Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ALhurricane
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Daphne, AL

#261 Postby ALhurricane » Tue Oct 04, 2005 4:49 pm

One thing that was amazing to me was the degree of deep convection that Stan had overnight, before making landfall. While I was at work today, I went back and took a look at how cold the cloud tops got overnight. I actually found a couple of pixels of -92C with a large area of -85C to -89C. Those are extremely cold cloud tops and are very rarely seen.

Just thought I would highlight that. :D
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#262 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:02 pm

Just out of curiosity, have any other hurricanes made landfall in the area Stan did? I can't think of any.
0 likes   
Top
Coredesat

#263 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:16 pm

Stan sure is fighting.

Image

Image

The convection is starting to break up some, but it still looks quite impressive. Stan could very well make it.
Last edited by Coredesat on Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#264 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:17 pm

ts larry 2 years ago
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#265 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:33 pm

Looks like it could be a big EPAC hurricane if it emerges intact.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

#266 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 04, 2005 6:34 pm

a la Cesar-Douglas, but Stan-Stan.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1199
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

#267 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:10 pm

Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops!

Image

This thing is not done yet. A monster.
0 likes   
Top
krysof

#268 Postby krysof » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:12 pm

isn't the center still over land though
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#269 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:13 pm

Buck wrote:Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops!

Image

This thing is not done yet. A monster.


Notice the massive storms persisting over Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2044
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

#270 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:14 pm

Could this be a first since the name change? Could the EPAC get TS Stan? Interesting times ahead!
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#271 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:15 pm

right now, the guidance is utterly useless. The center is very close to the Pacific Coast now, and has accelerated, now moving at 11KT, while the guidance wants to move it NE

Right now, the normally worthless model, the A98E is the only one that is even providing reasonable guidance
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#272 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:21 pm

When will it move off the coast Derek. In A98E is showing its self to be a good model with this system.
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#273 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:27 pm

It is over the highest peaks now.
0 likes   
Top
Coredesat

#274 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:30 pm

Now, I'm not a professional, and I know that IR is not the best way to locate a center, but I think Stan's LLC may be dissipating:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a lot less organized in the last two or so frames.
0 likes   
Top
fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#275 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:39 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Now, I'm not a professional, and I know that IR is not the best way to locate a center, but I think Stan's LLC may be dissipating:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's a lot less organized in the last two or so frames.


No, not IMO. I can still easily spot the center. I think Stan may be able to survive into the Pacific.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#276 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:46 pm

If it survives this is something big...Because I think all the other storms to cross over was from central America. In not this area. So another record is possible.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#277 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:54 pm

the LLC remains in tact based upon the latest surface obs and it may very well survive due to the surface inflow coming right off of the EPAC

Its also just a few hours from entering the Pacific
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#278 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:58 pm

Buck wrote:Look at those unwavering cold cloud tops! This thing is not done yet. A monster.


:eek:

That's some severe rain.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#279 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:03 pm

I am utterly amazed of how long he's holding on.
0 likes   
Top
bombarderoazul
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

#280 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Oct 04, 2005 9:05 pm

No doubt he is Stan, the man!! 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, ElectricStorm, Europa non è lontana, StormWeather and 92 guests