East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#101 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:08 pm

I think we'll have an invest by later tonight or early tomorrow.

That there is some serious convection.
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#102 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:10 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Correct me if I am wrong, the area to watch is the blob in
the middle just north of Puerto Rico.

The area to its southeast could merge with it. Signs of this
merging are apparent in a serious blow-up of convection.

Image


I agree with you. That area looks like the most suspect area but watch tomorrow morning I turn out to be wrong.

<RICKY>
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CHRISTY

#103 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:10 pm

Image
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#104 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:13 pm

Christy,

What computer model is that you just posted?

<RICKY>
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Rainband

#105 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:14 pm

eta
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#106 Postby cinlfla » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:16 pm

eta



Rainband is that a reliable model? its looks like its 48 hours out.
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Rainband

#107 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:17 pm

No, as far as I know...not for Tropical systems.
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#108 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:18 pm

Rainband wrote:No, as far as I know...not for Tropical systems.


Is the MM5FSU a good model to use as well?

<RICKY>
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CHRISTY

#109 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:21 pm

actually these are 2 of a many models that show some type of developement with this sytem near the bahamas right now!Image
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#110 Postby cinlfla » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:23 pm

Hey Christy, which model is this that you've posted? I'm having a hrd time reading the top. :wink:
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#111 Postby RattleMan » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:26 pm

cinlfla wrote:Hey Christy, which model is this that you've posted? I'm having a hrd time reading the top. :wink:


Top left says: Precip (in) MSLP (mb) 1000-500 Thick (m)
Top right says: 48 hour ETA48 valid 18Z Tue 4 OCT 5

So I guess it's another ETA.
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#112 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:26 pm

Its the ETA model. I finally was able to read it after a megazoom in on the image. Its not a very good model at all with the tropics so dont pay too much attention to it.

<RICKY>
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#113 Postby cinlfla » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:27 pm

LOL, man my eyes must be really bad ok so I'm mostley looking at the eta model. I would need to see more consistancy with other models to be concerned. :wink:
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#114 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:30 pm

aren't we just looking at a small TS at the most?
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#115 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:31 pm

tracyswfla wrote:aren't we just looking at a small TS at the most?


Perhaps according to that particular model.

<RICKY>
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Anthysteg

heh...

#116 Postby Anthysteg » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:32 pm

tracyswfla wrote:aren't we just looking at a small TS at the most?



That's anything but small lol.


But honestly, once it gets into the gulf everything changes. The scenario that is supposed to push it back thru Florida is a mere blah prediction 5 days out.

Then again it could stall out in the gulf and could become a monster.
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CHRISTY

#117 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:34 pm

actually the 2 blobs seem to merging together so i think maybe tomorrow we may have an invest.
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Re: heh...

#118 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:35 pm

Anthysteg wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:aren't we just looking at a small TS at the most?



That's anything but small lol.


But honestly, once it gets into the gulf everything changes. The scenario that is supposed to push it back thru Florida is a mere blah prediction 5 days out.

Then again it could stall out in the gulf and could become a monster.


I should have clarified and said small in strength.
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#119 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:35 pm

Image

Image

This is the 18z GFS which shows a fairly strong low (1004 mbs) near the Florida Penninsula.The question is will it be a pure tropical system or a hybrid one.
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krysof

#120 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 02, 2005 6:37 pm

and what's that low pressure off the carolinas
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