Tammy

[HurricaneGirl]

TRRRRRRROPICAL!!

[cinlfla]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

[no advance]

Over 82 water if it is not pure tropical now it will be in a few hrs. Especially if the upper low moves alittle west.

[Dean4Storms]

CMC was all over this development last Tues., check it out.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[skysummit]

I see what AFM is talking about...and has been talking about yesterday. Tammy is not purely Tropical. Look at her....she's all on the east side. If her motion continues, Florida may only get a few drops of rain, and Georgia and the Carolinas would be getting all the moisture.

[no advance]

Very interesting Deano Cmc

[DESTRUCTION5]

CMC was all over this development last Tues., check it out.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I said the CMC caught Katrina too...Its was the 1st to point out dev on both..

[Air Force Met]

Thunder maybe they are debating if it is subtropical or tropical?

No, they seem to be agree that tropical in the TWO. I think they took look to come up with a forecast.

They call it tropical because there was a big stink last year about sub-tropical cyclones. To avoid the confusion for those who don't know any better (and really...it's only a big deal to mets...to the average joe the effects are the same)...they call them tropical. However, if you look at the data...it has a lot of hybrid characteristics.

1) Large wind field. Edited to add: Especially one that is well removed from the center. If you look at the buoy reports...the strongest winds are east of Jax and Georgia. Winds within 40 miles of the center are not that bad at all.
2) Area of low pressure moved 200+ miles in 7 hours...towards an area that did not have a deep convective burst...but rather a nice area of diffluence aloft on the east side of a low (like you would see in a baroclinic system).
3) It's on the east side of an upper low with about 20-30 knots zipping over the top of it...and it's still deepening...which means only one thing...baroclinic deepening of the low.
4) To expand on the above: The system is deepning without a lot of convection near the center...and all the heavy convection is well east. That means the process of deepening is occuring in some other way that is not tropical (if it was tropical/barotropic deepening we would see lots of convection right over the center).
5) If you look on radar...it has a tail
6) If you didn't know it was Tammy...and looked at Satallite not knowing what time of year it was...you would think it was some sort of extratropical low.

It certainly isn't purely tropical...if it was...the pressure center would not have jumped 200 miles into an area with no deep convection and it would not be deepening with 20-30 knots of shear over it.

But...the bottom line is the diff b/w a hybrid and a truly tropical storm is only important to the meteorological discussion...not to the effects. So...the only peopole who really care are 1) Mets...and 2) People who really want a tropical system and can't stand the idea that what they are getting is not a true tropical storm

LOL..AFM its time to concede...

If it looks tropical and smells tropical it must be tropical...

Tammy is purely Tropical...

No it's not. We can have a difference of opinion here...and that's fine. HOwever, I would like YOU to explain to ME the tropical means by which a low formed 200+ miles NNW in an area of no deep convection and high shear. Go ahead...give me the meteorological facts behind it. Tell me HOW a purely tropical low deepens and reforms absent of convection.

Go ahead...tell me how that happens short of a barcoclinic process. Your explainantion better be a good one.

I'll be waiting. All I need is the meteorological process for deepening a tropical cyclone without teh baroclinic means available to do it.

Have fun trying.

[EFrancis]

I get up this morning, I'm barely awake and I reach for the remote.

I turn it on, the Weather Channel was already on, and the first I thing I hear is "...and tropical storm advisories are issues from Cocoa Beach to (somewhere), but the path of Tammy is not certain yet."

I pretty much bolted out of bed. What a shock. I'm sure this was repeated.

[Air Force Met]

Over 82 water if it is not pure tropical now it will be in a few hrs. Especially if the upper low moves alittle west.

And a transition is not out of the question. I jsut think people are a little ignorant (and hey...we are all ignorant of something) by what I am sasying. They are thinking of Ana in 2003 or something like that...and that is NOT what I have been saying. Go back and look at every post I have made and you will see that I was speaking of the low getting going by baroclinic processes. I don't know how many times I have said it...baroclinic...over and over. I have also said it really makes no difference because the two are very close and in this way (baroclinic) it is "hybrid-like."

