92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dhweather]

000
FXUS64 KJAN 040853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST. WEAK WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGES OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME
SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE. /03/

NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING. FORECAST STILL LOOKS
QUITE UNEVENTFUL FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
LIMPS THROUGH HERE THU.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND IN THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY ESTRLY TO ENESTRLY WIND THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH HAS STILL YET TO DEVELOP...PUSHING INTO THE
NESTRN GOM LL AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THIS WILL HAVE BIG
IMPLICATIONS ON THU AS THE FRONT TRIES TO WORKS ITS WAY SEWRD. WED
WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR TEMPS TO BE ABV NORMAL.

ON THU THE FRONT WILL VERY SLUGGISHLY SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE MAIN
EFFECTS FROM IT REALLY WON`T BE FELT TILL FRI AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO GET SHRA TO DEVELOP IN THE
EAST. BESIDES THE LACK OF MOISTURE OTHER PROBLEMS LOOK TO BE NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND VERY WEAK LL CONVERGENCE. SO WITH ALL OF
THAT I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SO I WILL GO
BELOW GUIDANCE IN A FEW LOCALS.

AS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. I AM STILL AT ODDS WITH THIS POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE WAY THE MDLS TRY TO HANDLE IT. ALL OF THE
MDLS STILL INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLY "TAMMY" BUT STILL
WANT TO MAKE THIS COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP. I JUST DON`T SEE THAT
HAPPENING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WHATEVER MIGHT
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY JUST RECURVE TO THE NE AND OUR CWA WILL BE
AFFECTED VERY MINIMALLY IF AT ALL.ABOUT 18 TO 24 HRS AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP THINGS COOL
OFF DECENTLY AROUND THE AREA FRI AND SAT. THE COOLEST MORNING WILL
BE SAT MORNING WITH PARTS OF THE CWA SEEING LOWS SAT MORNING IN THE
UPPER 40S. THE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS AS WE
LOOK TO ONLY MIX OUT TO ABOUT H925 TO H9. THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE THE
REGION HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FRI AND MID 70S SAT.

ON SUN WE START TO WARM UP ONCE AGAIN FOR HIGHS BUT LOOK FOR LOWS TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO THE LACK OF LL MOISTURE. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WHEN A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. LL
WINDS LOOK TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHRA AND TSRA. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY STRATUS WITH CIGS NEAR 1000 FEET WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD SUNRISE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY AND WILL CLEAR
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 88 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM: 03
LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION: 03

[artist]

this from the NWS Miami office -

.DISCUSSION...STRONG GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE PRODUCING WINDS OF 17
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATER TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE/WEAK LOW
NEARS.

A WEAK OPEN LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTHEAST OF ANDROS
ISLAND WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOW. THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND MOVE IT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM KEY LARGO TO THE NAPLES AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS CREATES A 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND FIELD AROUND THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANTS AND DEEPENS THE LOW TO AROUND
1000 MB OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
BRINGS AN OPEN LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF A 1006 MB LOW
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. THE SHEAR APPEARS A BIT TOO STRONG
ATTM FOR THE NAM SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.

THE WEATHER GETS INTERESTING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A SECONDARY LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN ONE GETS PICKED UP BY A
SHORT WAVE AND EJECTS IT NORTHEAST TO THE PUNTA GORDA AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN LOW JUST DRIFTS SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN BY SATURDAY BY A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AND LOWERING MID LEVEL PRESSURES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER SATURDAY.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

[artist]

should have added this with it-

THERE WILL BE HIGH POPS (CATEGORICAL) FORECASTED TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH HIGH QPF VALUES. THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE RAIN WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL START WHEN THE
SECONDARY LOW STARTS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AND VERY HIGH OMEGA VALUES, LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. AN ESF (FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK) HAS BEEN ISSUED YESTERDAY
AND WILL BE EXTENDED BEFORE 7 AM. IT IS A BIT EARLY YET TO ISSUE A
WATCH.

&&

[Ivanhater]

i think the mobile/pensacola afd is what airforce met is saying, not sure


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY)...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
MORNING...STILL LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP
FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NAMELY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS STILL
FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS THEN
SIMILAR IN CLOSING OFF A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BY 12Z FRIDAY THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA...AND BE KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. BY 00Z SATURDAY...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED ON TO THE SOUTH...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
COAST. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW. WE STILL LEAN TOWARD
THE GULF LOW BEING MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE DISTURBANCE VS A PURELY
TROPICAL LOW...GIVEN THAT A LARGE RIDGE WITH A MUCH COOLER AND A
DEEP LAYER DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT MAY START OUT MORE TROPICAL IN
NATURE...BUT THEN TRANSITION OVER TO MORE OF A BAROCLINIC NATURE.
AT ANY RATE...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BEGIN LIFTING THE GULF
LOW UP TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
KEEP PRIMARY AFFECTS OF THE GULF LOW GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF FCST
AREA...WITH THIS WEATHER FEATURE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY OF CONCERN TO
MARINE INTERESTS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
MORNING...EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MOIST GULF SYSTEM BEGINS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS
RAPIDLY UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT POPS TO
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FCST AREA BY SATURDAY...THEN
REMAINING RAINFREE THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY. LOOK FOR A COOL DOWN OF
NEARLY 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

