93L Invest

#41 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:21 am

skysummit wrote:It looks like it'll ride the weakness?

they usually do.

#42 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:22 am

cinlfla wrote:Air Force Met is this disturbance over the Yuc going to be the Hybrid you were talking about in your post. I can't find the post or I would qoute it.

No...this is tropical. Note all the convection where the lowest pressure is. Any deepening (pressure falls) with this system will be due to baroclinic processes. What happens when it starts interacting with the front remains to be seen. If you look at a vis loop of Tammy...you can see an elongated shear axis extending out to her SW.That is what was the main setup for hybrid development. There is still a lot of spinning out there but I think it will be absorbed by "V". The dry air from the front will wrap into the system if it moves slow enough. Should make for some interesting weather on the west coast of FL.

tw861 · #43 Postby **tw861** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:23 am

I just got up so I haven't has time to digest everything, but there seems to be a spin right over the central Yucatan...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/GMEX/RGB_loop.html

It looks to me like it is a mid level circulation, could this maybe be Stan's mlc ? Looks like its moving ENE.

Thoughts anyone ?

DESTRUCTION5 · #44 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:23 am

skysummit wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:well seems to me that theres alot of dry air in the gulf and with this front coming i kinda this will get squashed to the ENE . some models have this coming threw the keys and south florida.

We're all just messing with you Christy. We've gotten to know you really well these last few days

Yes I don't by the 29 yr old thing...I need proof! LOL

#45 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:25 am

boca_chris wrote:the possible center is over the Yucatan still so most of the convection is off to the east. It looks like it is moving ENE but actually the center is moving NE...once it gets over water watch out

Yep..once that MLC hooks up with the convection over water...booom.

Website · #46 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:25 am

11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

cinlfla · #47 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:25 am

No...this is tropical. Note all the convection where the lowest pressure is. Any deepening (pressure falls) with this system will be due to baroclinic processes. What happens when it starts interacting with the front remains to be seen. If you look at a vis loop of Tammy...you can see an elongated shear axis extending out to her SW.That is what was the main setup for hybrid development. There is still a lot of spinning out there but I think it will be absorbed by "V". The dry air from the front will wrap into the system if it moves slow enough. Should make for some interesting weather on the west coast of FL.

Thank For taking the time to post this. I understand now

#48 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:27 am

Air Force Met wrote:
boca_chris wrote:the possible center is over the Yucatan still so most of the convection is off to the east. It looks like it is moving ENE but actually the center is moving NE...once it gets over water watch out

Yep..once that MLC hooks up with the convection over water...booom.

Why are the models initializing off the coast of the Yucatan when the low is still over land?

CHRISTY · #49 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:28 am

thats my point! i think the front thats coming will shove it ENE.

#50 Postby **seaswing** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:28 am

This may sound really stupid but the UKMET appears to be picking up on Tammy? is there any possibility that the two storms could intersect (fujiwara effect) each other? UKMET really looks strange.....

#51 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:29 am

skysummit wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
boca_chris wrote:the possible center is over the Yucatan still so most of the convection is off to the east. It looks like it is moving ENE but actually the center is moving NE...once it gets over water watch out

Yep..once that MLC hooks up with the convection over water...booom.

Why are the models initializing off the coast of the Yucatan when the low is still over land?

I think the sfc low is near the water...it's the mid level vort max that will link up with it...

mtm4319 · #52 Postby **mtm4319** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:31 am

Any chance that Tammy (moving NW) and 93L/possible Vince (moving NE) will get close enough to produce a Fujiwara effect? Or is that ULL in the Gulf going to keep them far enough apart to prohibit that?

#53 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:39 am

Brent wrote:11:30am TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.

Maybe the models will shift North.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #54 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:43 am

Once the MLC and LLC meet up we could have a Tropical Storm
Vince by 11 PM.

CHRISTY · #55 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:43 am

actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

#56 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:44 am

The ETA has been advertising this low for several runs now and this the latest I can find........

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

jax · #57 Postby **jax** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:47 am

CHRISTY wrote:actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #58 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:50 am

jax wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

NOO!!!! GO AWAY STORM!!!

#59 Postby **O Town** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:50 am

Went to lunch and came back, and now 2 new invests!!??? What the....?
Here we go again. :crazyeyes:

#60 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:51 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
jax wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:actually i think the center may reform more east were all the convection is? opinions.

NHC says it's moving NNE....

NOO!!!! GO AWAY STORM!!!

LOL....awh..come on...you need a turn too!

93L Invest

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