Tammy

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 5, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on
dissipating Tropical Depression Stan centered over the state of
oaxaca Mexico.
Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface
circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central
Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending
from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical
cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with
a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to
investigate this system later today.
An disorganized area of disturbed weather is located over Puerto
Rico...Hispaniola and the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected in this area.
Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster Knabb
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like 1995 will have to move a side!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quastion will it be a tropical depression or tropical storm?

[wxwatcher2]

Can plainly see the center of circulation about 40 miles East of Melbourne, Fla

Good day to stay in port and not go fishing offshore.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmlb.shtml

[wxwatcher2]

The quastion will it be a tropical depression or tropical storm?

I think a STORM at least by the end of the day today.

[Thunder44]

Chad Myers on CNN just read the TWO on air. It's a shame when CNN reports this first before TWC.

[Lowpressure]

Radar presentation sure looks better, with a clear LLC forming. May jump right into TS status. It appears to have a northward componet as well. It will be interesting to see once models initialize on recon/radar fix.

[WindRunner]

Chad Myers on CNN just read the TWO on air. It's a shame when CNN reports this first before TWC.

No, it's just plain funny!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chad Myers on CNN just read the TWO on air. It's a shame when CNN reports this first before TWC.

The weather channel has been going to Real shame.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When is this first Advisorie?

[WindRunner]

I'll bet they do a 6:30 one, so I can't look at it.

[ronjon]

Don't expect more than a depression and maybe a short-lived one at that. Looking at Melbourne Radar, the circulation enter is only about 20 miles off shore moving west. Looks to be crossing the peninsula today so not much strengthening gonna happen.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmlb.shtml

[cycloneye]

Thunder you know what I will do with the title of this thread as you got the first news.

[Thunder44]

Thunder you know what I will do with the title of this thread as you got the first news.

yeah go ahead

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tammy has formed!!! Move over 1995!!!

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[WindRunner]

WOOOOHOOO!

[jrod]

I am very close to the center and the weather is decent. It looks like i will be on the dry side of this one. I have to say I am a bit suprised on how north the little center is and the northerly component this has. I though this was going to move due west. Great conditions are setting up for surfing anyway.

[Thunder44]

583
WHXX01 KWBC 051014
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY (AL212005) ON 20051005 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 0600 051005 1800 051006 0600 051006 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.3N 79.7W 29.1N 81.2W 31.0N 82.5W 32.6N 83.5W
BAMM 27.3N 79.7W 28.8N 81.3W 30.2N 82.7W 31.5N 83.6W
A98E 27.3N 79.7W 29.7N 80.9W 31.5N 81.8W 32.7N 81.8W
LBAR 27.3N 79.7W 29.1N 81.0W 31.1N 82.1W 32.6N 82.5W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 0600 051008 0600 051009 0600 051010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 83.6W 41.3N 78.6W 47.0N 70.4W 49.3N 60.8W
BAMM 32.6N 84.1W 36.5N 80.3W 40.7N 75.3W 42.5N 74.3W
A98E 34.2N 80.6W 40.6N 74.8W 47.6N 63.3W 47.9N 46.0W
LBAR 34.6N 81.9W 37.7N 76.0W 39.5N 68.1W 43.1N 61.6W
SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 59KTS 38KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.3N LONCUR = 79.7W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 336DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 23.6N LONM24 = 77.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[jrod]

The storm is to the east of an upper level low and the currents are pushing the storm north.

My barometer has dropped a bit, about 5mb. It is not calibrated so I cant give you the exact reading. I just know it is a bit lower than normal.

[EDR1222]

To me it looks to be moving north on radar unless my eyes are playing tricks early this morning.