Oceanic Heat Content

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vacanechaser
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Oceanic Heat Content

#1 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:46 pm

Image

So, what do people think about this??? looks like the heat content is a bit low for the Bahamas system to get really ramped up... I know the water temps are plenty warm, however, if this map is correct, and it came from AOML, then it may be working with little heat content in the Gulf and up the east coast, of course taking into consideration that I think it may run the coast. Any thoughts on the map??

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#2 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Oct 03, 2005 4:56 pm

Just to give you an idea what I mean, here is what it looked like before or just as Katrina was coming through the area

Image


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#3 Postby ChaserUK » Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:14 pm

but sea temp alone is not the only defining factor. Great warm eddy there for Katrina however.
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#4 Postby artist » Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:16 pm

surprising to me how quickly it has lost its heat.
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#5 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:20 pm

ChaserUK wrote:but sea temp alone is not the only defining factor. Great warm eddy there for Katrina however.



That I understand.. Have been chasing these things for 5 years now.. :wink:

However, if there is no fuel, or limited fuel then the car dont go... The upper levels are improving, but when katrina and Rita moved away from the warmer heat content regions, they started to weaken as well...


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#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:43 pm

artist wrote:surprising to me how quickly it has lost its heat.


Two Cat 5's within one month and then the onset of fall really takes a toll on warm water.
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#7 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Oct 03, 2005 5:50 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
artist wrote:surprising to me how quickly it has lost its heat.


Two Cat 5's within one month and then the onset of fall really takes a toll on warm water.


no doubt... the twin terrors had a lot to do with it.. just sucked the heat right out... did their job!! :D


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#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:36 pm

there appears to be enough heat content to support a cat 4. Cat 4's have occurred where the content is 60 (yes, much less than Katrina, but then again, the MPI for Katrina at the time was about 800mb, according to some model simulations)
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#9 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:there appears to be enough heat content to support a cat 4. Cat 4's have occurred where the content is 60 (yes, much less than Katrina, but then again, the MPI for Katrina at the time was about 800mb, according to some model simulations)


What is MPI?
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#10 Postby ocracoke » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:59 pm

Maximum potential intensity.
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#11 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:10 pm

ocracoke wrote:Maximum potential intensity.


Thanks, I should've known that.

800 mb, WOW!!! :eek:
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#12 Postby f5 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:47 pm

Some said that Rita won't become a CAT 5 due to Katrina sucking up all the heat well guess what Rita-897mb Katrina-902mb doesn't look like she sucked up enough
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#13 Postby StormWarning1 » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:31 pm

Heat content is not the only factor. Once surface temps reach or exceed 85 then upper level support is more important for strengthning. Rita had the dual outflow channels and is the reason for the Cat 5 status.
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:06 pm

Rita was very close to the MPI

this means Rita probably had better dynamical support than did Katrina
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#15 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Oct 04, 2005 2:03 pm

How can there be that little heat content off the coast of Florida? I know that water is PLENTY warm...
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Derek Ortt

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 04, 2005 3:28 pm

water is VERY shallow there
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