92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[hicksta]

God blessed texas. Not flordia!!!

[Windswept]

DISCLAIMER: KEEP IN MIND... I BARELY KNOW WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT.

However

I thought NOGAPS was hinting at this earlier today as well.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... C_area.cgi

Now looks like it is sending something towards No.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yikes-a-roni to those models!!!

[mtm4319]

04/2345 UTC 25.9N 77.2W T1.0/1.0 92

First Dvorak classification at 25 knots.

(Sorry, didn't see this posted 5 pages ago... wow, busy thread tonight!)

[THead]

hold on....so some break-off energy from Stan is now forecasted by the GFS to develop and move NNE across the FL penisula ahead of a cold front???

Wasn't that being hinted at in the model runs last night?

[skysummit]

19.5nm south of Titusville, Florida.....29mph gusting to 51mph

http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/9338/3454hl.png

[superfly]

If a LLC forms, first advisory might be a TS given some of these buoy readings of 30+ kts.

[Recurve]

After 4-5 days of lines of storms moving from NE to SW, I look at the radar a minute ago and a lot of popcorn showers and a line of thunderstorms from Homestead west to north of KW is all moving north. Showers dot the straits from the Keys to Andros and they are all moving north. Something's changed.

[ericinmia]

After 4-5 days of lines of storms moving from NE to SW, I look at the radar a minute ago and a lot of popcorn showers and a line of thunderstorms from Homestead west to north of KW is all moving north. Showers dot the straits from the Keys to Andros and they are all moving north. Something's changed.

This follows the HPC saying that on quickscat they identified an llc south of florida in the straits. This would cause the flow to be out of the south or southeast.
-Eric

EDIT:
Here is the quickscat proof of theory...

[Recurve]

After 4-5 days of lines of storms moving from NE to SW, I look at the radar a minute ago and a lot of popcorn showers and a line of thunderstorms from Homestead west to north of KW is all moving north. Showers dot the straits from the Keys to Andros and they are all moving north. Something's changed.

This follows the HPC saying that on quickscat they identified an llc south of florida in the straits. This would cause the flow to be out of the south or southeast.
-Eric

EDIT:
Here is the quickscat proof of theory...

Bingo. Thanks eric.

[boca]

System 92L moving north while Yucatan system moving East.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Recurve]

Floater 2 now on Bahamas system...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
if that wasn't already mentioned. Really looks like this disturbance is generating feeder bands, low level center or not.

[boca]

Looks like the center is 75 miles east of Vero Bch moving North.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

If you look north of Melbourne eveything is moving east to west very rapidly and down in Palm Bch County movement south to north. Here in Boca Raton we no longer have a gusty easterly wind which is very interesting.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the center is 75 miles east of Vero Bch moving North.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

If you look north of Melbourne eveything is moving east to west very rapidly and down in Palm Bch County movement south to north. Here in Boca Raton we no longer have a gusty easterly wind which is very interesting.

The center looks like it's actually moving NW to me and is trying to get better organized. If it keeps going in that direction thought it would make landfall later today before any signifciant development occurs.

[boca]

Thunder44 I actually meant to write NW.

[TampaFl]

Low center showing up just southeast of MLB. Shows up nice on NWS MLB radar
Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

[Thunder44]

Thunder44 I actually meant to write NW.

okies

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 0.RAW.html


There is now a closed low, and this will soon be initiated as either a TD or TS.

[recmod]

Here's the 5:30 am TWO:

Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate this system later today.

Now...will this be a TD...or, with the winds having already been reported with the system, will they just upgrade to Tammy?????

--Lou

[jlauderdal]

Here's the 5:30 am TWO:

Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate this system later today.

Now...will this be a TD...or, with the winds having already been reported with the system, will they just upgrade to Tammy?????

--Lou

looks to be just NE of Palm Bay, doubt its a TS though