93L Invest

#141 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:13 pm

Cuban radar:

[img]http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/Maximos(Animacion).gif[/img]

hurricanedude · #142 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:15 pm

well said christy!!!
but all we are asking for is hard concrete evidence to back up your thoughts...why do you think the Keys will get hit? instead of IMO...tell us why you have this opinion, and back it up with facts

#143 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:16 pm

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
18N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

2 PM Special Feature Discussion.

MiamiensisWx · #144 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:17 pm

The trough coming through as the result of the front may weaken the ridge enough so that INVEST.93L may be further east and make landfall in Florida further south. Still early, though...

MiamiensisWx · #145 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:23 pm

Here is the latest possible danger area map from the National Hurricane Center...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085102.shtml?basin?large

Amanzi · #146 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:25 pm

This thread is to be used in the discussion of the topic at hand. Please refrain from any mean and nasty comments. This is my last warning about the bickering and snippy comments. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

If you dont have something nice to say, keep your fingers off the key board!

nequad · #147 Postby **nequad** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:26 pm

As posted on the other page- buoy 42056 is reporting west wind after reporting SE winds all morning. There is a closed low over the NW Caribbean sea right now. This day just gets more interesting at every turn.

JTD · #148 Postby **JTD** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:29 pm

nequad wrote:As posted on the other page- buoy 42056 is reporting west wind after reporting SE winds all morning. There is a closed low over the NW Caribbean sea right now. This day just gets more interesting at every turn.

Is that 93L or different? :eek:

nccoastalgirl · #149 Postby **nccoastalgirl** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:30 pm

hurricanedude wrote:well said christy!!!
but all we are asking for is hard concrete evidence to back up your thoughts...why do you think the Keys will get hit? instead of IMO...tell us why you have this opinion, and back it up with facts

Personally, I was under the impression that in the Talkin Tropics forum we could all express our opinions, whether or not we have "expert" analysis to back what we're saying up. I thought the Tropical Analysis forum was created for those that didn't want to read just general opinions. I'm not trying to be a mean lady here, but I just don't understand why everyone is so harsh lately towards certain members in particular. If people don't want to answer Christy's questions, then just don't answer them. But y'all don't have to freak out every time she or, for example, dixiebreeze posts something, especially, in my opinion, in this particular forum. If you want cut and dry, no-nonsense analysis, then you're probably better off sticking to reading the Tropical Analysis forum. Talkin Tropics is for just that--talking! Or at least that's the way I thought this board was intended to be set up.........

#150 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:30 pm

nequad wrote:As posted on the other page- buoy 42056 is reporting west wind after reporting SE winds all morning. There is a closed low over the NW Caribbean sea right now. This day just gets more interesting at every turn.

Ok what does that mean... Not being a smartie.. I honestly don't know!

Amanzi · #151 Postby **Amanzi** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:32 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
nequad wrote:As posted on the other page- buoy 42056 is reporting west wind after reporting SE winds all morning. There is a closed low over the NW Caribbean sea right now. This day just gets more interesting at every turn.

Ok what does that mean... Not being a smartie.. I honestly don't know!

tracy... I wish I knew as well. Seems like every corner of the ocean has something going on. I have no clue whats going on where. :lol:

JTD · #152 Postby **JTD** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:33 pm

tracyswfla wrote:
nequad wrote:As posted on the other page- buoy 42056 is reporting west wind after reporting SE winds all morning. There is a closed low over the NW Caribbean sea right now. This day just gets more interesting at every turn.

Ok what does that mean... Not being a smartie.. I honestly don't know!

Tracy, if there is a west wind for 93L, in all likelihood, that means 93L is a tropical depression.

Once a tropical wave gets a west wind and a closed LLC, it becomes a depression (from my understanding which is very amateurish)

Amanzi, I second that. This day is stunning. :eek:

The tropics are literally exploding.

nequad · #153 Postby **nequad** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:33 pm

It just means there is more organization with respects to 93 then I had earlier thought. I wasn't sure there was any reflection at the surface. What it really means to me is that further development "could" occur at any time...but I think upper level conditions are marginal right now...at best.

#154 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:34 pm

Thank you for all of your replies... Since I can't look at a loop, what direction is it heading? Thanks

#155 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:35 pm

tracyswfla wrote:Thank you for all of your replies... Since I can't look at a loop, what direction is it heading? Thanks

really?...kinda toward you at the moment.

#156 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051005 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 0600 051006 1800 051007 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 86.7W 22.2N 85.8W 24.0N 85.0W 26.1N 84.6W
BAMM 20.7N 86.7W 22.1N 85.8W 23.8N 84.7W 25.8N 83.8W
A98E 20.7N 86.7W 21.7N 86.0W 23.3N 84.9W 25.5N 84.1W
LBAR 20.7N 86.7W 21.9N 86.2W 23.3N 85.5W 25.7N 86.2W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1800 051008 1800 051009 1800 051010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.5N 83.9W 34.8N 78.7W 41.2N 72.4W 45.2N 66.9W
BAMM 28.4N 82.3W 33.8N 76.6W 38.2N 71.4W 41.4N 68.6W
A98E 27.8N 83.1W 31.9N 80.6W 36.7N 75.9W 40.2N 73.2W
LBAR 27.7N 86.2W 31.7N 83.3W 35.1N 77.6W 38.7N 72.7W
SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 62KTS 52KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 48KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 86.7W DIRCUR = 35DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.6N LONM12 = 87.3W DIRM12 = 48DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 88.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.

#157 Postby **tracyswfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:36 pm

skysummit wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:Thank you for all of your replies... Since I can't look at a loop, what direction is it heading? Thanks

really?...kinda toward you at the moment.

That is what I thought..... I have a naggin feeling to do all of my laundry. LOL usually means a storm is soon to be named. :lol:

CHRISTY · #158 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:40 pm

so is that 35 DEG is NE?

Recurve · #159 Postby **Recurve** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:42 pm

Thanks to for posting the explanation about the MRF.

[removed comments -- mod said it]

#160 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 1:42 pm

CHRISTY wrote:so is that 35 DEG is NE?

45 degrees would be northeast so this is just a tad north of northeast.

93L Invest

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