East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

[artist]

basically it is talking about the tropical wave out there and that it should hit around Monday night and what it might do.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thats much better. How do some of the models bring that system near the Bahamas into south florida if that discussion also mentions a deep cold front being in the same general area late in the forecast period?

<RICKY>

[artist]

it is supposed to move across thyestate and then re-enter thru the gulf - guess they don't feel the cold front will make it down into central FL?

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno for sure. Its kinda hard to believe that its gonna be near south florida Monday night considering today is Sunday and by how far out it still is. It would have to be moving at like 20-25mph to get here by Monday night. I dunno maybe Im just confusing myself more.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 022107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM STAN...LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[CHRISTY]

how does system the near the bahamas look today compared toyesterday? opinions!

[Anthysteg]

how does system the near the bahamas look today compared toyesterday? opinions!

Why do you have to ask for opinions every single post? lol.




It doesn't look good AT ALL. Just a broad disorganized tropical wave. Nothing significant is gonna happen overnight and development will be a SLOW SLOW process.


I know you want this storm, trust me IT SHOWS. But nothing has changed at all.

[MiamiensisWx]

how does system the near the bahamas look today compared toyesterday? opinions!

I think it looks better today. It has thicker and more organized convection, although the system is still very disorganized and is only a little better than yesterday.

[WeatherEmperor]

looks disorganized much like yesterday. upper level winds are still unfavorable.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

looks disorganized much like yesterday. upper level winds are still unfavorable.

<RICKY>

Agreed... 30KT to 40KT shear is still over Florida and the Bahamas.

Interesting how life works... although the Bahamas have been a hotbed of activity this year, they have also been among the most extremely unfavorable areas for development at times, other than other areas of the Atlantic and Caribbean. In the past, the Bahamas have been very unfavorable at times as well. Does not make any difference, though... conditions can be unfavorable anywhere and at any time.

[tracyswfla]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005




.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A WET
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
EAST WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC TROP WAVE. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS OVER THE
GULF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE IF ANY SFC
CLOSED LOWS FORM. A LONGWAVE TROF IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND PICK UP THE TROF OVER THE GULF...
WITH A SFC FRONT THEN STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL FL OVER THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC FEATURES...THIS PATTERN OVERALL STRONGLY
SUGGESTS THAT ON AT LEAST TWO DAYS LATER NEXT WEEK ABUNDANT RAINS
WILL FALL OVER PART OR ALL OF THE SUNCOAST.

BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THESE TRENDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD CHANCES AT 50/50 DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG THE CHANNELLED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENTS AT HAND.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ANYTIME YOU HAVE VERY LOW SYNOPTIC
SURFACE PRESSURES (IN THIS CASE NEAR 1000 MB) OVER THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN GULF IN EARLY OCTOBER. SUCH DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WOULD
FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED

[CHRISTY]

national hurricane says conditions could become more favorable in the next few days, my question is will that be close to the bahamas?

[MiamiensisWx]

national hurricane says conditions could become more favorable in the next few days, my question is will that be close to the bahamas?

Yep... they expect gradually more favorable conditions around and in the Bahamas and around Florida, especially southern Florida and the Florida Keys.

[CHRISTY]

so wat you think does it has a chance maybe to develope into a tropicalstorm?

[MiamiensisWx]

so wat you think does it has a chance maybe to develope into a tropicalstorm?

It is possible, but I think it will strengthen only very slowly unless shear decreases dramatically, allowing much more intensification.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest infra-red imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Here is the latest visible imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

[HurricaneGirl]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radloop.master.pl?Florida
A strange day here today. Many scattered, baby stormlettes and sunshowers.

[Rainband]

It Means at the very least, a LOT of rain for Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Correct me if I am wrong, the area to watch is the blob in
the middle just north of Puerto Rico.

The area to its southeast could merge with it. Signs of this
merging are apparent in a serious blow-up of convection.

[Rainband]

going to be interesting to watch in the days to come.