Stan SW/W Path???

[gk1]

Stan is far to the South. Hopefully, he will stay on the path and increase his forward motion. If it slows, it will be hard for Stan to strike Mexico. Upper-Level wind pattern will turn from SW to NE across the GOM late Tuesday.

[beachbum_al]

Do we have a Stan yet?

Sorry about that...I just went to the NHC site and yes there is a TS Stan. WOW!

And I hope he does move fast and doesn't come NE.

[mvtrucking]

Stan is far to the South. Hopefully, he will stay on the path and increase his forward motion. If it slows, it will be hard for Stan to strike Mexico. Upper-Level wind pattern will turn from SW to NE across the GOM late Tuesday.

Thanks Gk1. I had no idea this could be a factor this week. I had thought the setup would keep Stan well south. Lets hope this doesn't materialize.

MV

[skysummit]

If you look at the WV loop, you can see a big trough heading east, however, most pro mets are saying that the ridge will hold in place long enough to keep Stan south of the U.S.

[Brent]

He's Mexico bound... I just don't see anything that can turn him towards the Northern Gulf in time. It's that time of year, but the feature is lacking.

[Anthysteg]

If you look at the WV loop, you can see a big trough heading east, however, most pro mets are saying that the ridge will hold in place long enough to keep Stan south of the U.S.

They believe this will happen because computer models predicted it. The same computer models that predicted Rita to hit Galveston.



Still not satisfied.

[Brent]

If you look at the WV loop, you can see a big trough heading east, however, most pro mets are saying that the ridge will hold in place long enough to keep Stan south of the U.S.

They believe this will happen because computer models predicted it. The same computer models that predicted Rita to hit Galveston.



Still not satisfied.

Rita hit 65 miles east of Galveston.

The forecast for this is OVER 300 miles south of Brownsville.

[Anthysteg]

If you look at the WV loop, you can see a big trough heading east, however, most pro mets are saying that the ridge will hold in place long enough to keep Stan south of the U.S.

They believe this will happen because computer models predicted it. The same computer models that predicted Rita to hit Galveston.



Still not satisfied.

Rita hit 65 miles east of Galveston.

The forecast for this is OVER 300 miles south of Brownsville.

True, but the eye broke down which allowed Rita to get affected by less prominent steering currents. If Rita would have held strength she probably would have made the infamous east curve into Cameron.


I understand your logic but, the possiblity of this ridging could change or the eye can reform or it could stall out.


Many possibilites can keep this thing from following the NHC's path.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, the models shifted right on the latest 12Z run.

[CajunMama]

This was in the Lake Charles NWS Special Weather Statement...I don't think the conus has anything to worry about.

"TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN JUST BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE YUCATAN TODAY...
AND EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STAN IS
EXPECTED TO STAY ON A WESTERLY COURSE THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME...MAKING
LANDFALL BETWEEN TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
MINIMAL HURRICANE. STAN POSES NO DIRECT THREAT TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA!"

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +Statement

[wxwatcher91]

quite an active year for the BOC: Bret, Gert, Jose, and now Stan

[Anthysteg]

quite an active year for the BOC: Bret, Gert, Jose, and now Stan

::cough Emily too cough::

[Rainband]

The NHC has done very well this year. Nothing to push this north. Forecast seems very good.

[wxwatcher91]

quite an active year for the BOC: Bret, Gert, Jose, and now Stan

::cough Emily too cough::

a little to the north but she could count too I guess lol

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

The Gulf in general is a storm machine this year. 4 major hurricanes reached that status in the Gulf. Hypothetically, if Stan strengthens rapidly but moves too slowly and hits the front, would he be sheared apart into a TS, or just curve northeastward?

[THead]

The Gulf in general is a storm machine this year. 4 major hurricanes reached that status in the Gulf. Hypothetically, if Stan strengthens rapidly but moves too slowly and hits the front, would he be sheared apart into a TS, or just curve northeastward?

Would just pick it up, steer it along the frontal boundary.

[WeatherEmperor]

I like the NHC forecast path.

<RICKY>

[THead]

Yeah, me too, he was asking a hypothetical question.