Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Nimbus]

Pressure is down to 1003 MB at Merida, Stan sure did not lose any strength coming across the Yucatan.

I'm a little concerned about the stall scenario over the warm waters.

[Anthysteg]

it's clear the center reformed and it's moving way more northerly then the NHC track anticipated.


How big of an impact will this make? Is it possibly for the system to escape the ridging the farther North it treks?

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno. The 18Z GFS continues to push Stan westwards and perhaps even slightly WSW into Mexico.

<RICKY>

[KatDaddy]

Spinning over the Yucatan Westward toward the BOC. The LLC over the Yucatan is just to strong to let anything develop further north at this point.
Also starting see Stan begin to wrap much more as fast developing squalls to the NW are easily seen on VIS. Almost looks like a broad low pressure with individual LLCs rotating. Still very hard to believe this will go W and WSW into Mexico with the approaching trough and front by Thursday along the NW GOM. Perhaps the Pro Mets can enlighten us. A consistent strong ridge this time of year does not occur much as the Westerlies kick in.

[JTD]

I dunno. The 18Z GFS continues to push Stan westwards and perhaps even slightly WSW into Mexico.

<RICKY>

Dude, it's the GFS so take it with a grain of salt but yes I still buy the Mexico landfall scenario as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno. The 18Z GFS continues to push Stan westwards and perhaps even slightly WSW into Mexico.

<RICKY>

Dude, it's the GFS so take it with a grain of salt but yes I still buy the Mexico landfall scenario as well.

I wish I could feel the same way but its not only the GFS that shows that. Others such as the GFDL, UKMET, CMC also show a very similar setup. And besides the GFS cant be that bad. Cause if it is, why are so many other models dependant on output from the GFS. Im gonna wait for the 18Z GFDL to come out though. I think it should be out in a few more minutes or so. Ill post it right when it comes to graphic.

<RICKY>

[Anthysteg]

It's hard not to put trust in the models...especially the GFDL.



But none of the global models truly called Rita. It was dumb luck that their last minute model runs managed to make the score. But then again the GFDL nailed Katrina.


But even at one point I believe it faltered and flucuated into the 'handle.


Hurricanes make up their own minds, not models. I've learned to live with that code I think lol.

[garo678]

Why is this thread so quiet?

Anyway, it looks like Stan's center has finished reforming north.

Hi everyone!! Here in Merida Yucatan..

29 C
Rel Hum 91%
Press 1000 mB

Nonstop rain, 60 km/h gusts...and this building is made mostly of glass...
we will see weather conditions late in the night..

saludos a todos!!

[Anthysteg]

Why is this thread so quiet?

Anyway, it looks like Stan's center has finished reforming north.

Hi everyone!! Here in Merida Yucatan..

29 C
Rel Hum 91%
Press 1000 mB

Nonstop rain, 60 km/h gusts...and this building is made mostly of glass...
we will see weather conditions late in the night..

saludos a todos!!

Stay safe there man, I envy you lol.

[vaffie]

Why is this thread so quiet?

Anyway, it looks like Stan's center has finished reforming north.

Hi everyone!! Here in Merida Yucatan..

29 C
Rel Hum 91%
Press 1000 mB

Nonstop rain, 60 km/h gusts...and this building is made mostly of glass...
we will see weather conditions late in the night..

saludos a todos!!

That's amazing! The pressure has fallen at least four millibars since landfall!

[vaffie]

GFDL 18Z run--it goes into Mexico a few miles and then starts drifting northeast--in the middle of the Bay of Campeche still Thursday night.



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM STAN 20L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.3 88.9 295./ 8.9
6 20.4 89.8 274./ 8.5
12 20.6 90.9 281./10.1
18 20.8 91.8 284./ 8.3
24 20.8 92.7 271./ 8.9
30 20.3 93.5 233./ 8.8
36 20.0 94.2 250./ 8.0
42 19.9 95.2 265./ 9.0
48 19.4 95.9 237./ 8.3
54 18.8 96.1 196./ 6.2
60 18.6 95.7 112./ 4.6
66 18.7 95.4 70./ 2.2
72 18.9 95.4 0./ 2.0
78 18.9 95.3 103./ 1.3
84 19.0 95.2 36./ .9
90 19.1 95.2 6./ 1.8
96 19.3 95.2 20./ 1.2
102 19.2 94.9 109./ 2.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 102 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[WeatherEmperor]

very interesting GFDL run tonight.

<RICKY>

[fasterdisaster]

Is Stan strengthening over land?

The pressure's at 1000 mb for you garos, that means the pressure in Stan is deepening?!

[garo678]

Is Stan strengthening over land?

The pressure's at 1000 mb for you garos, that means the pressure in Stan is deepening?!

I don't know if it's deepening, the barometer fall from 1004 to 1000 in 5 hours or so...think this is normal because the storm is approaching:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

but, this was very fast....

I am enjoying a very heavy horizontal rain show thru this window..!!

hope this links be useful for you...

[wxmann_91]

Thanks for providing us up-to-date info garo678.

[WindRunner]

Unfortunately, we must also consider the possibility that that barometer is slightly inaccurate, unless garo is reporting from a much more precise station than I suspect. Not trying to discount his report or put him/her down, but we must consider the fact.

[ROCK]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Look at the satellite. Find the location where the clouds are rotating around. LOL It does look like crap, but it does also seem to be moving more NW and a little faster though.

Based on the 1 pm NHC center estimate of 20.2, 88.7, it has been traveling for the last three hours at 304 degrees, or about 14 degrees more north than it had been and also that much more than was predicted. If this continued it would exit the Yucatan at 20.1, 90.1 rather than 20.6, 90.5, or about 45 miles northeast of predicted--at about 7-8 pm EDT. We will see where it emerges.

reminds me of Cindy of this year. Stan is forecasted westward where as Cindy ended up in the FL panhandle.

You have your storms mixed up a little. Cindy came in Southeast La....almost at hurricane strength.

you are correct......to many storms this year for me to remember every landfall.......

[vaffie]

Unfortunately, we must also consider the possibility that that barometer is slightly inaccurate, unless garo is reporting from a much more precise station than I suspect. Not trying to discount his report or put him/her down, but we must consider the fact.

Actually, I think it's quite reasonable. The weather station in Merida reported 1003 mb just now and was at 1002 an hour ago, and we all know that between 4 pm and 10 pm because of atmospheric warming, the pressure drops two or three mb. So it doesn't necessarily mean that Stan strengthened, but it certainly didn't weaken.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMD.html

[TS Zack]

Vaffie thats from normal pressures.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Did anyone just get this Opal II gut punch?