92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #621 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:50 pm

Rainband wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Grrr...if this shift means the rain will miss me in drought Tampa
Bay...
Yep

Some -removed-....haha

A super mysterious ridge builds in and pushes the big mess across
the FL Peninsula and then the front brings it right back at us
as a wild hybrid with crazy rains all over the place...NOT..

______________________________________
ANyway

Oh well...maybe there's hope for rain:

Some of the models show something developing in the SE GOM

Is this part of 92L?
Is 92L splitting and putting a Low in the SE GOM that could
go hybrid?

fasterdisaster · #622 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:53 pm

1005 Millibars?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Wow, that supports a minimal tropical storm! I feel a bit more confident that this will be Tammy.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #623 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:54 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:1005 Millibars?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Wow, that supports a minimal tropical storm! I feel a bit more confident that this will be Tammy.

And if it doesn't give me some good rain...then I'll use
my hurricane voodoo...beware all!!!!

#624 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:54 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:1005 Millibars?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Wow, that supports a minimal tropical storm! I feel a bit more confident that this will be Tammy.

Please read my posts about those pressures.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #625 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:55 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:1005 Millibars?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Wow, that supports a minimal tropical storm! I feel a bit more confident that this will be Tammy.

Please read my posts about those pressures.

AFM What are your thoughts on gulf hybrid and center split
given 00z models? Right now I am very confused by these models

Rainband · #626 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:56 pm

This seems now to be much to do about NOTHING :roll:

jrod · #627 Postby **jrod** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:56 pm

I am going to wake up tommorow and there will be a depression or possibly Tammy off the coast and we will be under a storm warning, you can quote me me on that.

It does look like there is some organization and it is close to being a deprssion now IMO, and the wind speeds are definatly at least depression strength. There may be a center trying to form over the north part of Abaco, Bahamas right now.

***im not a professional meteorlogist and my opinion should not be looked as and expert opinion, in other words listen to the NHC and NWS for accurate up to date weather info***

Rainband · #628 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:57 pm

jrod wrote:I am going to wake up tommorow and there will be a deprssion or possibly Tammy off the coast and we will be under a storm warning, you can quote me me on that.

It does look like there is some organization and it is close to being a deprssion now IMO, and the wind speeds are definatly at least depression strength. There may be a center trying to form over the north part of Abaco, Bahamas right now.

***im not a professional meteorlogist and my opinion should not be looked as and expert opinion, in other words listen to the NHC and NWS for accurate up to date weather info***

sorry but thats very doubtful.

#629 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:59 pm

jrod wrote:I am going to wake up tommorow and there will be a deprssion or possibly Tammy off the coast and we will be under a storm warning, you can quote me me on that.

It does look like there is some organization and it is close to being a deprssion now IMO, and the wind speeds are definatly at least depression strength. There may be a center trying to form over the north part of Abaco, Bahamas right now.

***im not a professional meteorlogist and my opinion should not be looked as and expert opinion, in other words listen to the NHC and NWS for accurate up to date weather info***

Don't worry...I will. That won't happen unless you sleep past noon...and maybe not then.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #630 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:59 pm

Message to 92L: I hope you die a horrible death 92L

You mean system--you had my hopes up for days for some
rain- and now you turn and go up the east coast and stay away
Bye forever 92L....I want to never see you again

Die and be sheared forever.... :grr:

#631 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:01 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:1005 Millibars?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Wow, that supports a minimal tropical storm! I feel a bit more confident that this will be Tammy.

Please read my posts about those pressures.

AFM What are your thoughts on gulf hybrid and center split
given 00z models? Right now I am very confused by these models

I think the 00z models (those models at least) aren't designed to pick up a split (read my previous posts on this) and are probably splitting the difference b/w the two. IN other words...those models seem to be averaging the two lows into one track.

#632 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:02 pm

WTNT 01 KNGU 050001
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N 80.5W TO 23.8N 83.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 30N 79W EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 24.0N 78.0W AS
INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY WINDS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED
FOR 12 HOURS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ARE
APPROXIMATELY 20 KTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006MB
BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200MB MOVING WESTWARD, A
DECREASING WIND SHEAR TENDENCY, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 070000Z.//

Wow almost always when they issue these they are the prior step before upgrading to a TD.

jrod · #633 Postby **jrod** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:02 pm

I would not say its very doubful, maybe slightly doubful if not a 50/50.

Also the wind here is quite gusty, any more and we may need a wind advisory/gale warning or something. I was getting blown around on the road today and a little more wind and the bridges will be not be safe for light cars

Rainband · #634 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:03 pm

artist · #635 Postby **artist** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:04 pm

the pressure posted in the title of the thread - along with the coordinates - can you tell me where those came from? Air Force Met - I don't think they are referring to the pressures I posted.

#636 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:04 pm

jrod wrote:I would not say its very doubful, maybe slightly doubful if not a 50/50.

You are saying like "ok, this is getting a little bit more serious."

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #637 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:04 pm

Looks interesting....

#638 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:06 pm

Dear Sweet Ex-Rainmaker 92L,

You insult my soul with profound and vituperating
poetic ambiguity
Indescribable in magnitude except my a monstrousity of
grimness
92L is forever washed to the smell of good food gone rotten
As the excellent cuisine of my cooking room decays in
spontaneous rapidity....my soul sits entrenched by storm2k
and the analysis provided by it.

The unsettled poetic ambigiuty of your metaphoric allegory
is too severe to take lightly,
gravitas and a firm soul needed to counter the teases and jabs
of a menace gone wild...

Love,
Tampa Bay Hurricane

That would have been better for Ophelia. lol,

Rainband · #639 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:06 pm

jrod wrote:I would not say its very doubful, maybe slightly doubful if not a 50/50.

Also the wind here is quite gusty, any more and we may need a wind advisory/gale warning or something. I was getting blown around on the road today and a little more wind and the bridges will be not be safe for light cars

I apologize

Stratosphere747 · #640 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:WTNT 01 KNGU 050001
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.0N 80.5W TO 23.8N 83.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 30N 79W EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 24.0N 78.0W AS
INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETRY WINDS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED
FOR 12 HOURS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ARE
APPROXIMATELY 20 KTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006MB
BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200MB MOVING WESTWARD, A
DECREASING WIND SHEAR TENDENCY, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 070000Z.//

Wow almost always when they issue these they are the prior step before upgrading to a TD.

Again....

Look at the earlier post that AFM made about would could be possibly be happening...

I'd repost it with his blessing...

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