foundations. I don't believe that type of destruction is listed in the classification of Cat 1, 2, or 3 storms. People need to get off their @ss, get out from behind their computers, and get the hell down there to witness it for themselves. Stop listening to the news, stop looking at the pics on the net, and see it for yourself. The damage is very widespread, but there are very small areas of total devistation WELL inland, NOT from surge. I have done recovery for MANY other storms, and this is clearly the worst I have ever witnessed.

[Brett Adair]

Man....this is pointless to argue. Friction of the topographic landmass aided in producing category 4 winds in the NE eyewall as this thing was approaching the MS coastline. The storm surge was catastrophic and no one will ever know just how destructive the winds were. Category 4 rating will remain in tact....I can tell you that. Those gusts are enough evidence given how far inland they occured.

It is not pointless to argue, this is what science is all about. We need to debate this in order to make sure that people don't insist on this being a stronger storm than it actually was...and therefore educating the public about the dangers of a weaker storm.

Well, I do have to agree with you on one point there. If you want to talk about a weaker storm...talk about Rita. Cameron was basically wiped out given the storm surge. That storm was much weaker than Katrina. Likely a strong category 2 wind field at landfall.

[jazzfan1247]

I have no reason to argue this with you. You are making yourself look foolish. There were 2 dropsondes that failed during missions into Katrina. Katrina was a category for in MY OPINION at landfall. The NHC/MOB/LIX/JAN goes along with my thinking. That's all that matters. The discussion here is UNOFFICIAL. Derek Ortt may have posted "Objective Analysis" and such but that will never be the official word unless he can convince the NHC differently. And given that the surge/wind did the damage it did, this thing will never be downgraded...sorry.

Ok, I'll give you the two dropsondes...but what about all those other dropsondes that didn't fail? And you still didn't address the other flights that showed simliar data, or the SFMR, or the radar wind velocity data. Those certainly didn't fail. Yes, you are entitled to your own opinion, there's nothing I can do about that.

And as far as "this thing will never be downgraded"...well this as of now is already a Cat 3 at MS landfall. I believe you are talking about LA then?

[Brett Adair]

I have no reason to argue this with you. You are making yourself look foolish. There were 2 dropsondes that failed during missions into Katrina. Katrina was a category for in MY OPINION at landfall. The NHC/MOB/LIX/JAN goes along with my thinking. That's all that matters. The discussion here is UNOFFICIAL. Derek Ortt may have posted "Objective Analysis" and such but that will never be the official word unless he can convince the NHC differently. And given that the surge/wind did the damage it did, this thing will never be downgraded...sorry.

Ok, I'll give you the two dropsondes...but what about all those other dropsondes that didn't fail? And you still didn't address the other flights that showed simliar data, or the SFMR, or the radar wind velocity data. Those certainly didn't fail. Yes, you are entitled to your own opinion, there's nothing I can do about that.

And as far as "this thing will never be downgraded"...well this as of now is already a Cat 3 at MS landfall. I believe you are talking about LA then?

Correct, I do generally mean LA landfall. I don't expect to see the MS landfall upgraded either given that this is generally a good call on intensity on both sides IMO. We aren't really able to do a land damage survey at all given the force of the storm surge. The real truth will never be known...

[Huckster]

I think this discussion has gotten off track. Are we talking about the Louisiana landfall or the Mississippi landfall? If we're talking about a Mississippi landfall, then what windspeed are we talking about? 120? 130? What? Even if we're talking about 120 at landfall in Mississippi, I think it's conceivable that the storm may have weakened at least 15 mph from its first landfall in Louisiana, which would make it 135 mph. Even though eastern Louisian is very low and marshy, I find it hard to believe that Katrina could have made landfall as a cat. 3 in LA (let's say 130 mph) and still produced cat. 3 and possibly cat. 4 gusts all the way into the Jones/Forrest County area. Just a guess. If I'm wrong, then that would prove that SE Louisiana is even less effective at weakening hurricanes than I thought. By the way, someone mentioned a 114 mph wind gust 40 miles east of where the storm made landfall. There are no corroborating reports that back that up. Forty miles to the west of the eye at landfall in LA would probably only have yielded Cat. 1 gusts, possibly cat. 2.

