Tropical Depression 19 Advisories=11 AM=Last Advisorie
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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WTNT44 KNHC 010308
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005
AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2227Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF STRONG AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SINCE
THAT TIME SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL THE CASE...BUT IT CANNOT BE
DETERMINED JUST HOW FAR THE CENTER IS FROM THE CONVECTION AT THE
MOMENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 310/2. OTHER THAN THAT...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR 72-96 HR. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD NOGAPS. THE
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 96 HR IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT STOPPING THE
CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR IN
ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAINS THIS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48-72 HR. THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN
EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...AND IF THE DEPRESSION GETS
TOO CLOSE TO THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SHIPS IS
FORECASTING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL IT IS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.3N 33.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W 45 KT
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005
AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2227Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF STRONG AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SINCE
THAT TIME SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL THE CASE...BUT IT CANNOT BE
DETERMINED JUST HOW FAR THE CENTER IS FROM THE CONVECTION AT THE
MOMENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 310/2. OTHER THAN THAT...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR 72-96 HR. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD NOGAPS. THE
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 96 HR IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD
STEER IT MORE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS
YET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT STOPPING THE
CONVECTION THUS FAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR IN
ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAINS THIS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HR. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48-72 HR. THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN
EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL ARE FORECASTING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...AND IF THE DEPRESSION GETS
TOO CLOSE TO THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SHIPS IS
FORECASTING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL IT IS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.3N 33.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.5N 33.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 33.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.2N 34.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.8N 35.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 36.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 36.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W 45 KT
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tornadochaser86
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT44 KNHC 010837
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A
SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR
RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.
THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A
NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK
ENVELOPE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W 40 KT
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A
SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR
RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.
THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A
NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK
ENVELOPE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.0N 35.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 37.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 28.0N 37.0W 40 KT
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN RE-ORGANIZES FARTHER NORTH...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
989
WTNT24 KNHC 011423
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W...INLAND YUCATAN
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W...INLAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W...DISSPATING INLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 85.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN RE-ORGANIZES FARTHER NORTH...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
989
WTNT24 KNHC 011423
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W...INLAND YUCATAN
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W...INLAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W...DISSPATING INLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 85.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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$$
633
WTNT24 KNHC 011433
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 33.7W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 33.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
633
WTNT24 KNHC 011433
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 33.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 33.7W
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 33.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE...
AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-20 IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT
BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
BY 96 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE...
AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND
VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-20 IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT
BY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
BY 96 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.1N 33.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.8N 34.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.4N 35.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 36.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 37.6W 35 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 25.5N 37.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT24 KNHC 012027
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 34.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 34.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
2100Z SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 34.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 34.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...DEPRESSION BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2
WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...1105 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL... BUT IF IT REDEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THEN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.7 N... 34.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...DEPRESSION BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2
WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...1105 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL... BUT IF IT REDEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THEN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.7 N... 34.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
721
WTNT44 KNHC 012112
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE
SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL
LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES
THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE
40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW
WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.7N 34.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
WTNT44 KNHC 012112
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY
EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE
SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS
DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL
LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES
THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE
40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW
WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.7N 34.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Swimdude wrote:Yikes... This really needs to be our next storm... Or the chance of beating 33 goes dooowwwwn. =(
Well, since it is apparent that neither TD 19 nor TD 20 will turn into a TS tonight, the record for the earliest S storm will not be broken (it is currently held by 1933).
The good news is that we have until October 25 to beat the record for the earliest T storm.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148497
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE THE
DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
112
WTNT24 KNHC 020235
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 34.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 665 MILES...1075 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE THE
DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.3 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
112
WTNT24 KNHC 020235
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192005
0300Z SUN OCT 02 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 34.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 34.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THAT WERE NOT IN
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BLENDING THESE DATA PRODUCES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...
ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST
BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS
INDICATE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON THE RIDGING...
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A MUCH SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TURN
THAT THAT CURRENTLY CALLED FOR BY THE GUIDANCE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE SYSTEM SURVIVE? ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 20N WHERE
IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY 26C. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
IN CASE SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OCCURS OR A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST SPINS THE SYSTEM UP. IT THEN CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120
HR. IT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY
NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL...AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED BETWEEN
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THAT WERE NOT IN
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BLENDING THESE DATA PRODUCES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...
ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST
BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS
INDICATE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. BASED ON THE RIDGING...
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A MUCH SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TURN
THAT THAT CURRENTLY CALLED FOR BY THE GUIDANCE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE SYSTEM SURVIVE? ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 20N WHERE
IT IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY 26C. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
IN CASE SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OCCURS OR A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST SPINS THE SYSTEM UP. IT THEN CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120
HR. IT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY
NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL...AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.3N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 16.6N 34.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.2N 35.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 36.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 36.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 36.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z 29.5N 34.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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Coredesat
...Depression remains poorly organized over eastern Atlantic...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was
located near latitude 16.0 north... longitude 34.8 west or about
715 miles...1155 km... west of the Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours... but only a slight increase in the winds could make the
depression a tropical storm.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...16.0 N... 34.8 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was
located near latitude 16.0 north... longitude 34.8 west or about
715 miles...1155 km... west of the Cape Verde Islands.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours... but only a slight increase in the winds could make the
depression a tropical storm.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...16.0 N... 34.8 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
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