East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

CHRISTY · #161 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:28 am

this system looks alot better then it did yesterday i think we may a invest soon!

Hyperstorm · #162 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:46 am

Satellite imagery this morning reveals that the disturbance east of the Bahamas near 24N, 70W is gradually becoming better organized. There is a very well-defined mid-level circulation near those coordinates along with very heavy convection scattered throughout it. The next step would be for the MLC to drop down to the surface and that is only possible with deep convection OVER the mid-level center. Watch for any signs of that happening.

OK, but what about that strong shear that has been affecting it the past few days?

Well, there is new information this morning. You can see the fanning out of the convection in the north and east suggesting that the models were right in forecasting a developing anticyclone north of the system beginning today. This outflow pattern should become more established as time goes by if we follow their forecast. The day when conditions are expected to become even more favorable is tomorrow, when a stronger upper-level anticyclone is forecast to develop north of the Bahamas. If this happens, I totally expect something to pop up before it makes it to Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

It's interesting that what has been discussed in the models, so far is a hybrid type system developing ALONG the front (trough) over the Gulf of Mexico, once it makes it from the north late this week. However, if something develops out of this surface trough east of the Bahamas, it would likely be more tropical than anything that is being depicted by the Canadian model over the Gulf of Mexico. It would be interesting to see if we may have two systems developing (one for the disturbance east of the Bahamas, and another one along the trough in the Gulf of Mexico). There will also be the possibility of this system combining with the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and become a HUGE rainmaker.

I always fear the SSTs near the Bahamas, where many of our historic hurricanes have passed through and strengthened explosively if conditions aloft allow it. Although that's not highly likely with this system, it is worth keeping an eye out for it to be sure.

85*...

#163 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:51 am

As always a very detailed discussion Hyperstorm and I agree that from all this mess maybe two lows form that is why I have as the title East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Development.

CHRISTY · #164 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:57 am

were is this center? is it between the two blobs because the thunderstorms are fanning out to the south and to the north?

Hyperstorm · #165 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 6:59 am

I agree Cycloneye. It would be very interesting, to say the least, seeing what will happen over the next several days.

For the people that need visuals...I circled the area with the greatest cyclonic turning (in the mid-levels). I am quite surprised by the impressive turning at this early stage.

CHRISTY · #166 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:04 am

perfect thanks!a totally agree thats were i thought it wuz to somewere between 24north and 25.

#167 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:07 am

If the trend of organization continues to improve I can see an invest up later today for this.

#168 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:18 am

Hey guys,

How can you be sure of its movement towards the West towards Florida when a huge cold front that everybody mentions is supposed to be diggind down around the Thursday timeframe? Wont to front push this feature out to sea?

<RICKY>

CHRISTY · #169 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:26 am

actually i think the front is to far away to affect it!my opinion.

boca · #170 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:27 am

Which way is this heading since weather emperor brought up a good point about that cold front.

CHRISTY · #171 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:29 am

i actually think this later today and especially tonight will continue to get better organized!the way this area has been all season who knows how strong this may get before it gets to florida!

#172 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:31 am

CHRISTY wrote:i actually think this later today and especially tonight will continue to get better organized!the way this area has been all season who knows how strong this may get before it gets to florida!

That is what I fear, if and only if it does come to Florida as many here have suggested.

<RICKY>

CHRISTY · #173 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:31 am

hey boca last time i checked they said it was moving west arond 5-10 mph.

CHRISTY · #174 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:35 am

yep me to! just looking at it this morning its gotten more and more organized,remember this yesterday was a mess thunderstorms everywere !

inotherwords · #175 Postby **inotherwords** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:55 am

This a.m. our local met said that likely nothing would develop before this moves over FL, it will dump a lot of rain on FL, hang around for a while, then slowly move into the gulf where it has to be watched carefully, however cold front and dry air might affect it there. That it would be a storm but not a tropical storm. Said we could get up to 3" of rain, starting tomorrow.

wxwonder12 · #176 Postby **wxwonder12** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:59 am

Palm Beach mets said to watch it closley because some of the models do develop it but they did not say to what status. Either way it is going to be alot of rain.

#177 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:00 am

inotherwords wrote:This a.m. our local met said that likely nothing would develop before this moves over FL, it will dump a lot of rain on FL, hang around for a while, then slowly move into the gulf where it has to be watched carefully, however cold front and dry air might affect it there. That it would be a storm but not a tropical storm. Said we could get up to 3" of rain, starting tomorrow.

wow how many times have we heard that one with both Katrina and Rita and the rest is history. Well 92L has just been issued for that area courtesy of Luis. Check out the 92L thread for more.

<RICKY>

rainydaze · #178 Postby **rainydaze** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:02 am

From the Miami NWS...they're still not predicting any significant development of the wave.....only lotsa rain.

THE GFS BRINGS THE WAVE
THROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT THE ETA BRINGS IT THROUGH AS A CLOSED
1004 MB LOW. EVENTUALLY THE GFS DEVELOPS IT INTO A CLOSED LOW
LATER IN THE WEEK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE
THAT PUSHES THE COLD FRONT ALONG STARTS TO PICK UP THE LOW FRIDAY
AND DEEPENS IT TO A 1003 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND
MOVES IT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC NEAR DAYTONA SATURDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS LOW WILL BE
EXTRA-TROPICAL AND THE WIND FIELD AND STRENGTH MAY BE OVERDONE.
THIS FRONT MAY REACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY AND STALL.

Nancy · #179 Postby **Nancy** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:32 am

boca wrote:Which way is this heading since weather emperor brought up a good point about that cold front.

Two of our local Palm Beach County mets said this morning that it's headed directly toward us, whether it develops or not.

CHRISTY · #180 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:38 am

yea iam really interested in this area!

East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

Who is online