92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jlauderdal]

looks like the system is finally starting to throw some decent precip our way but tommorrow afternoon and beyond is the real action

[Air Force Met]

I think the low level trof is starting to split. Take a look at the GHCC loop and you can see some slight low level vorticity over the Keys...with some more east of So. Fl. But...with most of the convection lines up east of Florida...that is where the real convergence lies. The GFS solution is looking better, given the 24 hour forecast was pretty close (from yesterday's 18z run). A big piece of the energy splits off to the NW towards GA/SC/NC and that may or may not develop...then the other piece heads west into the GoM where the turning is right now...and some hybrid development gets going with the upepr low and frontal interaction.

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature. Just my guess right now at how the models are handling this with the current setup.

[CHRISTY]

none of the precip is reaching the ground.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think the low level trof is starting to split. Take a look at the GHCC loop and you can see some slight low level vorticity over the Keys...with some more east of So. Fl. But...with most of the convection lines up east of Florida...that is where the real convergence lies. The GFS solution is looking better, given the 24 hour forecast was pretty close (from yesterday's 18z run). A big piece of the energy splits off to the NW towards GA/SC/NC and that may or may not develop...then the other piece heads west into the GoM where the turning is right now...and some hybrid development gets going with the upepr low and frontal interaction.

To me...right now...it's looking more like we will have two weaker systems, rather than one consolidated one that can get stronger. One will be hybrid-like and the other will be more tropical in nature. Just my guess right now at how the models are handling this with the current setup.

So that vortex near the Keys heads into the GOM and might go hybrid-
Air Force Met what conditions would the FL West Coast get if
a decent hybrid forms in the SE GOM?

[Air Force Met]

Those intensity forecasts are way too high...especially if they are calling for GoM development. There is no way we will get a 70 knot hurricane in the eastern GoM in 84 hours. That is not happening. The Dship is much more likely than the ships.

[Air Force Met]

So that vortex near the Keys heads into the GOM and might go hybrid-
Air Force Met what conditions would the FL West Coast get if
a decent hybrid forms in the SE GOM?

Same as you would get if it turned into a regular tropical storm...lots of rain and some wind...gusts over TS force (which is already occuring in spots of e. Florida). NO threat other than possible flooding due to rainfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Whats the chances this can become a weak tropical storm?

[jasons2k]

De-ship!! De-ship!!

[Air Force Met]

Whats the chances this can become a weak tropical storm?

I think the chances are good for either piece...the NW moving one or the GoM one. The GoM area will have some baroclinic help...so it shouldn't be too difficult.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So that vortex near the Keys heads into the GOM and might go hybrid-
Air Force Met what conditions would the FL West Coast get if
a decent hybrid forms in the SE GOM?

Same as you would get if it turned into a regular tropical storm...lots of rain and some wind...gusts over TS force (which is already occuring in spots of e. Florida). NO threat other than possible flooding due to rainfall.

Bring on the rain baby!!!! I've gotten almost no rain here since August --with the exception of some today

[Brent]

none of the precip is reaching the ground.

Oh it is... just not in your yard.

[CHRISTY]

big blow up of convection near what appears to me to be a low level center forming!

[Air Force Met]

none of the precip is reaching the ground.

Not sure what you are talking about...please clarify...

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH LGT RAIN 79 75 88 E14 29.77F
FT LAUDER-EXEC RAIN 79 75 89 E22G28 29.74F FOG
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 82 75 79 E12 29.73S
POMPANO BEACH HVY RAIN 77 75 94 E15G26 29.75S VSB 3/4
PEMBROKE PINES PTSUNNY 82 75 79 E17 29.75S
OPA LOCKA MOSUNNY 84 75 74 E12 29.73F
MIAMI LGT RAIN 79 79 100 SE8 29.74S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 78 75 91 NE14 29.73R
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 81 73 78 NE10 29.73F
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 82 77 83 E8 29.74R

[Cookiely]

WHAT IS WSETA???????????
000
FXUS62 KTBW 041754
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING THRU THE BAHAMAS ATTM. EACH MODEL
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN. TROPICAL WSETA STILL WANTS TO
DEVELOP THE WAVE INTO A TROPICAL LOW AND KEEP IT ALONG THE E COAST
BEFORE KICKING IT OUT IN THE LONG TERM. GFS STILL HAS AN OPEN WAVE
UNTIL IT GETS INTO THE GULF...AT WHICH TIME THE MODEL`S UPPER
DYNAMICS ALLOW A LOW TO DEVELOP OVER CUBA AND THEN PUSH NORTH
NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE BAY AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NAM
CONTINUES ITS THINKING OF A WEAK LOW MOVING THRU THE STRAITS AND
THEN...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BECOMING STRONGER AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
TAKE HOLD.

GIVEN HOW WELL THE TROPICAL WSETA DID WITH THE LAST FEW STORMS IN
THIS GENESIS AREA...STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. SHUD THE LOW STAY OVER ON THE EAST
COAST...RAIN BANDS WILL DRY OUT AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND
ALL WE WILL GET IS SOME GUSTY SHOWERS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE GFS AND NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE WILL BE IN
FOR A RAINY REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE DEALING WITH A POTENTIAL
HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
GENERAL CONCENSUS IS FOR THE WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT WEST
OVER THE GULF AND A BROAD LOW DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
FRIDAY. THIS LOW ELONGATES AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A
MID LATITUDE TROUGH SATURDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A COOL FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND PASSING SHOWERS WITH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE COOL FRONT
PASSES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS PICKED UP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WITH THE LINE OF
GUSTY SHOWERS THAT MOVED THRU IN THE LAST HOUR. HAVE SINCE COME DOWN
TO SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH COASTAL FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUING TO LOOK
ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FOR DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS DYING DOWN SOMEWHAT AS THE
WAVE AXIS SHIFTS JUST WEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SHUD THE SYSTEM
DEVELOP INTO A LOW...CURRENT WIND FORECAST WILL BE UNDERDONE. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

[Brent]

A form of the ETA model??? Not sure...

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
... A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...
INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

[vacanechaser]

Nice discussion AFM.. Looking at the water vapor image of the Atlantic, there is a big trof digging in east of the system, I figured that the big peice of this would break away and come north.. what goes down must come up on the other side... East coast be ready for whatever this thing trows at us..

Bring it on.. we need the rain here



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Air Force Met]

big blow up of convection near what appears to me to be a low level center forming!

That's where the lowest pressure is right now (~1007 mb) ...and the convection is still east of it. You also still have the problem of shear. You use an ! like you are exited for it to happen. You have to be careful and not let enthusiasm cloud your judgment of the facts.

[CHRISTY]

look at the satilite loop i posted whats up with that deep red fireing up?

[Dean4Storms]

It is clear that the shear will have to relax before this system gets going and I beleive by that time the surface low will be off the SW coast of FL. It will then have a small window of time in the Gulf before the forecasted CONUS trough interacts with it turning it into more baroclinic driven, reminds me of TS Josehine in 96. The trough should pick it up and move it toward the eastern Panhandle.


Of course it will not originate as far west as Josehpine, but the synoptics coming together and the baroclinic forcing and trough pick-up look familiar to this set-up.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif