Stan,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ROCK]

Very hard to pin point the center over land at the moment but it looks to be farther North than the latest forecast point. In fact, Stan looks like it might miss the next one to the north as well if indeed I am seeing the correct center. Stan also seems to moving rather quickly now and should be over water this evening or late tonight.

Just chiming in with my two cents.

[vaffie]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Look at the satellite. Find the location where the clouds are rotating around. LOL It does look like crap, but it does also seem to be moving more NW and a little faster though.

Based on the 1 pm NHC center estimate of 20.2, 88.7, it has been traveling for the last three hours at 304 degrees, or about 14 degrees more north than it had been and also that much more than was predicted. If this continued it would exit the Yucatan at 21.1, 90.1 rather than 20.6, 90.5, or about 45 miles northeast of predicted--at about 7-8 pm EDT. We will see where it emerges.

[ROCK]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Look at the satellite. Find the location where the clouds are rotating around. LOL It does look like crap, but it does also seem to be moving more NW and a little faster though.

Based on the 1 pm NHC center estimate of 20.2, 88.7, it has been traveling for the last three hours at 304 degrees, or about 14 degrees more north than it had been and also that much more than was predicted. If this continued it would exit the Yucatan at 20.1, 90.1 rather than 20.6, 90.5, or about 45 miles northeast of predicted--at about 7-8 pm EDT. We will see where it emerges.

reminds me of Cindy of this year. Stan is forecasted westward where as Cindy ended up in the FL panhandle.

[cinlfla]

Has anyone seen the 5 day forecast cone, why is it so small? Sort of weird looking.... OOPS Wrong storm.

[skysummit]

LOL how can you tell where the center is.. its just disorganized as crap..

Look at the satellite. Find the location where the clouds are rotating around. LOL It does look like crap, but it does also seem to be moving more NW and a little faster though.

Based on the 1 pm NHC center estimate of 20.2, 88.7, it has been traveling for the last three hours at 304 degrees, or about 14 degrees more north than it had been and also that much more than was predicted. If this continued it would exit the Yucatan at 20.1, 90.1 rather than 20.6, 90.5, or about 45 miles northeast of predicted--at about 7-8 pm EDT. We will see where it emerges.

reminds me of Cindy of this year. Stan is forecasted westward where as Cindy ended up in the FL panhandle.

You have your storms mixed up a little. Cindy came in Southeast La....almost at hurricane strength.

[canetracker]

Cindy ended up in Louisiana. But this does remind me of Cindy.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM STAN (AL202005) ON 20051002 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051002 1800 051003 0600 051003 1800 051004 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.4N 88.9W 20.9N 90.8W 21.2N 92.8W 21.3N 94.8W
BAMM 20.4N 88.9W 21.1N 90.9W 21.5N 92.9W 21.6N 95.0W
A98E 20.4N 88.9W 21.1N 90.8W 21.6N 92.6W 21.9N 94.7W
LBAR 20.4N 88.9W 21.0N 91.0W 22.0N 93.5W 23.0N 96.1W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051004 1800 051005 1800 051006 1800 051007 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 97.1W 20.8N 102.1W 21.1N 106.5W 21.4N 109.4W
BAMM 21.2N 97.2W 20.6N 102.1W 20.6N 106.3W 20.9N 108.5W
A98E 22.0N 97.1W 22.7N 101.6W 23.6N 105.5W 24.9N 107.4W
LBAR 24.1N 98.6W 26.1N 102.2W 27.8N 103.7W 29.0N 102.3W
SHIP 65KTS 82KTS 96KTS 101KTS
DSHP 63KTS 43KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.4N LONCUR = 88.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.1N LONM24 = 86.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Two things stand out from this 18:00z run.First they mantain it as a tropical storm and second it's moving 295 faster at 9 kts.

[WeatherEmperor]

So that means it will re-emerge faster then first thought.

<RICKY>

[Stratosphere747]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


Notice the flow in the BOC..Could be nudging it just a bit more to the north.

[wxmann_91]

It if doesn't make landfall in Mexico fast, then it could become a real problem - note the SHIPS at 120 hr.

[rockyman]

The system has moved north of track while over the Yucatan (notice the red "official forecast" line and the "xtrap" dotted line)...but the models insist that the storm will go back to a more westward heading right away...

I've heard comparisons to Cindy...so I went back and checked the Cindy archives...it appears that Cindy was originally forecast to hit west of Galveston...and actually came in around New Orleans...at no point was it ever officially forecasted to go into old Mexico...but some of the models did point toward old Mexico at the very beginning...Here is the link to the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/CINDY.shtml?

[PTrackerLA]

Screw Stan. Let's get this cold front through and shut down the gulf for the rest of the season. Anyone with me?

[vaffie]

It almost looks like on visible that a new center is taking over to the north at about 20.8, 88.8.

[skysummit]

It almost looks like on visible that a new center is taking over to the north at about 20.8, 88.8.

Is it possible to form a new center while over land?

[rockyman]

It almost looks like on visible that a new center is taking over to the north at about 20.8, 88.8.

I noticed that, too...it does have a little deja vu from Cindy...which ended up on the north coast of the Yucatan (instead of west coast) much earlier than anticipated.

[vaffie]

It almost looks like on visible that a new center is taking over to the north at about 20.8, 88.8.

Is it possible to form a new center while over land?

Everything can at any time form a new center, especially weaker systems that are having trouble with shear, land interaction, do not have clear centers or have convection firing away from tehm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The satellite shows that it may of turned to the northwest. In is moving faster then earlier this morning. It also believe it or not has become some what tighter. We will see when it moves over the Gulf durning the next 12 hours.

[vaffie]

Hey guys, I want to propose a somewhat crazy-sounding Houston-based scenario to you guys and have you challenge it as utter nonsense. I don't actually think this will happen--it's a really far out idea, but think about it. Personally the stall in the Bay of Campeche seems far more likely, but here it is.

Suppose it's new center is forming to the north, and it is moving northwest far more rapidly than it was, meanwhile the NHC continues to track for a few more hours its weaker older center. As the new center exits into the Gulf in a matter of two or three hours, propagated more north by the old center too, it strengthens rapidly because it's over the water again, thus completely killing and taking over from the old center. It then continues to the northwest, slowing down some and turning to the westnorthwest, but moving more north than predicted because of it's strength and also it's size--you've got to admit that it could be a very big storm--look how it's outflow covered half the Caribbean--tomorrow is a Cat 1 hurricane--whereas none of the global models even make it a hurricane ever--SHIPS is just a strength predictor, it does not track, and also because the high to it's northeast is breaking down because of a storm east of Florida that is strengthening faster than predicted, and the high to it's west fails to form as south as it was supposed to because the developing low in the Gulf of Tihuanapec (sp?) is taking up the space it would have and pushing Stan further north via it's circulation. It therefore approaches Tampico, Mexico, and starts getting tugged at by the approaching cold front and moving fast north as a major, making landfall in the central to upper Texas coast. Not a single model or forecaster I've seen predicts such a scenario--it's not even in the NHC's margin of error, which is why it's kind of crazy, so beat it up please.

[susan]

How about I just beat you up for even suggesting that?? ....Stan is not Houston's man...I hope...

[rockyman]

Just my opinion...Wow! The center continues to merge to the north and is now very close to the coast...the "old center" appears to have lifted from the surface and is swirling off to the west...Is this possible? What, if anything, does this mean for future track?