93L Invest

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #261 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:02 pm

Deep convective bursts off to the SE of the center, allow this to wrap
around and allow the MLC to align properly with LLC and we could
get quick development- similar to how Tammy formed quickly

krysof · #262 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:03 pm

94L is getting better organized, 93L still has shear which is expected to decrease by 5 to 10 knots or enough for development, but it's moving quickly so any tropical development will be lessened.

Opal storm · #263 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:04 pm

Brent wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:all the nasty weather is to the east which is headed straight for south florida! maybe an indication of were this entire is going to move ENE. opinions.

No... it's very disorganized and appears to be sheared. It seems to be running out of time to do much of significance. Looking more and more like a big rain event for Florida...

Even if it does develop it will still just be a big rain event for FL.I think it will become a td/weak T.S just before hitting the coast,sort of like Tammy.

rainydaze · #264 Postby **rainydaze** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:04 pm

Florida is about to be engulfed in trpoical weather. :lightning:

I guess this is the calm before the storm

wxwonder12 · #265 Postby **wxwonder12** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:10 pm

I don't want to get slammed like CHRISTY does for every comment she makes but, it does look as if S Fl is going to get alot of weather and I think the is right about that. Not that it is going to be anything more than a rain maker, it is going to be wet in S Florida.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #266 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:11 pm

Any ideas where the MLC is at? Regarding its merge with LLC...

chadtm80 · #267 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:12 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Storms that have impacted Florida so far this year:

1. Arlene TS
2. Dennis Major Hurricane
3. Katrina 90 mph Hurricane in South Florida
4. Ophelia- East Central FL Coast
5. Rita- Keys and South FL; TS Conditions
6. Stan- Gusty Bands
7. Tammy- TS force gusts across the peninsula and into NE FL

Add that to last year's bonnie, charley, frances, ivan, jeanne and you
got 12 Systems to Impact Florida since August 2004

Arlene
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Dennis
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Katrina
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Ophelia
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Rita
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Tammy
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #268 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:13 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Storms that have impacted Florida so far this year:

1. Arlene TS
2. Dennis Major Hurricane
3. Katrina 90 mph Hurricane in South Florida
4. Ophelia- East Central FL Coast
5. Rita- Keys and South FL; TS Conditions
6. Stan- Gusty Bands
7. Tammy- TS force gusts across the peninsula and into NE FL

Add that to last year's bonnie, charley, frances, ivan, jeanne and you
got 12 Systems to Impact Florida since August 2004

Arlene
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Dennis
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Katrina
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Ophelia
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Rita
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

Tammy
http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=

LOL since it was off the 93L topic I made a thread

for it

floridahurricaneguy · #269 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:20 pm

StormFury wrote:
floridahurricaneguy wrote:miami? what you smokin?

Wow! that was harsh. You seem like a WISH-CASTER, especially after I saw one of your earlier comments where you wrote something like "So it's not heading to Tampa? "

Not trying to be harsh. But when you make a comment totally off from models you should back it up with something. Not really wishcast. Kinda want it to head to tampa so we get some rain here. Also I thought many people thought that so I was confused.

Matt

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #270 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:27 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and
should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of
the poster and may or may not be backed by sound
meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any
professional institution including storm2k.org For
Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Once the Shear lets up
93L will explode...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

Convection blowing up on East and SE sides
once the MLC converges over the LLC within the
next 24 hours- BOOM! yesterday it boomed over
land over yucatan- those cloud tops were
horribly high! :eek:

Very positive MOIST MJO the highest in the basin
is over 93L

#271 Postby **Noah** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:31 pm

Ok, what is considered south florida, sarasota south? Central florida tampa? ANd north florida? I am talking all on the west coast . I keep hearing rain maker for south florida. AS long as i have lived in sarasota, its been called south florida, now people are calling port charlotte south, south florida. :roll:

DESTRUCTION5 · #272 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:32 pm

Noah wrote:Ok, what is considered south florida, sarasota south? Central florida tampa? ANd north florida? I am talking all on the west coast . I keep hearing rain maker for south florida. AS long as i have lived in sarasota, its been called south florida, now people are calling port charlotte south, south florida.

WPB south...So you can Draw the line ...

#273 Postby **canetracker** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:33 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005100518&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
1800 run of GFS is interesting. Looks like it hinges on a slightly slower moving cold front.

cinlfla · #274 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:36 pm

First question. If the cold front is slower what effect will that have on Tammy and the invest in the GOM. Also is that Tammy moving into the GOM and crossing Florida again?

Website · #275 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:38 pm

cinlfla wrote:First question. If the cold front is slower what effect will that have on Tammy and the invest in the GOM. Also is that Tammy moving into the GOM and crossing Florida again?

Slower cold front-Tammy continues NW into AL/GA and then may eventually turn southward... but it would be very slow to occur.

rainydaze · #276 Postby **rainydaze** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:38 pm

I would go with Palm Beach County Line then south. Especially since I am in North Palm Beach and considered myself SoFla all my life

What do the west coasters consider the line for SoFLa?

hurricanedude · #277 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:41 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

PATHETIC!!!
I am sorry...just looks to hostile in the environment to develop.....

jrod · #278 Postby **jrod** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:44 pm

My unprofessional forecast with disclaimer implied: The center will hit around ft myers pass on the north side of lake Okachobee and exit a little south of Cape Canaveral. The north side of this system will be the worse and will likely see much worse weather than those in the center and south.
The intesity will be around 50knots at landfall with gusts to hurricane force possible.

Im pretty sure NHC never has gotten to the V name on the list and if this once gets a name it will be Vince. What a season!

Rainband · #279 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:44 pm

hurricanedude wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

PATHETIC!!!
I am sorry...just looks to hostile in the environment to develop.....

Time will tell.

#280 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:45 pm

wxwonder12 wrote:I don't want to get slammed like CHRISTY does for every comment she makes but, it does look as if S Fl is going to get alot of weather and I think the is right about that. Not that it is going to be anything more than a rain maker, it is going to be wet in S Florida.

its not slamming, its clled the christy, yes we will get lots of rain here

93L Invest

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