East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

[bvigal]

I know, I was saying she was only "wearing", she was on my last nerve a few days ago...

Oh, yeah I get it!! ur so right!

She posted 5 threads here in one night on one topic, and continues to sound hysterical about 'something' hitting Florida, though I bet there is no real concern there, just a desire to "stir up". I PM'd her a friendly explanation of how it might be construed as trolling, which brought no response and only more of the same. That's removed any doubts I had.

[Hurricanehink]

It's not bad right now. Let's hope it won't be another Rita or Katrina... I'm hoping for a Nate. Hurricane, but a fish storm.

[Rainband]

Everyone needs to calm down a bit. There is no place for rudeness on S2K.

[Rainband]

I know, I was saying she was only "wearing", she was on my last nerve a few days ago...

Oh, yeah I get it!! ur so right!

She posted 5 threads here in one night on one topic, and continues to sound hysterical about 'something' hitting Florida, though I bet there is no real concern there, just a desire to "stir up". I PM'd her a friendly explanation of how it might be construed as trolling, which brought no response and only more of the same. That's removed any doubts I had.

Well maybe there is reason for concern??
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
WET PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TUT LOW MOVES FROM THE N CARIB INTO
THE E GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC REFLECTION TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. BOTH FEATURES THEN STALL IN THE
EASTERN GULF THRU MID WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WETTER EASTERN
SIDE OF WAVE WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DIURNAL SCT
POPS. TROUGHINESS TO SET UP AND DEEPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS EXPECTED
TO PUSH TROPICAL FEATURES BACK OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE WEEK INTO SAT AGAIN KEEPING POPS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DAYTIME TEMPS TO HOLD
NEAR CLIMO WITH OVERNIGHT MIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

[bvigal]

Sorry Rainband!! I was trying my level best to be factual, without sounding rude...

And, I didn't mean no one should be concerned about Florida. I meant I didn't believe the poster was REALLY upset.

Does any condition justify one person posting 5 separate threads (not posts - threads) on the same topic within a short time frame, even after a moderator reminded her there were already threads on the same topic?

i.e. one thread actually said a model was showing TD19 (now dissipated at 37W) hitting Florida. After the total error of this was pointed out by several members (and ignored, I might add), it was not changed. Instead, additional new threads were begun.

[Rainband]

Sorry Rainband!! I was trying my level best to be factual, without sounding rude...

Does any condition justify one person posting 5 separate threads (not posts - threads) on the same topic within a short time frame, even after a moderator reminded her there were already threads on the same topic?

Some people do it because they are nervous. Some do it because, even after all we have seen this year, they still want storms. This is a Storm message board and we will continue to get both types

[hurricanedude]

notice its only the new members acting like jerks...no offencw to our good "new " members....I have noticed the old timers are just having to sit in and watch the new comers ruin this site

[Anthysteg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Not looking great anymore. At first we were hoping for convection to give it a running shot but now what? I see alot of activity but it's hard to make out a center.


Judging from IF imagery I'd say convection isn't even wrapped in the center yet. No need to get all worked up about a system with no organization.


What we need to watch out for is a Stan scenario. If the convection pulls together overnight we could have our next invest on this baby as early as tomorrow.

[bvigal]

SJU Radar indicates areas in Virgin Gorda have received 3.5-4" of rain since midnight. This is significant rainfall, and very unusual for us. Probably a lot of rocks down on the roads.

Surface map has this trough drawn on it. This WAS a ULL at about 20N 60W which has dominated our weather for several days (at least 5). But the merging with high-latitude weak wave or whatever has converted it to low level trough has now brought us little or no visibility, plenty of lightning and rain, and a pilot at 10:45 this morning managed to spot a waterspout:

WHCA52 TJSJ 021449
SMWSJU
AMZ710-021615-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0034.051002T1445Z-051002T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 AM AST SUN OCT 2 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE...ATLANTIC WATERS FROM PUNTA
BORINQUEN TO ARECIBO AND OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES..

* UNTIL 1215 PM AST

* AT 1043 AM AST...A PILOT REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM... PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF BORINQUEN. THE WATERSPOUT WAS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

* THIS WATERSPOUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE MANY HAZARDS TO MARINE SAFETY. STRONG WINDS... ROUGH SEAS...LIGHTNING AND LOW VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN CAN MAKE BOAT HANDLING VERY DIFFICULT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF WATERSPOUTS. IF A WATERSPOUT APPROACHES YOUR BOAT..STEER PERPENDICULAR TO IT AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

LAT...LON 1883 6675 1850 6670 1853 6706 1859 6743 1883 6739

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Long range radar loop

Really very wet in the USVI and the BVI today.I hope that nothing forms in our backyard with all of this.Here in Puerto Rico we haved seen scattered showers during the morning over the eastern part of the island.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Convection increasing on color-enhanced infrared:

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! What's going ON out there? Many stormlettes, I see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

:eek: Holy Crap!! What's going ON out there? Many stormlettes, I see.

Yes. It seems a lot more like mid to late August than early October
in the tropical Atlantic. Looks like a very wild ride coming up.
Like Summer in Florida-
Especially with temperature highs hitting 95 yesterday in my back
yard *in the shade*.

[Rainband]

notice its only the new members acting like jerks...no offencw to our good "new " members....I have noticed the old timers are just having to sit in and watch the new comers ruin this site

I can assure you...NO ONE will ruin this site

[Rainband]

Sorry Rainband!! I was trying my level best to be factual, without sounding rude...

And, I didn't mean no one should be concerned about Florida. I meant I didn't believe the poster was REALLY upset.

Does any condition justify one person posting 5 separate threads (not posts - threads) on the same topic within a short time frame, even after a moderator reminded her there were already threads on the same topic?

i.e. one thread actually said a model was showing TD19 (now dissipated at 37W) hitting Florida. After the total error of this was pointed out by several members (and ignored, I might add), it was not changed. Instead, additional new threads were begun.

Thank you and I see your point. Another Moderator has now reminded this poster as well.

[arkess7]

:eek: Holy Crap!! What's going ON out there? Many stormlettes, I see.

Yes. It seems a lot more like mid to late August than early October
in the tropical Atlantic. Looks like a very wild ride coming up.
Like Summer in Florida-
Especially with temperature highs hitting 95 yesterday in my back
yard *in the shade*.

I heard that it was 92 up here and i couldnt walk outside without breaking a sweat!!!whew!!! Now its storming like crazy here today!!! And yes it looking very interesting out there in the tropics..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

:eek: Holy Crap!! What's going ON out there? Many stormlettes, I see.

Yes. It seems a lot more like mid to late August than early October
in the tropical Atlantic. Looks like a very wild ride coming up.
Like Summer in Florida-
Especially with temperature highs hitting 95 yesterday in my back
yard *in the shade*.

I heard that it was 92 up here and i couldnt walk outside without breaking a sweat!!!whew!!! Now its storming like crazy here today!!! And yes it looking very interesting out there in the tropics..

Give me your thunderstorms now!!!! It's still hot and dry here right
now. Heat index is 101 right now. GRRRR...
Update: Heat index has risen to 102

[CHRISTY]

my godness i did not mean to upset anybody iam sorry! its been a very stressful hurricane season for me first with katrina in florida then my cousin and my best friend lot there houses in new orleans! so again iam sorry. christy.

[hurricanedude]

no need to appologize, this is a message forum...say what you want when you want...within reason of course, for those who dont like it...well two words for them....and i cant say it here or i would be banned

[mmgray]

Somebody help a novice here. What is the potential concern, The blob over Puerto Rico or the blob to the Northwest of that. Thanks.