92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

CHRISTY · #41 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:15 am

its moving west! at maybe 5 mph! the front to the north is to far to catch it before it reaches florida so i say futher development is a good possibility.

nequad · #42 Postby **nequad** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:17 am

Boy AccuWX always has to be the Outlier..Saying North FL the up the east Coast...All by Wed....WTF?

Well by day three anything approaching the SE coast should begin to turn more northerly as a cold front and upper trough approach the East coast.
That's what Accuwx is basing their forecast on I'm sure.

Frank2 · #43 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:19 am

Yes, as I was mentioning last evening, this front is forecast to be the first "strong" cold front of the season (the NWS local discussion over the weekend mentioned it "sweeping southeastward" by late week), so, anything that forms to the east will most likely remain to the east of Florida.

Frank

CHRISTY · #44 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:20 am

we will see look how close it is already!

Frank2 · #45 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:21 am

It's still 700 miles east of Florida - it appears closer that it is...

Frank

#46 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:22 am

Frank2 wrote:Yes, as I was mentioning last evening, this front is forecast to be the first "strong" cold front of the season (the NWS local discussion over the weekend mentioned it "sweeping southeastward" by late week), so, anything that forms to the east will most likely remain to the east of Florida.

Frank

not 1 global model shows that...they all bring it in the gulf and loop it

cinlfla · #47 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:22 am

Is there model runs for 92L yet?

CHRISTY · #48 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:23 am

yes that is a strong front but this feature will be past florida by then!there saying this front will be coming down in 2-3 days so we will see what happens.

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:25 am

cinlfla wrote:Is there model runs for 92L yet?

No 12:00z run from the tropical models yet for it as I haven't seen any.

nequad · #50 Postby **nequad** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:25 am

Christy- Keep in mind the time of year. We are now in October...which means summer is over. This means cold frontal passages become more and more frequent over the ERN U.S. It would be very rare for a tropical system to strike the East coast of Florida this time of year. That's not to say it can't happen, but chances are low.

CHRISTY · #51 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:27 am

must models bring 92L into the gulf ,then once tha front comes down it makes the system turn back into florida. opinions!so iam saying southflorida well be in for nasty weather to say the least!

Anonymous · #52 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:28 am

In early October 1941, a Category 3 "major" hurricane struck Key Largo, FL....also, it formed on this date in the same area as invest 92L...

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:28 am

CHRISTY wrote:must models bring 92L into the gulf ,then once tha front comes down it makes the system turn back into florida. opinions!so iam saying southflorida well be in for nasty weather to say the least!

Take a deep breath... :roll:

#54 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:28 am

CHRISTY wrote:must models bring 92L into the gulf ,then once tha front comes down it makes the system turn back into florida. opinions!so iam saying southflorida well be in for nasty weather to say the least!

That would be weird if it truly happened that way. A system hits the east coast of florida and then does a loop to turn around and hit the west side of the state.

<RICKY>

Frank2 · #55 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:29 am

Re: ivanhater's post

Some mention a loop, but, the NWS discussion I read sometime between late Friday and yesterday morning (I forget) mentioned the cold front, as does AccuWeather this morning per the other poster, so, apparently this front is still a viable feature.

The thing to remember is that the weather pattern this late in the season is very, for lack of a better word, "variable", and, it's often very difficult for forecasters to determine movement of a given tropical system with any level of confidence. Hurricane Gordon (1994) was a good example of this - click on

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

to view.

Frank

Anonymous · #56 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:30 am

I would stick with the NHC rather than Accuweather...so much for 80 mph winds in Dallas...the NHC has been very good this year.

cinlfla · #57 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:31 am

The thing to remember is that the weather pattern this late in the season is very, for lack of a better word, "variable", and, it's often very difficult for forecasters to determine movement of a given tropical system with any level of confidence. Hurricane Gordon (1994) was a good example of this

If I remember right Hurricane Gordon was one confused storm was doing loopde loops.

CHRISTY · #58 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:31 am

aren't models showing somewhat of a loop with this!

#59 Postby **Downdraft** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:31 am

Sure looks to me like something is trying to get itself together around 23N73W. Hard to say at the moment but it's looking a lot better this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#60 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:32 am

Check out Floydbusters post a few posts above and you can see that it is entirely possible for a hurricane to hit the east coast of FL even at this time of year.

<RICKY>

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