But...people don't see the difference (or understand it)...which is EXACTLY why the NHC has discussed keeping that discussion out of public rhealm...to avoid confusion.

But...for those who want to shout purely tropical...just please tell me how you barotropically deepen and move a low 200 miles in 7 hours without deep convection...in an area of high shear on the east side of an upper low. And really...that is all I have been saying...Baroclinic deepening...and very lop-sided. have I said anything different?

The challenge is there. How does Tammy deepen and move (not right now...but before 5 am this morning) with no convection...without baroclinc processes/

Good luck.

[tallbunch]

All I know is that I have a BBQ on Saturday and it looks like rain.

[FernandinaBchFL]

Not quite sure what you mean by a drop of rain, it's been on again off again rain and wind in Amelia Island since last night, pretty heavy at times. About an inch of rain at the Jacksonville airport today

[skysummit]

Not quite sure what you mean by a drop of rain, it's been on again off again rain and wind in Amelia Island since last night, pretty heavy at times. About an inch of rain at the Jacksonville airport today

Not actually a "drop"....just my way of saying most of the moisture is well offshore and hopefully it stays like that.

[cjrciadt]

Almost 2 inches of rain in Kissimmee in the past 24hrs here, the center almost 80 miles due E of Me!!!!!!1

[vacanechaser]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

I said yesterday this was an east coast storm still think it is... not going to make it into the gulf..

thwe models were seeing lower pressure there due to stan and they jumped the center and development into the gulf... there is an upper low in the northeast gulf that will not allolw this to get into the gulf, not to mention a large trough digging in behind the system to the east... the trough is coming in from the north east and moving southwest.. this would tell me a turn more northerly is the case and will send it further northward than the forecast is even calling for... already looks like the center has pulled offshore closer to the convection... SC NC get ready for heavy rains later in theweek..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[skysummit]

Almost 2 inches of rain in Kissimmee in the past 24hrs here, the center almost 80 miles due E of Me!!!!!!1

Yea...I see that spot. There's one tiny location south of Orlando that has 2.5" of rain so far with this system. Most areas around it are dry...that's nuts.

[no advance]

Thats cool AF. You know your stuff. When I was a kid my dad always looked at the rain totals in the Carib. after tropical waves passed. He believed higher the total more likely there would be development later on. Now fifty yrs later wow internet and stuff. We have really progressed. Noticed most people have flat butts nowadays! It is from sitting on our asses playing with these computers. Thank you for analysis.

[CentralFlGal]

Good morning, Tammy.

Gray skies and rain; less wind than yesterday here in Cocoa Beach.

[Air Force Met]

Some of the models are still showing Tammy getting into the GOM. I would like to know what some of you think about this happaning?

I said yesterday this was an east coast storm still think it is... not going to make it into the gulf..

thwe models were seeing lower pressure there due to stan and they jumped the center and development into the gulf... there is an upper low in the northeast gulf that will not allolw this to get into the gulf, not to mention a large trough digging in behind the system to the east... the trough is coming in from the north east and moving southwest.. this would tell me a turn more northerly is the case and will send it further northward than the forecast is even calling for... already looks like the center has pulled offshore closer to the convection... SC NC get ready for heavy rains later in theweek..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

And that brings me to my other point...did I not say to you yesterday (not that you are doubting it...just need some verification here) that a system moving up the east coast (if that became the dominate center) would be more tropical than hybrid? I just say that because I think some people are selectively forgetting what I have said.

This from yesterday afternoon:

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature.

And this from yesterday morning:
I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...

I just posted these to make sure people know what I have been saying...since people seem to forget.

[jdray]

Bottled water? check
enough food for baby son? check
diapers and wipes? check
food for us? check

have a good feeling even though not an overly strong storm that we will lose power? check.


what a fun thing to wake up to......