[Air Force Met]

Oh...it's messed up...and yes...it could develop when the shear let's up...but that isn't going to happen anytime soon....especially if it moves west into the GoM. Now...if it heads north and stays under a little ridging (which still has some hear because it's not an anticyclone) it has a much better chance. The shear in the GoM will not abate anytime soon.

I am confused by this post from a Pro Met???? The NHC says that conditions will IMPROVE as the system moves west (ie..into the Gulf). All the National Weather Service forecast discussions from Florida (Melbourne, Miami, Tampa, Key West) state that development of this system is more likely once the system crosses Florida into the Gulf..

Why the discrepency in opinions????

--Lou

You have never read anywhere where I said it would not develop...and you have not read it today...please do not take me out of context. And I agree it stands a better chance of development once in the eastern GoM as compaired to now...which is also something I have said...no development soon...but something in teh eastern GoM...but a hybrid sheared system.

So...there is no discrepancy...and I think if you could talk to the mets who you were quoting...you would see that they too believe that anything that develops in the GoM will not be some pure tropical system...but something that is a hybrid...because of the shear. And they also believe, as i do, that development there is much more possible because right now...the conditions aren't there to produce a good hyrbid storm...but they also don't support anything developing tropically other than a weak, disorganized TD.

So there really is no difference of opinions. I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...it's just I am being a little more detailed in the forecast than they are.

[Air Force Met]

i think the mobile/pensacola afd is what airforce met is saying, not sure

Thanks...that is exactly what I've been saying...just in bits and pieces here and there. Nice summary and that is what I expect to happen.

Good find ivanhater...

[Ivanhater]

i think the mobile/pensacola afd is what airforce met is saying, not sure

Thanks...that is exactly what I've been saying...just in bits and pieces here and there. Nice summary and that is what I expect to happen.

Good find ivanhater...

lol, i try

[gatorcane]

You have never read anywhere where I said it would not develop...and you have not read it today...please do not take me out of context. And I agree it stands a better chance of development once in the eastern GoM as compaired to now...which is also something I have said...no development soon...but something in teh eastern GoM...but a hybrid sheared system.

So...there is no discrepancy...and I think if you could talk to the mets who you were quoting...you would see that they too believe that anything that develops in the GoM will not be some pure tropical system...but something that is a hybrid...because of the shear. And they also believe, as i do, that development there is much more possible because right now...the conditions aren't there to produce a good hyrbid storm...but they also don't support anything developing tropically other than a weak, disorganized TD.

So there really is no difference of opinions. I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...it's just I am being a little more detailed in the forecast than they are.

I hybrid of what> The GOM currently still has tropical conditions and increased shear does not mean hybrid. I don't follow your hybrid scenario. The NHC says shear is lessening within the next couple of days and that includes the eastern GOM.

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...BUT AN AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TOMORROW.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS... INCLUDING FLOOD
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

[Ivanhater]

You have never read anywhere where I said it would not develop...and you have not read it today...please do not take me out of context. And I agree it stands a better chance of development once in the eastern GoM as compaired to now...which is also something I have said...no development soon...but something in teh eastern GoM...but a hybrid sheared system.

So...there is no discrepancy...and I think if you could talk to the mets who you were quoting...you would see that they too believe that anything that develops in the GoM will not be some pure tropical system...but something that is a hybrid...because of the shear. And they also believe, as i do, that development there is much more possible because right now...the conditions aren't there to produce a good hyrbid storm...but they also don't support anything developing tropically other than a weak, disorganized TD.

So there really is no difference of opinions. I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...it's just I am being a little more detailed in the forecast than they are.

I hybrid of what> The GOM currently still has tropical conditions and increased shear does not mean hybrid. I don't follow your hybrid scenario. The NHC says shear is lessening within the next couple of days and that includes the eastern GOM.

read the mobile/pensacola afd above, they are thinking the same as airforce met

[caneman]

You have never read anywhere where I said it would not develop...and you have not read it today...please do not take me out of context. And I agree it stands a better chance of development once in the eastern GoM as compaired to now...which is also something I have said...no development soon...but something in teh eastern GoM...but a hybrid sheared system.

