Florida flooding potential from 92L

[jpigott]

not sure if this belongs in the 92 thread or not, mods feel free to move/lock if necessary. Anyone in South Florida remember the October flooding event in either 94' or 95' (i forget exactly which year it was). Many homes in our neighbor hood had standing water inside. What i'm seeing with 92L is a prolonged rain event (many models bring 92L thru SFL and reversing course and coming back thru the peninsula) over an area that is already saturated with above average rainfall for the year. Could we see another October flood event here in SFL??

[artist]

what area do you live in jpigott?

[jpigott]

palm beach gardens, FL which is approx. 5-8 miles north of West Palm Beach

[artist]

I live just north of WPB too - wasn't here in the 90's - should get interesting this week for sure!

[gatorcane]

I'm in Boca Raton....it's already raining and it's still hundreds of miles E of here.

[NastyCat4]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Got news for ya--it is already here. Don't wait too long for it to develop, as it already has ventured into Florida, and will be here for a few days.

[SLSharp]

How will this system effect Orlando area as of Sat.?? We are on vacation there Oct.8--Oct. 15....wondering if I should pack rain gear for everyone.. .can't change plans.. ....they are set in stone...so would like heads up on what our weather is going to be like while we are there....hope you can help ...thanks in advance...

[NastyCat4]

Lots of rain and 25 MPH winds, with gusts to 40 along the coast.

[jlauderdal]

How will this system effect Orlando area as of Sat.?? We are on vacation there Oct.8--Oct. 15....wondering if I should pack rain gear for everyone.. .can't change plans.. ....they are set in stone...so would like heads up on what our weather is going to be like while we are there....hope you can help ...thanks in advance...

Florida in october, bring the rain gear.

[cinlfla]

Lots of rain and 25 MPH winds, with gusts to 40 along the coast

Yes I agree lots of rain, maybe a little wind.

[Frank2]

I posted the below on the 92L invest thread, but, thought it was also worth mentioning here:

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but, the latest Miami WSFO discussion now has begun to downplay the entire tropical wave/tropical cyclone/flood event scenario of the past couple of days, and although they still think there might be a period of heavy rain, today's wording is much more conservative than previous discussions:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

Frank

[feederband]

I think a flooding event in Florida is unavoidable at this point..

[Rainband]

I think a flooding event in Florida is unavoidable at this point..

The new models continue to shift east. Most of the convection is to the east of the "center" Looks like the rain will be too.

[gpickett00]

i cant believe people havent already evacuated

[Rainband]

i cant believe people havent already evacuated

ha










ha

[gatorcane]

If this invest indeed stays E of FL then FL will be on the dry side and won't get much rain at all.

[ronjon]

I think a flooding event in Florida is unavoidable at this point..

The new models continue to shift east. Most of the convection is to the east of the "center" Looks like the rain will be too.

I wouldn't put any stock in the "new" models regarding rain prospects. There will still be plenty of rain over the next 3-5 days over the peninsula as there are synoptic forces in play with plenty of tropical moisture. Looking over the situation, I frankly don't see anything of tropical origin developing at least over the short term (1-2 days). There is an ULL over the NE GOM that is drifting west. There is SW shear from this ULL over south FL and there also appears to be a Mid-Level vortex over the Northern Bahamas. The lowest surface pressures I can find are near Key Largo/Marathon and this area is completely devoid of convection. The MLC over the northern Bahamas appears to be drifting W-NW looking at Miami Radar. With the strong High still north of all this mess and the ULL in the NE Gulf drifting west - this disturbed area still looks to trudge across the state at least over the next 48 hours - this, along with trough/Low Pressure eventually developing in the Gulf west of the state, will channel deep mositure from the tropics northward. All in all, while no organized tropical system - translation - lots of rain.

[arkess7]

OH I THINK ITS A HUGE TOPIC.........UP HERE I HAVE HAD WATER STANDING IN MY DRIVEWAY FOR A FEW DAYS.....FLOODING IS A PROBLEM//////// EVEN UP HERE......AND IM UP...PRETTY GOOD....BUT WE ARE SO CLOSE TO THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST THAT IT BECOMES LOW LANDS IN PARTS................IT LOOKS LIKE THE EVERGLADES..

[HurricaneGirl]

My friend Andrew said he had 2 inches of water all around his house when he got home last night. Our forecast says possibly 1" today and up to 2" tonight.

[O Town]

Well It has been raining here since Sunday off and on which = saturated ground already. Now I wake up this morning and its been non-stop raining. Who knows how long it was raining before I woke up. My backyard is already turning into the pond. Oh well, I doubt it will come up to the back door like with Frances, I hope. But flooding could be a bigger issue for folks west of here in Deltona. That place has a huge problem with flooding.