Tropical Depression 20,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

didn't the discussion mention there were several circulations and they weren't sure which would become the main one?

[Brent]

didn't the discussion mention there were several circulations and they weren't sure which would become the main one?

Yes... the overall circulation is very broad and there are multiple small circulatons within that. Pretty much the center could reform anywhere.

[vaffie]

I guess the center will be decided tonight then, with the next diurnal convection blowup. Tomorrow, once the center is decided, then we will know what the true heading and speed is, then the models will have something useful to work with, and by then interaction with land will have cleaned it up a bit from the sprawling mess it is to a more compact denser storm. Additionally, the models will have data from the reconaissance planes to use in working out what the atmosphere in the southern Gulf is like and how it's changing. We might get somewhere finally. Yay. All of the models will start working properly and consistently.

[mvtrucking]

[/quote]

I use this site MV..

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html Zoomed in at 100%

Seems like there is almost two centers at times, one east of Belieze and another just to the ESE of Cozumel. Close to the area you mentioned.[/quote]


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks Stratosphere.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 86.7W...OR 85 NM
S OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 02/0000 UTC MOVING WNW 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE CIRCULATION AROUND T.D. 20 CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS
IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN COAST ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
STILL HAS NOT BECOME ALL THAT CONSOLIDATED. NEW TSTMS ACTIVITY
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH MAY GIVE THE SYSTEM THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN TO
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 83W-91W. SOME OF THE HEAVY BANDS
OF CONVECTION ARE NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS CANCUN AND
COZUMEL...AS WELL AS WRN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NW WHERE AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N88W IS PRODUCING SOME SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE

8 PM Discussion about TD20.

[dixiebreeze]

This looks like an interesting path straight to Louisiana through the GOM with very dry air on either side. But perhaps that will change in time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[WeatherEmperor]

This looks like an interesting path straight to Louisiana through the GOM with very dry air on either side. But perhaps that will change in time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

what are you talking about?

<RICKY>

[Anthysteg]

This looks like an interesting path straight to Louisiana through the GOM with very dry air on either side. But perhaps that will change in time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

what are you talking about?

<RICKY>

If I had to make a guess i'd say he thinks it's going here in LA.



A realistic possibility from where i'm sitting.

[cjrciadt]

T numbers going up support a marginal TS.

[wxmann_91]

It looks like it's going to Mexico.

The center has shifted south, according to Derek Ortt, and the models also have shifted south accordingly. I'm not hoping for this to hit anyone, but if it has to go somewhere, I'm glad it's into southern Mexico, it will have less time to strengthen, and perhaps it might not even make it across the Yucatan if it wanders south enough.

[cjrciadt]

[Anthysteg]

It looks like it's going to Mexico.

The center has shifted south, according to Derek Ortt, and the models also have shifted south accordingly. I'm not hoping for this to hit anyone, but if it has to go somewhere, I'm glad it's into southern Mexico, it will have less time to strengthen, and perhaps it might not even make it across the Yucatan if it wanders south enough.

Perhaps but who's to say it won't happen again? Or stall out over the Yucutan?

The NHC doesn't have a good fix on this storm and neither do any of those models.


Don't think for a second the NHC knows what this storm will do. This early in the game it's all speculation and guesswork. Yucutan storms have proven to be quite tricky.


Don't let your guard down.

[jimvb]

Are you afraid that it will do a Carmen?

[wxmann_91]

It looks like it's going to Mexico.

The center has shifted south, according to Derek Ortt, and the models also have shifted south accordingly. I'm not hoping for this to hit anyone, but if it has to go somewhere, I'm glad it's into southern Mexico, it will have less time to strengthen, and perhaps it might not even make it across the Yucatan if it wanders south enough.

Perhaps but who's to say it won't happen again? Or stall out over the Yucutan?

The NHC doesn't have a good fix on this storm and neither do any of those models.


Don't think for a second the NHC knows what this storm will do. This early in the game it's all speculation and guesswork. Yucutan storms have proven to be quite tricky.


Don't let your guard down.

Of course I won't. But unless the center reforms north, the chances are pretty slim. TD 20 going over the heart of the Yucatan (instead of the tip)will weaken it even further, which would mean a more southward track.

The future of this system will depend on whether the center will reform. If it stalls then it will dissipate. Still, everyone living along the Gulf coast should still closely monitor this system.

[Anthysteg]

Are you afraid that it will do a Carmen?

Not afraid of this storm at all. I would rather enjoy a hurricane event here in Louisiana.



It's common sense from my point of view.



Coming from the NHC's mouth the track is based on model attention that forecasts a scenario nearly two days after leaving the Yucutan.


The circulation has been bobbing back and forth for a week now it isn't like this is some new development. In fact, i'm shocked they actually changed the track because of that indefinitely 5 days out.



Can someone say guidance error? The NHC should realize this "make them breathe a sigh of relief and them panic in fear" scenario always go backside on them FIVE DAYS OUT.

[skysummit]

Are you afraid that it will do a Carmen?

Not afraid of this storm at all. I would rather enjoy a hurricane event here in Louisiana.



It's common sense from my point of view.



Coming from the NHC's mouth the track is based on model attention that forecasts a scenario nearly two days after leaving the Yucutan.


The circulation has been bobbing back and forth for a week now it isn't like this is some new development. In fact, i'm shocked they actually changed the track because of that indefinitely 5 days out.



Can someone say guidance error? The NHC should realize this "make them breathe a sigh of relief and them panic in fear" scenario always go backside on them FIVE DAYS OUT.

Where in the hell in La. are you located that you would like to go through a hurricane? You must've never been through one.

[KatDaddy]

No comment. Sky you said it all.

[Anthysteg]

Are you afraid that it will do a Carmen?

Not afraid of this storm at all. I would rather enjoy a hurricane event here in Louisiana.



It's common sense from my point of view.



Coming from the NHC's mouth the track is based on model attention that forecasts a scenario nearly two days after leaving the Yucutan.


The circulation has been bobbing back and forth for a week now it isn't like this is some new development. In fact, i'm shocked they actually changed the track because of that indefinitely 5 days out.



Can someone say guidance error? The NHC should realize this "make them breathe a sigh of relief and them panic in fear" scenario always go backside on them FIVE DAYS OUT.

Where in the hell in La. are you located that you would like to go through a hurricane? You must've never been through one.

I am located just 40 miles outside of New Orleans. I have weather quite a few storms in my day although mostly TS's (I consider Cindy a cane).



And of course I weathered Katrina and surveyed the entire storm.

[Brent]

This looks like an interesting path straight to Louisiana through the GOM with very dry air on either side. But perhaps that will change in time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

Models and the 11pm NHC track are even farther south... even the chances of a South Texas hit are slim now. No way this is going to Louisiana.

[gilbert88]

I don't like what the models are showing. That area has already been hit by three tropical storms, (Bret, Gert and José) with José being the worst. I'd rather have this thing going north of Tampico.