Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center seems to be near 21 north/89.5. Moving to the northwest. A surface report to the west of the center, makes this hold more water.

[thermos]

Screw Stan. Let's get this cold front through and shut down the gulf for the rest of the season. Anyone with me?

I'm with you on the cold front. Bring on Fall and Winter!

[WeatherEmperor]

Screw Stan. Let's get this cold front through and shut down the gulf for the rest of the season. Anyone with me?

I'm with you on the cold front. Bring on Fall and Winter!

bring on the Fall but not the Winter. I hate the cold

<RICKY>

[rockyman]

After watching the IR4 and visible loops, this is my opinion about what's happened to the centers:

[WeatherEmperor]

nice observation Rockyman. We will see what the NHC says at the 5pm advisory.

<RICKY>

[Hurricanehink]

After watching the IR4 and visible loops, this is my opinion about what's happened to the centers:

Cindy part 2?

[vaffie]

Center seems to be near 21 north/89.5. Moving to the northwest. A surface report to the west of the center, makes this hold more water.

Again: THIS IS JUST ONE OF MY MADE-UP SCENARIOS:

I agree, but not that far west--that would be over Merida--I think it must be about 20.9/89.0--just under 40 miles east of your position, but we're splitting hairs, it doesn't really matter. It's a lot more north than they thought it would be and moving at a higher angle too--I agree--even though the models all moved north in their last run--none of them have landfall in Mexico below 20.5N now, their initialization points are still south and it will take another run before the present further north position and north direction is factored in, by then it could be even farther north, and the models will still be clueless. So, I think we're going to have a continued slow progression of forecasted landfalls up the coast in each run, until we have one model say, "no, wait, hang on, we're taking this north this time"--at that point, there will be a lot of divergence, and gradually they will either move back south again or all have northerly tracks. Meanwhile it will just be happily over warm water and building. What a horrible possible scenario for northern Mexico, Texas, and western Louisiana coastlines--little warning time, everyone will be out to lunch thinking it's a weak storm and will still hit far south of them until they find out they're under a hurricane watch, models that are too old to matter, and a building, bad storm.

[Brent]

bring on the Fall but not the Winter. I hate the cold

Sorry it doesn't get cold in South Florida.

[rockyman]

4pm: 20.7/89.4

[WeatherEmperor]

bring on the Fall but not the Winter. I hate the cold

Sorry it doesn't get cold in South Florida.

yeah it does(depending on what you believe is cold). Temps in the 50's and 60's are considered cold for most heat spoiled south floridians. Some times Low temps fall into the 40's but not for long though.

<RICKY>

[vaffie]

As you can see from this Webpage on the conditions at Merida 1hr 45 minutes ago, which is due west of our estimated satellite position, they were experiencing 6 mph wind from the north (10 degrees). That would support our estimate. Had the center been farther south, they would be experiencing a 40-50 degree wind. We will have to wait for the next update from them.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMD.html

[Anthysteg]

Not a significant change I guess?

[thermos]

omg yes.


Stan the Man! Come and get me!

Stan could also be Flat Stanley. Flat Stanley even has White House connections: http://www.flatstanley.com/whitehouse/whitehouse.htm

[Anthysteg]

GOM imagery shows the cloud patterns off the Lousiana coast are moving to the east if this "ridging" will be occuring that shouldn't be happening.


Still skeptic about this "ridging" thing.

[JTD]

Even if somehow it does end up hitting the U.S., it will be a sheared apart mess at best. See 11 P.M. NHC discussion from last night:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE
DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

[thermos]

How does Stan get into Mexico? I guess it beats the cold front there to answer my own Q.

[WeatherEmperor]

How does Stan get into Mexico? I guess it beats the cold front there to answer my own Q.

Well it gets to Mexico courtesy of a ridge building westward just to its north as per the 5pm NHC discussion.

<RICKY>

[thermos]

How does Stan get into Mexico? I guess it beats the cold front there to answer my own Q.

Well it gets to Mexico courtesy of a ridge building westward just to its north as per the 5pm NHC discussion.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I see. I did not do the assigned reading.

[WeatherEmperor]

How does Stan get into Mexico? I guess it beats the cold front there to answer my own Q.

Well it gets to Mexico courtesy of a ridge building westward just to its north as per the 5pm NHC discussion.

<RICKY>

Thanks. I see. I did not do the assigned reading.

Do your homework

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

Why is this thread so quiet?

Anyway, it looks like Stan's center has finished reforming north.