Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina holded together good. I wonder if because this has came out of the Atlatnic. Will the Eastern Pacific support a Monster like Katrina or Rita?

[Derek Ortt]

one question I have is if this does retain its circulation in the epac and becomes a major, is this an Atlantic major hurricane since it remains an Atlantic cyclone

[Buck]

I guess we might find out soon enough!

[Brent]

one question I have is if this does retain its circulation in the epac and becomes a major, is this an Atlantic major hurricane since it remains an Atlantic cyclone

Good question.

[krysof]

one question I have is if this does retain its circulation in the epac and becomes a major, is this an Atlantic major hurricane since it remains an Atlantic cyclone

Good question.

I think so, I mean since it could still be Stan why wouldn't it be part of the atlantic if it becomes a major hurricane.

[Scorpion]

Stan is NOT going into the EPAC.

[caneflyer]

It would make no sense to consider a tropical cyclone that became a major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific an "Atlantic" major hurricane, just because the cyclone originated in the Atlantic basin. The fact that it would retain its name upon crossing with continuous advisories is merely an operational convenience, established to avoid changing the name of a storm from one advisory to the next.

I believe if you go back and look at some of the recent east Pacific Monthly Weather Review articles, you will see that for storms that cross into the Central Pacific, distinction is made between maximum intensity reached east of 140W and west of 140W. In this case the data table carries the overall max intensity with a footnote if it occurred in the Central Pacific. I believe that Atlantic-Pacific crossings would be handled differently, and only the Atlantic part of the track would be included in the Atlantic statistics. Why? Because the dividing line between the EPAC and CPAC is entirely arbitrary. What is magic about dividing the ocean at 140W? Nothing, and cyclones cross this boundary all the time. It happened twice this year, in fact. In the case of the Atlantic/Pacific though, there is a land mass in between that forms a natural boundary, and it is very rare for storms to cross. In my view, this would cause NHC to treat the two parts of the track as separate in the final record.

[AZRainman]

Stan still holding circulation, looks like an EPAC emergence coming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is firing ahead of it. The center should be off by early morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big blow up of convection is forming right now ahead of the LLC. It should be off with in 6 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxmann_91]

Something is interesting here...the old LLC is dying and a new one seems to be forming in that huge blob of the Pacific coast of Mexico. Meanwhile, another huge blob over the Yucatan is also developing. The whole entire system seems to be splitting over the old LLC.

A very interesting and complex setup seems to be in order, one that somehow the globals have foreseen. The Yucatan blob could develop into the storm Florida will have to contend with (see many other threads on this guy), and the Pacific blob could develop into something as well.

Comments? Pro mets, what do you think?

[fasterdisaster]

If the blob over the Yucatan splits, goes into GOM, and becomes TS, what would it be named? Stan or Tammy?(Assuming nothing else develops)

[Brent]

If the blob over the Yucatan splits, goes into GOM, and becomes TS, what would it be named? Stan or Tammy?(Assuming nothing else develops)

Tammy most likely.

The original Stan is approaching the EPAC coast.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, Dr. Masters's thoughts:

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[superfly]

Something is interesting here...the old LLC is dying and a new one seems to be forming in that huge blob of the Pacific coast of Mexico. Meanwhile, another huge blob over the Yucatan is also developing. The whole entire system seems to be splitting over the old LLC.

A very interesting and complex setup seems to be in order, one that somehow the globals have foreseen. The Yucatan blob could develop into the storm Florida will have to contend with (see many other threads on this guy), and the Pacific blob could develop into something as well.

Comments? Pro mets, what do you think?

Yeah, several models projected this a few days ago. Really odd.