Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jasons2k]

Dr. Neil Frank just said there is concern Stan may stall right along the coast as steering currents collapse. He did not speculate beyond that.

[Rainband]

Time will tell. It's been an unpredictable year thats for sure.

[Starburst]

I tell you a couple more of these years and we will all need to check into the funny farm.

[vaffie]

I can't believe how long Stan's cloud tops have been this cold--like 20 hours straight with no intermission! Surely it's pressure must be bombing. I've never seen a storm with this ominous a look as a tropical storm. I've practically never seen a hurricane with this ominous a look. All it needs is an eye, and it will look SO menacing. Those last two images of it before the eclipse began almost make it look like a lion pouncing. What a horror it would be if it stalled and then started to move north. Models like the GFS and GFDL don't quite understand the way major hurricanes recreate their environment to help or hurt themselves, affecting the surface and upper level highs and lows that were supposed to direct and feed them--strengthening some and weakening others. They decide what they want to do--they are constantly feeding on vast amounts of oceanic energy, and often, when strong enough, when the winds on their north side are stronger than those on their south, they simply like to drag themselves northward by hook or by crook, so help us all. Only occasionally do they go south--only when they've fed the high to their north--like Katrina did over Florida. Anyway, these are just my opinions, so don't shoot me!

Take a deep breath, smile, and go to bed. If what I say bothers you, just think, "It's going away from me--into Mexico, and will disappear off the face of the Earth very soon", and then go to bed.

[gilbert88]

Take a deep breath, smile, and go to bed. If what I say bothers you, just think, "It's going away from me--into Mexico, and will disappear off the face of the Earth very soon", and then go to bed.

Do you know where everyone lives? How can you assume nobody in Mexico reads and posts here?

Ugh, ignorance and selfishness don't make a good mix.

[Starburst]

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE
COAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED
EASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODELS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING.

Please someone explain what vertically decoupled is

[Brent]

It means the low-level and mid-level circulation separate which would cause the storm to weaken. A well-organized system would have the low and mid-level circulation in the same place.

[audioslave8]

Looks as if Stan will make it to CAT1 Hurricane before landfall with this latest advisory. It's good he's moving faster than expected now so there shouldn't be any threat for it to stall out and have it be any threat to southern Texas or any other states, not that it ever was to begin with. Once again the NHC has nailed this one. Congrats to them.

[Brent]

1am special advisory has him at 90 kt(105 mph) at landfall...

[audioslave8]

1am special advisory has him at 90 kt(105 mph) at landfall...

WOW!!! The pressure is dropping faster than I thought. We should know his real strength after next advisory. It's amazing how some storms strengthen so quickley especially this season. I'm Glad Stan the man wants to pick up the pace. If he stalled long enough he could of ended up being a borderline CAT 2/3 storm at landfall.

[superfly]

WOW, cold tops are reaching -90C!!!!

[mtm4319]

The eclipse is over... I'll let this pic speak for itself.

[Starburst]

OH MY!!

[mtm4319]

04/0645 UTC 19.2N 94.4W T4.0/4.0 STAN

Up 1.0 CI number in 7 hours... they estimate a 75mph hurricane.

[AZRainman]

Looks like the center is reforming farther to the SW.

[mtm4319]

Stan is now a hurricane and is only 35 miles from the Mexican coast.

[FlSteel]

My prayers go out to all who are in the way of Stan. Hopefully he will make landfall soon before he strengthens much more. It looks like those people down there in Mexico are just getting hammered right now. That is some seriously deep convection on IR this morning.

[Josephine96]

If hes' only 35 miles out.,. then at least he should be on land soon, thank God.. not much strengthening time..

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 040925
TCUAT5
HURRICANE STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

SHORTLY AFTER THE 4 AM CDT ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...DATA FROM THE
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE STAN HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB

[gilbert88]

More than 31 people killed by Stan-related floods in El Salvador and Guatemala. Adding the person who died in Cancun, this brings Stan's death toll to 32.