#148 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:12 am
Want Massive Confusion with Stan.......Check out the latest WeatherUnderground Blog from Dr. Jeff Masters
Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is quickly re-organizing over waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The chances for continued intensification a are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.
The forecast of a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday has increased in confidence since yesterday, but is still uncertain. Stan is being driven westward at 10 mph by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will gradually weaken Tuesday as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S., and Stan will slow down in response. All of the models are now forecasting that the ridge will remain strong enough to carry Stan all the way to the coast. However, there is still a distinct chance that Stan may stall just before the coast, or make landfall, then pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify. Stan may then remain in the Gulf many days, and may eventually move north and threaten the U.S.
Complicating the forecast is the fact that a tropical depression my form tomorrow along the Pacific Mexican coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 100 miles south of the Gulf of Mexico. Storm-storm interactions among two tropical storms are not well understood, and the development of a new tropical depression on the other side of Mexico will make the current forecasts of Stan's motion Wednesday and beyond very dubious. And to complicate matters further, a non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to form over the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, potentially making a set of three storms that will all interact in unpredictable ways. One positive note about this development is that the upper-level winds associated with this new non-tropical low would bring significant wind shear and weaken Stan--if he is still there. If Stan is not there, at least one model (the UKMET) suggests that this non-tropical low would meander over the Gulf of Mexico for many days, and potentially acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
.. As I said, a Cat.2 would not surprise me.
.. I hope Stan won't reach Canestrength before landfall but I don't see any reason why it wouldn't .. 
Big Time!
