90E Invest at EPAC

[jasons2k]

Anyone know WHY this gets a new name when Ivan last year didn't. I know with Ivan they were able to track the circulation all the way back, but isn't this just the same?

[HURAKAN]

Anyone know WHY this gets a new name when Ivan last year didn't. I know with Ivan they were able to track the circulation all the way back, but isn't this just the same?

This system is not just the remnants of Stan, but mix with the existing disturbance that was there before Stan entering the picture. Something like TD 10 that later became TD 12.

[O Town]

Just wondering does this happen often an atlantic hurricane or atlantic hurricane name, passes over into the pacific and gets a new name. Has it happened before? It just seems like they usually die when they hit the mountains and never regenerate. Thanks. By the way it is starting to look really good, getting its act back together in a hurry.

[senorpepr]

Just wondering does this happen often an atlantic hurricane or atlantic hurricane name, passes over into the pacific and gets a new name. Has it happened before? It just seems like they usually die when they hit the mountains and never regenerate. Thanks. By the way it is starting to look really good, getting its act back together in a hurry.

It happens every few years. Back in 1996, Hurricane Cesar struck Mexico, crossed over, and become Hurricane Douglas.

Now (and this is me just being silly here), the models last night actually had the system moving back toward the northeast. So, imagine it becoming Pilar. Crossing back over and becoming Vince. That would be crazy. However... the latest models don't show that anymore, so as I said... I was just being silly.

[Hurricanehink]

Just wondering does this happen often an atlantic hurricane or atlantic hurricane name, passes over into the pacific and gets a new name. Has it happened before? It just seems like they usually die when they hit the mountains and never regenerate. Thanks. By the way it is starting to look really good, getting its act back together in a hurry.

It happens every few years. Back in 1996, Hurricane Cesar struck Mexico, crossed over, and become Hurricane Douglas.

Now (and this is me just being silly here), the models last night actually had the system moving back toward the northeast. So, imagine it becoming Pilar. Crossing back over and becoming Vince. That would be crazy. However... the latest models don't show that anymore, so as I said... I was just being silly.

The very thing happened in 1961. Hurricane Hattie hit Central America as Cat. 5. It entered the EPAC, and was assigned the name Simone. Simone turned northward, and when it reformed in the GOM, it became TS Inga. It was the storm with three names.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061059
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT THU OCT 6 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY CONCENTRATED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO VALLARTA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL DO NOT YET INDICATE THAT A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. HOWEVER... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... IS POSSIBLE FROM
ACAPULCO NORTHWESTWARD TO PUERTO VALLARTA... ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS... DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

[bombarderoazul]

EPAC Cheaters ...They are just tring to catch up with the ATL...

Yeah! the Epac is playing catch up! also the Wpac has been rather quiet this year, I think they are tied with the Atl right now with 19 storms.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061721Z OCT 05//
WTPN 21 PHNC 061730
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051721Z OCT 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 051730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 130 NM RADIUS OF 18.0N 104.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS
SCHEDULED FOR 071200Z.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//




As many know when they issue these alerts that is a prior step to upgrade the system.

[gilbert88]

Here comes Pili.

[deltadog03]

i think the GFDL has this coming back into mx and coming into southern TX...hmmm

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061721Z OCT 05//
WTPN 21 PHNC 061730
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051721Z OCT 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 051730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 130 NM RADIUS OF 18.0N 104.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS
SCHEDULED FOR 071200Z.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//




As many know when they issue these alerts that is a prior step to upgrade the system.

Except that this is the 3rd time a TCFA has been issued for this disturbance!