gfs sends system into florida!opinions!

[CHRISTY]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

[Recurve]

Isn't that some totally different new Low the model shows generating in the Gulf and recurving into Florida?

[x-y-no]

Not doing anything of the sort. It dissipates TD 19, and what remnant is left is eventually picked up out to sea.

[Windy]

Ditto what was said before. If you don't know how to interpret models, don't post scary-sounding model-interpretation subjects.

[SamSagnella]

I think she meant TD20.

[cajungal]

TD 19 is a fish. And almost all the models have TD 20 going into the Yucatan then Mexico.

[vacanechaser]

However, the 12z shows a system developing and running the east coast and as it pulls out, develops a system near the panhandle and drives it into Florida and off the east coast... I know that far out with the gfs is a bit crazy, but it has had a good idea of something developing all year... when it shows the tropics active, it has gotten so.. Certainly something to watch next week..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tornadochaser86]

all other models take it out to sea
?

[tornadochaser86]

Show Map In Motion How to read this map Severe Weather Outlook National Forecast

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[THead]

Am I seeing that animation right, it goes out through Oct 17th? I hope its wrong, because its showing 2 systems into florida, one in the panhandle area around the 11th, and one through s. fla around the 16th, coming from the gom. Thats super long range, and hopefully totally wrong.

[Cookiely]

According to the NWS Tampa discussion Florida gets a wave (not Stan) crossing Florida into the GOM and a Tut Low from the Carib into the GOM which will then turn back to Florida. Sounds like a lot of rain which we need. Hopefully nothing stronger.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 020700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NE AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM STAN MOVES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
APPROACHES THE EASTERN FL COAST BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALLOW NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS
TO COOL OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES. STILL KEEPING ONLY SCATTERED CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE NAM STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN THE GFS. WILL SEE HOW THIS RESOLVES WITH THE FUTURE RUNS TO SEE
WHERE AND IF WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT LOWER FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S BY
TUESDAY AND LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH THE MOISTURE AND RAIN IN PLACE. MODERATE E/NE WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL
WET PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TUT LOW MOVES FROM THE N CARIB INTO
THE E GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC REFLECTION TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL. BOTH FEATURES THEN STALL IN THE
EASTERN GULF THRU MID WEEK. THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WETTER EASTERN
SIDE OF WAVE WITH UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL DIURNAL SCT
POPS. TROUGHINESS TO SET UP AND DEEPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS EXPECTED
TO PUSH TROPICAL FEATURES BACK OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
LATE WEEK INTO SAT AGAIN KEEPING POPS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DAYTIME TEMPS TO HOLD
NEAR CLIMO WITH OVERNIGHT MIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK. THE CURRENT
SCEC IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK
WITH WINDS AT 15-20KTS...BUT SEAS SLOWER TO RESPOND AND STILL IN THE
3-5FT RANGE. WILL KEEP THE SCEC IN PLACE FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO SEE IF ANYTHING MORE
WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

[bvigal]

I can't believe this inflamatory thread is still here on Sunday morning, and a moderator hasn't intervened by now! Christy, you would do well to change the title (Admin may have to help now) and take out the exclamation mark at the end (unless you wanted to get people worked up). Plenty of people have had enough stress this year, they don't need any more.

Reading some other posts here, let me just make one comment of reassurance: I'm not a pro met, but have now quite a few years of several hours/day during storm season looking at sat, winds, models, etc. And I can tell you one thing - if I spent my hurricane season stressing over every time a model shows a system, ESPECIALLY more than 6 days out, I'd be under 6 feet of dirt by now. In fact, if I'd been given a dollar for every cyclone on a model that never developed, there would be enough $$ to give one heck of snazzy party!!

[kevin mathis]

Has anyone noticed the last 2 runs of the GFDL.... has a cyclone developing on the Yuc and moving N same timeframe as NWS Tampa East Gulf wave stationary..The trof is moving in at 120hr thru Texas. Just thought it'd add some validity to GFDL of NWS Tampa or visa versa..[img][/img]

[Lowpressure]

Clearly not td19. I t appears to be the energy the NHC spoke of yesterday evening that models show developing from the cold front moving into the Gulf early week. If Stan goes stationary, this would be very interesting in deed. Something to watch, especially if Stan does not make Mexican landfall.

[Cookiely]

Possibility of the wave becoming a tropical cyclone after it crosses Florida into the GOM.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 021741
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

...TROPICAL WAVE PROMISING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...BROAD UPPER LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS
INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THESE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING WEST AND
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM. NAM STILL MAKES THIS SYSTEM STRONGER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...BRINGING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH FL
PENINSULA. THE OTHER MODELS BRING A STRONG WAVE ACROSS FL AND THEN
LEAVE GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER MOST OF THE GULF INTO THE LONG TERM.
HAVE BROUGHT POPS UP TO NMRS FOR OUR SRN AND CENTRAL INLAND ZONES
FOR TUE AFTN...IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS SHUD FINALLY GET DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER OUR CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SRN ZONES.

IN THE MEANTIME FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT THE TIGHT EAST TO
WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STICK AROUND AS THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA AND STAN TO OUR SW. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AND WILL TREND THE WINDS UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AND CURRENT POP FORECAST HANDLES THIS FAIRLY
WELL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A WET
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID/UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
EAST WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC TROP WAVE. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS OVER THE
GULF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE IF ANY SFC
CLOSED LOWS FORM. A LONGWAVE TROF IS THEN PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND PICK UP THE TROF OVER THE GULF...
WITH A SFC FRONT THEN STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL FL OVER THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC FEATURES...THIS PATTERN OVERALL STRONGLY
SUGGESTS THAT ON AT LEAST TWO DAYS LATER NEXT WEEK ABUNDANT RAINS
WILL FALL OVER PART OR ALL OF THE SUNCOAST.

BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THESE TRENDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE
CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MORE
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD CHANCES AT 50/50 DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG THE CHANNELLED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADJUST THIS AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENTS AT HAND.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ANYTIME YOU HAVE VERY LOW SYNOPTIC
SURFACE PRESSURES (IN THIS CASE NEAR 1000 MB) OVER THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN GULF IN EARLY OCTOBER. SUCH DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WOULD
FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...APPEARS THE GFS MOS IS NOT ACCOUNTING
FOR SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER GOING ON THE HIGH HEAT
CONTENT (THICKNESSES NEAR 570) AND EASTERLY FLOW IN CONTINUING
HIGHS NEAR 90. RATHER...EXPECT LESS OF A DIURNAL RANGE (10 DEGREES
OR SO) WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS (MID 70S) AND IN GENERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

[Brent]

We already have a thread on this...

[Cookiely]

Sorry Brent I thought this was the thread we were using.

[WeatherEmperor]

Sorry Brent I thought this was the thread we were using.

Apology....not accepted! muhahahaha
just kidding.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

Sorry Brent I thought this was the thread we were using.

It's not your fault...

[MiamiensisWx]

Have any thoughts or notices been posted yet from the National Hurricane Center office in Miami on this system?