Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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ALhurricane
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#261 Postby ALhurricane » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:49 pm

One thing that was amazing to me was the degree of deep convection that Stan had overnight, before making landfall. While I was at work today, I went back and took a look at how cold the cloud tops got overnight. I actually found a couple of pixels of -92C with a large area of -85C to -89C. Those are extremely cold cloud tops and are very rarely seen.

Just thought I would highlight that. :D
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#262 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:02 pm

Just out of curiosity, have any other hurricanes made landfall in the area Stan did? I can't think of any.
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Coredesat

#263 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:16 pm

Stan sure is fighting.

Image

Image

The convection is starting to break up some, but it still looks quite impressive. Stan could very well make it.
Last edited by Coredesat on Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#264 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:17 pm

ts larry 2 years ago
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Scorpion

#265 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:33 pm

Looks like it could be a big EPAC hurricane if it emerges intact.
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Buck
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#266 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:34 pm

a la Cesar-Douglas, but Stan-Stan.
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Buck
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#267 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:10 pm

Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops!

Image

This thing is not done yet. A monster.
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krysof

#268 Postby krysof » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:12 pm

isn't the center still over land though
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#269 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:13 pm

Buck wrote:Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops!

Image

This thing is not done yet. A monster.


Notice the massive storms persisting over Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.
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#270 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:14 pm

Could this be a first since the name change? Could the EPAC get TS Stan? Interesting times ahead!
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Derek Ortt

#271 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:15 pm

right now, the guidance is utterly useless. The center is very close to the Pacific Coast now, and has accelerated, now moving at 11KT, while the guidance wants to move it NE

Right now, the normally worthless model, the A98E is the only one that is even providing reasonable guidance
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#272 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:21 pm

When will it move off the coast Derek. In A98E is showing its self to be a good model with this system.
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superfly

#273 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:27 pm

It is over the highest peaks now.
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Coredesat

#274 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:30 pm

Now, I'm not a professional, and I know that IR is not the best way to locate a center, but I think Stan's LLC may be dissipating:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a lot less organized in the last two or so frames.
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#275 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:39 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Now, I'm not a professional, and I know that IR is not the best way to locate a center, but I think Stan's LLC may be dissipating:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a lot less organized in the last two or so frames.


No, not IMO. I can still easily spot the center. I think Stan may be able to survive into the Pacific.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#276 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:46 pm

If it survives this is something big...Because I think all the other storms to cross over was from central America. In not this area. So another record is possible.
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Derek Ortt

#277 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:54 pm

the LLC remains in tact based upon the latest surface obs and it may very well survive due to the surface inflow coming right off of the EPAC

Its also just a few hours from entering the Pacific
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#278 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:58 pm

Buck wrote:Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops! This thing is not done yet. A monster.


:eek:

That's some severe rain.
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#279 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:03 pm

I am utterly amazed of how long he's holding on.
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bombarderoazul
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#280 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:05 pm

No doubt he is Stan, the man!! 8-)
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