92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[arkess7]

so does that mean the there is a split going on, one low heads west, and the other up the coast?

I think there will be a split. "THE" low heads west and a piece of energy heads up the coast. Whether or not that piece of energy (mid levels) will work it'sway down to the sfc is just a guess right now.

maybe..........i just hope this cold front coming down does 'something to it' ....its already been a heavy rain and wind factor here.......and im really done with it.........a nice size branch out of the 2 huge trees i have in my front acre .....have come down.........i think (my trees are weak) from last year....dont want anymore......SORRY TO CHANGE THE TOPIC

[CHRISTY]

i think this thing is stalled!

[chrisnnavarre]

Let me translate...Great, Tropical Depression in the Eastern Gulf, coming from the same direction as Kartrina and Rita....just all we need to finish off the year...



Well lets look at the bright side maybe it will blow the Red Tide out of the Panhandle so we can have decent fall fishing season....IF FALL EVER GETS HERE!

[jrod]

To me the most likely spot to watch for a center to develop is where the heavy thunderstorm activity is, about 26N 77W. Of course that area is closer to me so we know why I am looking there.

The other spot is consistant with where Quikscar showed a surface low on an earlier run, while there maybe a circulation there, there is little in the way of convection and like disorganized tropical systems often do the LLC may relocate to the above spot. Only time will tell and regardless where/if a true center develops we have gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and 10ft+ seas.

[Air Force Met]

Let me translate...Great, Tropical Depression in the Eastern Gulf, coming from the same direction as Kartrina and Rita....just all we need to finish off the year...



Well lets look at the bright side maybe it will blow the Red Tide out of the Panhandle so we can have decent fall fishing season....IF FALL EVER GETS HERE!

This thing should not even be mentioned in the same sentence as K&R...it's not even gonna be close to that...not even remotely similiar.

[Rainband]

Let me translate...Great, Tropical Depression in the Eastern Gulf, coming from the same direction as Kartrina and Rita....just all we need to finish off the year...



Well lets look at the bright side maybe it will blow the Red Tide out of the Panhandle so we can have decent fall fishing season....IF FALL EVER GETS HERE!

If you look at the new model runs. They continue to shift east. Then look at the GFS and the convection currently over the yucatan. I think the panhandle will be spared this time.

[Rainband]

Let me translate...Great, Tropical Depression in the Eastern Gulf, coming from the same direction as Kartrina and Rita....just all we need to finish off the year...



Well lets look at the bright side maybe it will blow the Red Tide out of the Panhandle so we can have decent fall fishing season....IF FALL EVER GETS HERE!

This thing should not even be mentioned in the same sentence as K&R...it's not even gonna be close to that...not even remotely similiar.

agreed

[jlauderdal]

i think this thing is stalled!

The convection certainly isnt stalled per radar presentations so if you are talking about a center stall please let us know the lat and lon of the center that is stalled,
thanks.

[skysummit]

The strongest winds I can find so far are just south of Titusville, Fl. Station ID W4MFJ is reporting sustained winds at 33mph gusting to 45mph.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 050115
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.UPDATE...TODAY WAS AN ACTIVE DAY FOR GUSTY SHOWERS...WITH MANY
REPORTS OF 40 TO NEARLY 50 MPH WINDS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE RAIN SHOWERS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP 60 POPS IN THE INTERIOR AND 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE. I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE AT
ANY GIVEN TIME...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF ANY ONE PLACE GETTING
MORE THAN A TRACE OF RAIN TONIGHT IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REALLY HINGES ON THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN HERE AND THE
BAHAMAS. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE`VE SEEN THE LOWEST PRESSURES DOWN
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE THE CUMULUS LINES HAD VERY LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST AND MOST
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO BE IN THE BAHAMAS WELL EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. IF NOTHING ELSE...THIS STATE OF DISORGANIZATION
WILL DELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BRING ABOVE NORMAL RAINS TO OUR
AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

WILL BE TWEAKING ZONES SOON...BUT NOT MUCH ACTUAL CHANGE FROM
CURRENT PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS WERE QUITE GUSTY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE AVERAGE
WIND SPEEDS HAD REMAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR SHORE. THE FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN MANY PLACES...WHICH WERE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO LESS THAN IDEAL BOATING
CONDITIONS TO SAY THE LEAST. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS SET TO
EXPIRE SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD OVERNIGHT...BUT IF WINDS DON`T DIMINISH
SOON...WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT 1030 PM...BUT AT THE VERY BEST...EXPECT WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS THERE WITH CONTINUED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

[jrod]

The area that gets my attention is closer to 24N 75W.

