Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[vaffie]

Interesting NHC discussion on the possible interaction between Stan and "?Tammy?".

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0240.shtml?

[THead]

Interesting NHC discussion on the possible interaction between Stan and "?Tammy?".

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0240.shtml?

Interesting discussion, sounds like a little worry there. I'm confused though, Tammy? Are you saying this trough coming down is going to spawn Tammy? Haven't seen any discussion about that possibility yet.

[THead]

Oh, I think I see what you mean now, had to read the disco 4 times.......

'.......AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72 HOURS. '

[vaffie]

Oh, I think I see what you mean now, had to read the disco 4 times.......

'.......AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72 HOURS. '

Yes, I write "?Tammy?" because it is speculation of mine. The models are strongly suggesting this will become some kind of tropical or subtropical low in the Gulf, as the NHC has mentioned. So, if it develops, it would be called Tammy, because there's nothing else in the Basin that will develop that soon. The NAM makes it strong, the GFS leaves it weak. My inclination is that it will be strong--it already looks like once the shear is gone it will develop fast, and I don't want to bet against anything staying weak over the Gulf Stream, the Bahamas and south Florida this year. We've seen what they can do.

[skysummit]

I am now confused as all hell. I just finished watching "Master and Commander", come back online, and find this wierd discussion from the NHC. Anyone care to give me a quick run through of what they're talking about?

[vaffie]

I am now confused as all hell. I just finished watching "Master and Commander", come back online, and find this wierd discussion from the NHC. Anyone care to give me a quick run through of what they're talking about?

I'll try: There's a ridge to the north and west of Stan that is pushing it west and then southwest into Mexico. If the low east of the Bahamas enters the Gulf late tomorrow night and early Tuesday morning and develops quickly as the global models are predicting (perhaps into Tammy or some subtropical beast), in 48-72 hours from now, the ridge to the north of Stan will begin to break down, and it won't get to Mexico but might even start drifting back. I hope this helps.

[skysummit]

I am now confused as all hell. I just finished watching "Master and Commander", come back online, and find this wierd discussion from the NHC. Anyone care to give me a quick run through of what they're talking about?

I'll try: There's a ridge to the north and west of Stan that is pushing it west and then southwest into Mexico. If the low east of the Bahamas enters the Gulf late tomorrow night and early Tuesday morning and develops quickly as the global models are predicting (perhaps into Tammy or some subtropical beast), in 48-72 hours from now, the ridge to the north of Stan will begin to break down, and it won't get to Mexico but might even start drifting back. I hope this helps.

Wow...that's amazing. So we could actually have 2 cyclones in the GOM at the same time? I guess that's what the GFDL is doing with Stan? ...stalling him in the BOC and drifting him back?

[Brent]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Gulf system might be Vince. The thing east of the Bahamas may be Tammy... unless that's the same system.

*head spinning*

[skysummit]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Gulf system might be Vince. The thing east of the Bahamas may be Tammy... unless that's the same system.

*head spinning*

No crap! What the hell is that blow up?

[Brent]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Gulf system might be Vince. The thing east of the Bahamas may be Tammy... unless that's the same system.

*head spinning*

No crap! What the hell is that blow up?

and now I see another blowup east of the Windward Islands.

Looks like Alpha might be arriving soon.

[vaffie]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Gulf system might be Vince. The thing east of the Bahamas may be Tammy... unless that's the same system.

*head spinning*

No crap! What the hell is that blow up?

and now I see another blowup east of the Windward Islands.

Looks like Alpha might be arriving soon.

It could get MESSY!!! Perhaps this is the MJO kicking into full gear? Remember that one time in late 1995 when there were like four hurricanes in a line east of the Windwards all interacting with each other? Well, this time, they might all be in the wee Gulf!!! What I'm worried about is that if "Tammy" is supposed to slow Stan's westward movement, what's to stop stan from increasing "TAMMY"'s westward movement, so that it doesn't stop south of Louisiana but just keeps on going...

[vaffie]

Can I ask you guys' opinion: Do you think Stan has slowed down the last few hours? At the speed it was going earlier today, I estimated it would be into the Gulf by 7 pm CDT. It's 11 pm now, and it still looks like it has another two or three hours to go. It must be moving at less than 8mph now. If this continues, the stall idea might be much more likely by morning.

[THead]

Ok, so we got Stan down in the SW gom, then another storm forming out of the trough coming down from the west, all eventually moving east or NE.........and then we got this troughy/wave mess east of the Bahamas and windward islands heading west......hmmm.....they going to meet up somewhere and get all perfect stormy?! Or just tear each other apart and just dump tons of rain? Going to be an interesting week or so.

[fasterdisaster]

Is Stan offshore yet?

[vaffie]

Yeah, look at the 18Z GFS and the GFDL loops!!! My interpretation is the following. It's hard to tell though because neither models have very clearly defined lows:

1) The GFS model has "Tammy" splitting off into two--the first getting close to Texas and then heading south and stalling in the Bay of Campeche while the other re-crossing Florida early on and moving up the Eastern Seaboard, while at the same time Stan heads northeast towards Florida--essentially trading partners with Tammy!

2) The GFDL has Stan making landfall in Mexico and evolving into two tropical systems, the first forming out of it on the Pacific side going up to the Baja, while it's other "child" heads northeast towards Florida while "Tammy" approaches close to the Texas coast and then sinks south into the Bay!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Crazy, huh!

[vaffie]

Is Stan offshore yet?

I don't think so--the last satellite picture had it about 20-25 miles inland, and it looks like it has slowed down. And now the satellite pictures will be off for the eclipse for three hours, so we won't know until later when it emerges.

[THead]

Yeah, look at the 18Z GFS and the GFDL loops!!! My interpretation is the following. It's hard to tell though because neither models have very clearly defined lows:

1) The GFS model has "Tammy" splitting off into two--the first getting close to Texas and then heading south and stalling in the Bay of Campeche while the other re-crossing Florida early on and moving up the Eastern Seaboard, while at the same time Stan heads northeast towards Florida--essentially trading partners with Tammy!

2) The GFDL has Stan making landfall in Mexico and evolving into two tropical systems, the first forming out of it on the Pacific side going up to the Baja, while it's other "child" heads northeast towards Florida while "Tammy" approaches close to the Texas coast and then sinks south into the Bay!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Crazy, huh!

Yeah, it sure is crazy! Looks like the GFDL does move the wave east of the bahamas over NE Fla. coast, (appears to be weak), while the GFS doesn't really show anything developing from that wave. Also the GFS looks like it has "Tammy" just materialize right on the Fla. east coast, approx around Daytona at 120 hours. The good news with both of these models, is that nothing appears to be very strong, compared to what we've been seeing this season.

[SamSagnella]

Is Stan offshore yet?

I don't think so--the last satellite picture had it about 20-25 miles inland, and it looks like it has slowed down. And now the satellite pictures will be off for the eclipse for three hours, so we won't know until later when it emerges.

The 03z NHC advisory position had it less than 10 miles from the coast.

[Starburst]

I am so so so confused there are too many blobbies and future blobbies lurking about.

[apocalypt-flyer]

*No official prediction*

I am still rather sure that Stan will make Landfall at Mexico's coast, however I fear that it might strengthen more drastically than the NHC anticipates. 30° SSTs, very low vertical shear. It might just as well be a strong Cat.2 finsead of that 'just Hurricane strength' prediction they make. I don't say it will explode but above-normal strengthening is not out of question.