92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

I especially hope the UKMET doesn't verify. Ugh... crazy.

No joke...what the hell is the UKM thinking?

[Air Force Met]

it is highly unlikely anything will form close to the convection...
(airforce met)

Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection (wxman57)


who do we believe?

It's actually the same statement in wx man terms. Let me clarify...I was speaking in terms of right now...given the flow. Read my disclaimer from that post. I stated it would have to slow down and the flow relax...and allow for concentrated convection to form and STAY. If that happens...that is where the low will form and the current LLC (which isn't really closed) will move west and die.

You got to read it ALL ivanhater ....Don't take me outta context

As of right now...there is no way a new LLC will form near that "scattered convection" (I said that...right?). It will have to become much more concentrated in order for that to happen and as long as the flow is strong out of the ESE in that area...because the wave axis is to the west...no LLC will form. What has to happen is the flow has to relax and the MLC has to work down to the sfc. That takes time.

[Ivanhater]

it is highly unlikely anything will form close to the convection...
(airforce met)

Any LLC would likely form farther east in the convection (wxman57)


who do we believe?

It's actually the same statement in wx man terms. Let me clarify...I was speaking in terms of right now...given the flow. Read my disclaimer from that post. I stated it would have to slow down and the flow relax...and allow for concentrated convection to form and STAY. If that happens...that is where the low will form and the current LLC (which isn't really closed) will move west and die.

You got to read it ALL ivanhater ....Don't take me outta context

As of right now...there is no way a new LLC will form near that "scattered convection" (I said that...right?). It will have to become much more concentrated in order for that to happen and as long as the flow is strong out of the ESE in that area...because the wave axis is to the west...no LLC will form. What has to happen is the flow has to relax and the MLC has to work down to the sfc. That takes time.

ah, ok... the earlier posts were confusing...im just a freshman met student, gotta come down to my level,

[Air Force Met]

ah, ok... the earlier posts were confusing...im just a freshman met student, gotta come down to my level,

You'll learn eventually how to lie with the best

Seriously...in a met's mind...there is rarely such a thing as "it won't happen." It's usually "it won't happen...unless..." The reason we think that way is because we have been burned before. Now...I can say with a certaintly that there will be no snow falling from the sky...in Houston..with this next cold front. When it comes to tropical systems...you can't say it will or won't...only "given the current synoptics and forecasted upper air environment...it appears likely or unlikely." People may think that is coping out...but it's not. It's being smart because you know how complex the environment is. Just like with 92L...given the current setup...and the 48 hour upper air forecast by most of the models...there is no way the current vortmax develops into a purely tropical system and becomes a hurricane. However, a subtropical storm (or hybrid) or some strength is possible if the forecast stays the same...and a hurricane is possible if the upper level environment is completely different than forecast. Show me someone who can absolutely state with confidence and 100% accuracy that one or the other will certainly occur and I will show you someone who is grossly underpaid and should be freelancing.

[Ivanhater]

ah, ok... the earlier posts were confusing...im just a freshman met student, gotta come down to my level,

You'll learn eventually how to lie with the best

Seriously...in a met's mind...there is rarely such a thing as "it won't happen." It's usually "it won't happen...unless..." The reason we think that way is because we have been burned before. Now...I can say with a certaintly that there will be no snow falling from the sky...in Houston..with this next cold front. When it comes to tropical systems...you can't say it will or won't...only "given the current synoptics and forecasted upper air environment...it appears likely or unlikely." People may think that is coping out...but it's not. It's being smart because you know how complex the environment is. Just like with 92L...given the current setup...and the 48 hour upper air forecast by most of the models...there is no way the current vortmax develops into a purely tropical system and becomes a hurricane. However, a subtropical storm (or hybrid) or some strength is possible if the forecast stays the same...and a hurricane is possible if the upper level environment is completely different than forecast. Show me someone who can absolutely state with confidence and 100% accuracy that one or the other will certainly occur and I will show you someone who is grossly underpaid and should be freelancing.

haaaaa, im learning from the best ... thanks for the info, im gonna need it

[x-y-no]

12Z European has a pretty interesting track for this system ....


Carries it through the Florida Straits as a weak low: (day 2)




then north towards the Florida Panhandle: (day 3)




then trapped by ridging to the north, drifting slowly WSW: (day 4)




south in the eastern Gulf: (day 5)




southwest towards western Cuba: (day 6)




and still hanging out there on day 7:

[Canelaw99]

If that Euro verifies, we're all going to be needing a vacation and coffee detox! LOL

[Brent]

[CHRISTY]

[img]Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
An tropical disturbance approaching the central Bahama Islands is poised to sock Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday with heavy rains and high winds. While the shear is a high 10 - 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 5 - 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an upper-level anticyclone on top. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Florida, and a reconnaissance flight is scheduled for Tuesday at 11 am. Beaches along central Florida are already suffering erosion from the large pounding waves emanating from this disturbance.

The forecast track of this disturbance is complicated by the expected interaction with a cold front forecast to move over the East Coast by the end of the week, and an upper-level low pressure system expected to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The GFS model shows the disturbance splitting into two storms, one that tracks across Southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and the other which moves northward along the coast, brushing the Carolinas and New England. Neither storm has a very good chance to develop into a hurricane. Anything moving into the Gulf will encounter the upper-level low and its shearing winds. An East Coast storm would have low shear and a favorable upper-level winds for development, but not much time over warm water. Regardless, Florida is in for a very wet week with potential serious flooding problems, both from the rains of the tropical disturbance, and from the upper-level low, which is likely to entrain copious tropical moisture over the state.
[/img]

[Ivanhater]

hmmm, that is interesting.....wait till the media gets ahold of that if it happens....storm looping in the gulf

[Anthysteg]

So Louisiana is safe from this storm it appears?

[Canelaw99]

Christy - what is that from?

[hicksta]

I think we will find out if god likes New orleans

[CHRISTY]

jeff masters web site on wunder weather!he said this has potential to be a td or pretty good tropical storm.

[x-y-no]

Christy - what is that from?

Dr. Jeff Masters' blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[cycloneye]

A LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...BUT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY.


5:30 PM TWO.

[Ivanhater]

dont they, most of the time, mention it becoming a hybrid or subtropical system, like "has the potential to become a tropical or subtropical system"?.

[dougjp]

The Euro looks like the Canadian mentioned here this morning.

[tracyswfla]

A LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...BUT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND
REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY.


5:30 PM TWO.

Well there ya go getting a bit better organized and thinkin about sending the plane in tomorrow, if necessary.

[Recurve]

Sounds like real interesting weather for Florida. I'll take it over anything worse though.