So...there is no discrepancy...and I think if you could talk to the mets who you were quoting...you would see that they too believe that anything that develops in the GoM will not be some pure tropical system...but something that is a hybrid...because of the shear. And they also believe, as i do, that development there is much more possible because right now...the conditions aren't there to produce a good hyrbid storm...but they also don't support anything developing tropically other than a weak, disorganized TD.

So there really is no difference of opinions. I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...it's just I am being a little more detailed in the forecast than they are.

I hybrid of what> The GOM currently still has tropical conditions and increased shear does not mean hybrid. I don't follow your hybrid scenario. The NHC says shear is lessening within the next couple of days and that includes the eastern GOM.

read the mobile/pensacola afd above, they are thinking the same as airforce met

In the grand scheme of things I'm not sure that it matters. At most West Florida will get a lot of rain and probably anywhere from 35-70 mph winds.

[fwbbreeze]

You have never read anywhere where I said it would not develop...and you have not read it today...please do not take me out of context. And I agree it stands a better chance of development once in the eastern GoM as compaired to now...which is also something I have said...no development soon...but something in teh eastern GoM...but a hybrid sheared system.

So...there is no discrepancy...and I think if you could talk to the mets who you were quoting...you would see that they too believe that anything that develops in the GoM will not be some pure tropical system...but something that is a hybrid...because of the shear. And they also believe, as i do, that development there is much more possible because right now...the conditions aren't there to produce a good hyrbid storm...but they also don't support anything developing tropically other than a weak, disorganized TD.

So there really is no difference of opinions. I have said development in the eastern GoM as a hybrid (which the people you quoted are not really going into that much detail about) or up the east coast as something a little more tropical. Been saying that for 2 days now...no difference of opinion...it's just I am being a little more detailed in the forecast than they are.

I hybrid of what> The GOM currently still has tropical conditions and increased shear does not mean hybrid. I don't follow your hybrid scenario. The NHC says shear is lessening within the next couple of days and that includes the eastern GOM.

GIVEN THAT A LARGE RIDGE WITH A MUCH COOLER AND A
DEEP LAYER DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT MAY START OUT MORE TROPICAL IN
NATURE...BUT THEN TRANSITION OVER TO MORE OF A BAROCLINIC NATURE

Boca_Chris, this is a quote from the Mobile AFD above posted by ivanhater. This explains why it will be a hybrid system as opposed to a purely tropical system.

fwbbreeze

[Air Force Met]

I hybrid of what> The GOM currently still has tropical conditions and increased shear does not mean hybrid. I don't follow your hybrid scenario. The NHC says shear is lessening within the next couple of days and that includes the eastern GOM.

I'm thinking you don't know what a hybrid really is...which is not a slam...but you need to understand it to know what we mean by it. Just because SST's can support a tropical cyclone doesn't mean you only get tropical storms and no hybrids.

You are correct...shear doesn't mean hybrid. The definition of a hybrid is really wide open. When I say it...as I have defined...I am meaning a storm that has some extra-tropical characteristics...like the deepening that occurs does so by baroclinic forcing...not by latent heat release. Hybrids usually develop over SSt's that are 80F+..but they do so in conjunction with an upper level low...usually located to their west. In that upper flow around the low...there is ridging that works over the top and provides for the divergence aloft needed...but still with shearing winds aloft. Dry air usually works in with hybrid-type storms and that is why all the precip is on the east side (works in from the west with the upper low).

You get hybrid type storms deep in the tropics in teh middle of the season. Hybrid does not mean (and has never meant) something that develops over marginal SSt's only...late in October or November.

As far as the NHC is concerned...they have been calling for the shear to lessen for a while now...and it hasn't.

This is from Sunday: ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

Notice the "could" and "are expected" (in most recent ones). Upper level winds are more favorable for development...and if it's hybrid it is still going to be called Tammy. They will be more conducive to produce something...but it won't be purely tropical. The deepening will be baroclinically forced to some degree.

There...hope that is finally clear. Conditions will be more favorable for (hybrid) development as the system enters the eastern Gom.

NOw...for those who think there will be NO shear...then how are the models so far off in forecasting the upper level low over that area?

[cycloneye]

SUSPECT AREA (FLORIDA EAST COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 27.0N 78.5W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

IF and is a big if at this point the system gets enough organization in the next 24 hours then above you can see the mission that is programmed to go again (If Necessary) with a takeoff at 10:30 AM EDT.

[TampaFl]

[hurricanedude]

is that area of blossoming convection the "so called" surface low?

[cjrciadt]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

[x-y-no]

The European is still sticking with the loop in the Gulf idea that it had both runs yesterday ...

(7 day)



That's 92L over the western tip of Cuba. The low off the Georgia coast is a homebrew development which starts day 5.

The consistancy of runs is intersting, as is the fact that the GFDL has a very similar solution.

[Ivanhater]

how far north does it go before it loops xy?

[x-y-no]

how far north does it go before it loops xy?

Not as far as yesterday's runs Here's day 3: