Why is their a flood watch for S FL

[boca]

Tammy is off Cape Canavereal and moving generally NNW away from S FL so I just don't get the flood watch its sunny outside.

[caneseddy]

I think the reason why is because of the "Son of Stan" down by Yucatan that is forecast to move in this direction combined with the cold front that is coming on down so

[jlauderdal]

Tammy is off Cape Canavereal and moving generally NNW away from S FL so I just don't get the flood watch its sunny outside.

flood watch in effect starting tonight. it could all change but based on the pattern developing it seems warranted, enjoy the nice weather.

[skysummit]

Tammy is off Cape Canavereal and moving generally NNW away from S FL so I just don't get the flood watch its sunny outside.

flood watch in effect starting tonight. it could all change but based on the pattern developing it seems warranted, enjoy the nice weather.

I agree...it looks like south Florida will get really wet starting tonight!

[fci]

Tammy is off Cape Canavereal and moving generally NNW away from S FL so I just don't get the flood watch its sunny outside.

I think that the local NWS offices are behind and were caught off guard.
I know when I got up this morning and saw clear skies and little wind; that something had developed and moved North.

From our prespective in Palm Beach County; this is just like Ophelia where it developed just off the coast and over us and then moved North taking the weather with it.

Unless something comes up from the Yucatan; or is expected to; then the watches and rain forecasts will go away shortly.

I think the local offices are scrambling to put together new forecast packages and are just a little late at this point

[arlwx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Look at the blob coming off the Yucatan (son of Stan?). Read also this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... a69cc7960b

[CHRISTY]

could this blob develope?

[boca]

Jlauderdale I just saw the sat and I guess the son of Stan is heading this way down by the Yucatan.

[wxcrazytwo]

and it doesn't look good.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76148

[jlauderdal]

Jlauderdale I just saw the sat and I guess the son of Stan is heading this way down by the Yucatan.

Im going to post the miami disco as they explain the setup as well anyomne could. basically plenty of precipitable water to wrok with and low pressure and all that and you have a good setup for rain.

DISCUSSION
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVERGLADES CITY AREA. THIS
TROUGH IS INITIALIZED WELL BY THE GFS BUT IT IS NOT A CLOSED OFF
LOW AS DEPICTED AT 06Z. (NAM MODEL SURPRISINGLY TAKES THIS SYSTEM
WEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN OPEN WAVE). THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
IT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AND SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY NOON.
IN ITS WAKE IS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FEEDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND MORE TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A LOW FORMS ON THE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND EJECTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO
THE LOW SATURDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE STATE SINCE IT SHOWS A
LOW FORMING NEAR THE YUCATAN AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND TO THE KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THEN MODIFIED AIR IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW COMES IN LATER TUESDAY WITH MUCH ANTICIPATED
DRYER AIR.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE QUITE WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FCSTD
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT'S CLOSE TO 2.5" IN A VERY MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW. FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

[MWatkins]

Others have pretty much nailed it.

1. Look at your car or office window. It is covered in moisture. PWATs are forecast to run around 2.5 inches…a ridiculously high number. There is tons of moisture around and as soon as we get a little heating SFL is going to get some serious rain.

2. SFL is going to be in the middle of a trough tailing down from Tammy which is going to set up significant rain once the low in the gulf develops. This is also going to create rain issues.

3. The t-wave axis itself is still going to cross into the gulf by Friday and this is going to cause some rain as well. It will not kick out in a hurry.

4. Whatever happens in the Yucatan will just add to it.

For a full summary…read the overnight AFD from Melbourne FL…I tend to read their discussion whenever I want to get good analysis…for some reason they do a much better job than MFL with the forecast reasoning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

MW

[MWatkins]

Jlauderdale I just saw the sat and I guess the son of Stan is heading this way down by the Yucatan.

Im going to post the miami disco as they explain the setup as well anyomne could. basically plenty of precipitable water to wrok with and low pressure and all that and you have a good setup for rain.

DISCUSSION
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
BROWARD COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVERGLADES CITY AREA. THIS
TROUGH IS INITIALIZED WELL BY THE GFS BUT IT IS NOT A CLOSED OFF
LOW AS DEPICTED AT 06Z. (NAM MODEL SURPRISINGLY TAKES THIS SYSTEM
WEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN OPEN WAVE). THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
IT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AND SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY NOON.
IN ITS WAKE IS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FEEDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND MORE TO THE NORTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A LOW FORMS ON THE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND EJECTS NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO
THE LOW SATURDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED EARLIER TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE STATE SINCE IT SHOWS A
LOW FORMING NEAR THE YUCATAN AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND TO THE KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THEN MODIFIED AIR IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW COMES IN LATER TUESDAY WITH MUCH ANTICIPATED
DRYER AIR.

SO THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE QUITE WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FCSTD
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT'S CLOSE TO 2.5" IN A VERY MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW. FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

No offense intended...made my post before I saw yours re: MFL...

NW

[CHRISTY]

could they be talking about pilar moving threw the keys and south florida?

[mtm4319]

could they be talking about pilar moving threw the keys and south florida?

No, Pilar is a Pacific storm. And technically, Pilar hasn't even formed yet.

[jlauderdal]

Others have pretty much nailed it.

1. Look at your car or office window. It is covered in moisture. PWATs are forecast to run around 2.5 inches…a ridiculously high number. There is tons of moisture around and as soon as we get a little heating SFL is going to get some serious rain.

2. SFL is going to be in the middle of a trough tailing down from Tammy which is going to set up significant rain once the low in the gulf develops. This is also going to create rain issues.

3. The t-wave axis itself is still going to cross into the gulf by Friday and this is going to cause some rain as well. It will not kick out in a hurry.

4. Whatever happens in the Yucatan will just add to it.

For a full summary…read the overnight AFD from Melbourne FL…I tend to read their discussion whenever I want to get good analysis…for some reason they do a much better job than MFL with the forecast reasoning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

MW

Hey everyone,

here is the 10 am disco from miami. I agree with mike about melbourne, this season they seem to be doing a better job analyzing the topics(we pat back of Tony C. at Melbourne NWS) but the new miami disco backs up Mike and is a good read. Actually todays sunny start should only help to get things started. My wife woke up at 7 looked outside and said Jim where are the big rains you have been talking about and it looks calm outside so waht about that TS you have been promising, I just looked at here and said just wait, weather is a funny thing..lol.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

UPDATE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA FROM TROPICAL STORM TAMMY. UPR LEVEL
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
SW THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MID LEVELS. AT THE UPR
LEVELS...UPR LOW NE GULF IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z SNDG SHOWS PWAT
OF AROUND 2.2 INCHES AND THE GPSMET WATER VAPOR RETRIEVALS SHOWS
THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN INCREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS
INCREASE IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE EVAPORATION...THERE IS PLENTY OF SUN AROUND
THIS MORNING...UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW MSTR
CHANNEL OPENING UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE LOCAL AREA. IF
THIS TRENDS CONTINUES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PWAT RISING
ABOVE 2.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA...PLENTY OF HEATING THIS MORNING...AND THE DEEP MSTR...CURRENT
FORECAST IS DEFINITELY ON TRACK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN. IF LOCAL TRAIN ECHO EFFECTS
DEVELOP...THIS WOULD LOCALLY RESULT IN FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AND/OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR THE FLOOD WATCH.

[rainydaze]

I agree j....woke up this morning...open the front door to let kittys out and lo and behold....SUNSHINE! As if that was not shocking enough, I come online and find TS Tammy....way up north of here?!

Can only imagine the NHC mood this am.

[stormernie]

In looking at the visible loop this morning, there is something MLC or even a possible LLC inside north central Yucatan. It seems to be moving on a NE or even ENE direction. Once it gets over water it will be interesting to see if it develops into a depression or a cyclone.

As alway comments are welcome.

[jpigott]

boy, after reading the melbourne and miami nws outlooks as well as Mike Watkins thoughts, it looks like SFL is in for a whole bunch of rain. What kind of rainfall totals are we looking at here (1/2 in., 1-3in., 3-6in., 6in. +) in SFLA. This seems to be like a very complicated set up with Tammy, invest off Yuchatan, trough tailling Tammy, and the coming cold front.

[BocaGirl]

I agree j....woke up this morning...open the front door to let kittys out and lo and behold....SUNSHINE!

Considering that this is the first time we've seen the sun in I can't remember when, I'm going to try to enjoy it now while I can. In this crazy mixed up world, who knows what tomorrow will bring.........

It's actually a lovely afternoon, with bright sunshine!

BocaGirl
Barbara

[Patrick99]

I don't think I've ever seen such a busted weather forecast as today. Incredible.

Yeah, there was a ton of condensation on my car windows this morning, but that hasn't translated into ANY rain, and it really seems to have dried out this afternoon.