This is still a ragged looking system, I dont know about this thing being stalled, the bulk of the blob still looks like it is moving east and there may be little low level swirls popping up and dissapearing which may be a sign that a true LLC is going to develop soon(6 hours or so).

Just my opinion

[skysummit]

Now the strongest I see is 29mph gusting to 33mph.

http://img308.imageshack.us/my.php?image=add9uk.png

[Rainband]

The area that gets my attention is closer to 24N 75W.

This is still a ragged looking system, I dont know about this thing being stalled, the bulk of the blob still looks like it is moving east and there may be little low level swirls popping up and dissapearing which may be a sign that a true LLC is going to develop soon(6 hours or so).

Just my opinion

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

[jrod]

The strongest winds I can find so far are just south of Titusville, Fl. Station ID W4MFJ is reporting sustained winds at 33mph gusting to 45mph.

I am about 5miles south of that. At least there is some data to back up my claims of gusty winds and possible hazardous travel over the bridges.

[skysummit]

There is a buoy about 120nm east of the Florida coast reporting sustained winds at 31knots.

http://img160.imageshack.us/img160/1835/12344ch.png

[jrod]

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

The yucatan area that the GFS is picking up is energy left over from Stan and the soon to arrive energy from this wave in my interpretation of it.

Interesting indeed.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

The yucatan area that the GFS is picking up is energy left over from Stan and the soon to arrive energy from this wave in my interpretation of it.

Interesting indeed.

VERRRY interesting....now excuse me while I scold myself
for letting my -removed- excite me...LOL I love rain too much...

[wzrgirl1]

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

The yucatan area that the GFS is picking up is energy left over from Stan and the soon to arrive energy from this wave in my interpretation of it.

Interesting indeed.

VERRRY interesting....now excuse me while I scold myself
for letting my -removed- excite me...LOL I love rain too much...

I can relate....I love it too.......it's a rush

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

The yucatan area that the GFS is picking up is energy left over from Stan and the soon to arrive energy from this wave in my interpretation of it.

Interesting indeed.

VERRRY interesting....now excuse me while I scold myself
for letting my -removed- excite me...LOL I love rain too much...

I can relate....I love it too.......it's a rush

To be honest I don't really get a rush unless its rain and nothing
more

The reason I wishcasted this was because it looks like just rain and not
anything bad---and I need the rain...I don't think conditions favor a
developing system with regards to high winds...but I'll take the rain
from it


Now the night before Charley was a different story for me...
I was in constant fear of seeing my home destroyed until
Charley veered right and hit near Punta Gorda. I dodged that
bullet but unfortunately Punta Gorda was really hammered.


I hope and pray that I never see a major storm.
I can handle the rain, but winds and surge become really
dangerous for my location close to the Bay.


As I have learned today, all it takes is a pressure gradient
between a ridge and something as minor as a strong
tropical wave to cause damage...yup those gusts to 50 did
minor screen damage

Anyway...most the rain missed me--- I got just 0.03 inches

[caneman]

The area that gets my attention is closer to 24N 75W.

This is still a ragged looking system, I dont know about this thing being stalled, the bulk of the blob still looks like it is moving east and there may be little low level swirls popping up and dissapearing which may be a sign that a true LLC is going to develop soon(6 hours or so).

Just my opinion

I am more intersted in the yucatan and the gfs run. If that pans out it will be very interesting to the say the least over the weekend.

Rainband, I didn't see the GFS run. What is it hinting at?