92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

Looks like the GFS is the model to follow.

[HURAKAN]

Why is the 8 PM TWD so late? Anyone knows?

[Brent]

This seems now to be much to do about NOTHING

Yes...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I want to give my compliments to AFM I think he is onto something with
the splitting low thing...

Good job and good analysis!

[cycloneye]

WTNT 01 KNGU 050001
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N 80.5W TO 23.8N 83.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 30N 79W EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 24.0N 78.0W AS
INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY WINDS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED
FOR 12 HOURS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ARE
APPROXIMATELY 20 KTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006MB
BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200MB MOVING WESTWARD, A
DECREASING WIND SHEAR TENDENCY, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 070000Z.//



Wow almost always when they issue these they are the prior step before upgrading to a TD.

Just in case this was missed at other page I repost this important information.

[jrod]

I would not say its very doubful, maybe slightly doubful if not a 50/50.


Also the wind here is quite gusty, any more and we may need a wind advisory/gale warning or something. I was getting blown around on the road today and a little more wind and the bridges will be not be safe for light cars

I apologize

No offensive taken here.

Im not worried about it, the biggest problem will be at work tommorow when I'll have to secure a marina in the sour weather. Not a fun task.

[Air Force Met]

the pressure posted in the title of the thread - along with the coordinates - can you tell me where those came from? Air Force Met - I don't think they are referring to the pressures I posted.

That is their guess...and is my guess as well. If you look at the LLC...it is near Andros...and the buoy data shows that it is probably 1006 down close to the center. Some of the buoys are 1006.4 mb or so a little to the NW of there...so it probably is close to 1006 near 25n. This is another reason I had problems believing 1002-1005 mb further north. The lower pressure is clearly b/w 24N and 25N. The position they are showing for cyclone formation has a valid time (VT:) of 18z tomorrow...it's not current and that's not where they think it is now...but where it will be at 05/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

AFM what is your take about the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 92L?

[artist]

thanks AFM - sotheir thinking is it will now head sw rather than nw as the models runs show, correct?

[Rainband]

apparently they are concerned. Luis posted an advisory on their concerns.

[Rainband]

AFM what is your take about the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 92L?

[Air Force Met]

thanks AFM - sotheir thinking is it will now head sw rather than nw as the models runs show, correct?

As I said...I think the models are having a hard time resolving which low to follow.

[krysof]

so does that mean the there is a split going on, one low heads west, and the other up the coast?

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2005100506, , BEST, 0, 240N, 805W, 20, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2005100512, , BEST, 0, 240N, 805W, 20, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2005100518, , BEST, 0, 240N, 805W, 20, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Above is a track file from the tropical cyclone formation alert.

[Air Force Met]

AFM what is your take about the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for 92L?

If you are going to issue an alert...you have to issue it on the existing low pressure area...rather than one that *might* form further NW in a couple of days.

If the shear wasn't the way it is...then 1006mb low would normally be closed off and classified as a TD. I think it's the safe bet. There is a small window there...but any GoM system will have that window slammed tightly in a couple of days by shear and dry air. But...as I stated before...I do think we will see Tammy out of this somewhere...but she won't be much different than 92L is now...just a little more organized at the lower levels. The same amount of rain and wind will still be present...the only diff will be it will have a name.

[skysummit]

Geez...I left for a few hours now I'm more confused than ever....talking about 2 lows now? What other tricks are in the bag for us this season?

[Air Force Met]

so does that mean the there is a split going on, one low heads west, and the other up the coast?

I think there will be a split. "THE" low heads west and a piece of energy heads up the coast. Whether or not that piece of energy (mid levels) will work it'sway down to the sfc is just a guess right now.

[Air Force Met]

Geez...I left for a few hours now I'm more confused than ever....talking about 2 lows now? What other tricks are in the bag for us this season?

I've been talking about that all day...but it's not two lows yet...just one low (westward) and a piece of energy that could deepen into another low (up the coast).

Fun...isn't it?

[krysof]

at least we have something to talk about, I mean the season is starting to end fast, and the thread will start to quiet down most likely by late October or early November unless there is a hurricane somewhere

[ronjon]

Looking over the situation, I frankly don't see anything of tropical origin developing at least over the short term (1-2 days). There is an ULL over the NE GOM that is drifting west. There is SW shear from this ULL over south FL and there also appears to be a Mid-Level vortex over the Northern Bahamas. The lowest surface pressures I can find are near Key Largo/Marathon and this area is completely devoid of convection. The MLC over the northern Bahamas appears to be drifting W-NW looking at Miami Radar. With the strong High still north of all this mess and the ULL in the NE Gulf drifting west - this disturbed area still looks to trudge across the state at least over the next 48 hours - this, along with trough/Low Pressure eventually developing in the Gulf west of the state, will channel deep mositure from the tropics northward. All in all, while no organized tropical system - translation - lots of rain.