[Brett Adair]

I think this discussion has gotten off track. Are we talking about the Louisiana landfall or the Mississippi landfall? If we're talking about a Mississippi landfall, then what windspeed are we talking about? 120? 130? What? Even if we're talking about 120 at landfall in Mississippi, I think it's conceivable that the storm may have weakened at least 15 mph from its first landfall in Louisiana, which would make it 135 mph. Even though eastern Louisian is very low and marshy, I find it hard to believe that Katrina could have made landfall as a cat. 3 in LA (let's say 130 mph) and still produced cat. 3 and possibly cat. 4 gusts all the way into the Jones/Forrest County area. Just a guess. If I'm wrong, then that would prove that SE Louisiana is even less effective at weakening hurricanes than I thought. By the way, someone mentioned a 114 mph wind gust 40 miles east of where the storm made landfall. There are no corroborating reports that back that up. Forty miles to the west of the eye at landfall in LA would probably only have yielded Cat. 1 gusts, possibly cat. 2.

Pearl River County EOC registered a 135 mph wind before the instrument failed. I say 140 in Plaquemines Parish, LA and 125 near Bay St. Louis.

[skysummit]

I think this discussion has gotten off track. Are we talking about the Louisiana landfall or the Mississippi landfall? If we're talking about a Mississippi landfall, then what windspeed are we talking about? 120? 130? What? Even if we're talking about 120 at landfall in Mississippi, I think it's conceivable that the storm may have weakened at least 15 mph from its first landfall in Louisiana, which would make it 135 mph. Even though eastern Louisian is very low and marshy, I find it hard to believe that Katrina could have made landfall as a cat. 3 in LA (let's say 130 mph) and still produced cat. 3 and possibly cat. 4 gusts all the way into the Jones/Forrest County area. Just a guess. If I'm wrong, then that would prove that SE Louisiana is even less effective at weakening hurricanes than I thought. By the way, someone mentioned a 114 mph wind gust 40 miles east of where the storm made landfall. There are no corroborating reports that back that up. Forty miles to the west of the eye at landfall in LA would probably only have yielded Cat. 1 gusts, possibly cat. 2.

Huckster....that was me who said the 114mph 40 miles west of landfall. Now that I measured it, it's actually 30 miles west. I stayed at our office building for the storm. It has 3' thick concrete walls and ceiling, and has bullet proof glass. It's built to withstand a hurricane. Our anemometer at the office broke on a 114mph wind gust.

[jazzfan1247]

Pearl River County EOC registered a 135 mph wind before the instrument failed. I say 140 in Plaquemines Parish, LA and 125 near Bay St. Louis.

Wait, so why did you point this out then...a MS obs:

POPLARVILLE - PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS EOC PEAK 117 KT

135 mph supports a Category 4....especially with that reading coming some 40 miles inland.

Btw, personally I think that a Cat 4 landfall (if it happened) is more likely in LA than in MS. We'll see how it turns out though as the analysis is done, but at the present time the evidence points to Cat 3 at both landfalls, so we'll see.

[skysummit]

Pearl River County EOC registered a 135 mph wind before the instrument failed. I say 140 in Plaquemines Parish, LA and 125 near Bay St. Louis.

Wait, so why did you point this out then...a MS obs:

POPLARVILLE - PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS EOC PEAK 117 KT

135 mph supports a Category 4....especially with that reading coming some 40 miles inland.

Btw, personally I think that a Cat 4 landfall (if it happened) is more likely in LA than in MS. We'll see how it turns out though as the analysis is done, but at the present time the evidence points to Cat 3 at both landfalls, so we'll see.

Oh GOD...now you're going to say it was even a Cat 3 when it crossed over Plaquemines Parish??? Come on!

This debate has gotten way out of hand. I now withdraw my opinion from it.

[jazzfan1247]

Oh GOD...now you're going to say it was even a Cat 3 when it crossed over Plaquemines Parish??? Come on!

Well, that's what the scientific evidence currently suggests, and I have no reason to question that until further objective evidence states otherwise.

[Brett Adair]

Pearl River County EOC registered a 135 mph wind before the instrument failed. I say 140 in Plaquemines Parish, LA and 125 near Bay St. Louis.

Wait, so why did you point this out then...a MS obs:

POPLARVILLE - PEARL RIVER COUNTY MS EOC PEAK 117 KT

135 mph supports a Category 4....especially with that reading coming some 40 miles inland.

Btw, personally I think that a Cat 4 landfall (if it happened) is more likely in LA than in MS. We'll see how it turns out though as the analysis is done, but at the present time the evidence points to Cat 3 at both landfalls, so we'll see.

Dude, it was a Category FOUR gust 40 miles inland is the point. Take a zanex and collect your thoughts.

[f5]

as we continue to debate Katrina's intensity one thing we won't have to debate is that Katrina was nature's atomic bomb