99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Website · #1201 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:39 pm

cajungal wrote:What cold front? With a high still reaching 90 degrees here and lows in the 70's does not seem like much of a cold front to me. The 7-day forecast still shows temps to nearly 90 degrees almost every day. I guess it is better than the near 100 degree temps we have been having the week before.

The cold front died when it got here... 59 this morning but 85 this afternoon. It was supposed to be much cooler. Humidity is already coming back too...

BLHutch · #1202 Postby **BLHutch** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:39 pm

KatDaddy wrote: very very rare that an October storm visits the Upper TX Coast

I looked through the NWS Hurricane History for Texas and here is what I found. These are all the hurricanes known to have hit anywhere on the Texas coast in October (and one in November) from 1836 to 1998.

Oct. 2-6, 1837 "Racer's Storm" Middle Texas Coast
Nov. 5, 1839 Galveston
Oct. 5, 1842 Galveston
Oct. 17, 1848 Lower TX Coast
Oct. 2-3, 1867 Brownsville
Sept. 30-Oct. 2, Middle Texas Coast
Oct. 12, 1880, Brownsville
Oct. 12-13, 1886 Galveston
Oct. 16, 1912, Brownsville
Oct. 3-4, 1949 Freeport
Oct. 15-16, 1989 "Jerry" Galveston

That is 11 storms in 162 years with an average of one storm per 14.7 years. (for the entire Texas coast)

I must say that the worst period to live on the Texas coast would have to be the period from 1875 to 1900. We got creamed on a regular basis in those days! :eek:

Anyway, here is the link. It is very interesting reading. There is also a similar site for Louisiana hurricane history too.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm

Brady

perk · #1203 Postby **perk** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:52 pm

I'm gonna cut off the lights on this hurricane season in November.

Anthysteg · #1204 Postby **Anthysteg** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 6:54 pm

I hope this storm does develop cause it looks like it could still impact me cause I so desperately want the DH baby.

#1205 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 8:16 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051001 0000 051001 1200 051002 0000 051002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 84.7W 19.5N 86.1W 20.1N 87.7W 20.8N 89.4W
BAMM 19.0N 84.7W 19.7N 86.2W 20.4N 87.8W 21.2N 89.6W
A98E 19.0N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 20.4N 87.2W 21.7N 88.8W
LBAR 19.0N 84.7W 19.6N 86.4W 20.7N 88.3W 22.1N 90.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051003 0000 051004 0000 051005 0000 051006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 91.0W 22.6N 94.0W 22.6N 97.1W 22.4N 101.1W
BAMM 22.2N 91.2W 23.4N 94.1W 23.7N 97.3W 23.6N 101.1W
A98E 23.2N 90.8W 25.1N 95.4W 26.3N 98.8W 26.1N 101.2W
LBAR 23.6N 92.5W 26.2N 95.8W 27.4N 97.7W 28.7N 100.1W
SHIP 51KTS 66KTS 75KTS 82KTS
DSHP 39KTS 53KTS 63KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 84.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 83.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 82.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.Not useful at this time but anyway I post them to keep the members informed.

Website · #1206 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:25 pm

I'm bored with this... 10:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE
LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

#1207 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:26 pm

Is this thing still alive? lol

<RICKY>

#1208 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:30 pm

Poof?

#1209 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:31 pm

Big blow up of T-storms near center, don't think it'll go away quietly

#1210 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:32 pm

There is a very nice blow up of convection right near the center tonight. I wonder if it'll stay persistant this time. :roll:

corpusbreeze · #1211 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:37 pm

Ok, get ready to get flamed but here I go.....99L has shrunk in size but seems to be getting a more defined circulation and a good blow up of clouds around the center. I think tonight will be the turning point for 99l into a DP tomorrow. Sheeh ....I feel much better.

#1212 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:38 pm

Brent wrote:
cajungal wrote:What cold front? With a high still reaching 90 degrees here and lows in the 70's does not seem like much of a cold front to me. The 7-day forecast still shows temps to nearly 90 degrees almost every day. I guess it is better than the near 100 degree temps we have been having the week before.

The cold front died when it got here... 59 this morning but 85 this afternoon. It was supposed to be much cooler. Humidity is already coming back too...

Yep, the humidity came back here too. Here in Houston they are saying week's front had been projected to be much stronger, but they now expect it to stall somewhere in the CWA with moisture increasing from the south. We may still have a few weeks of watching.

#1213 Postby **canetracker** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:48 pm

corpusbreeze wrote:Ok, get ready to get flamed but here I go.....99L has shrunk in size but seems to be getting a more defined circulation and a good blow up of clouds around the center. I think tonight will be the turning point for 99l into a DP tomorrow. Sheeh ....I feel much better.

Have been watching it the past few hours and feel the same way that you do. It does look like storms are trying to wrap around the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

KatDaddy · #1214 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 9:53 pm

Quite a convective explosion very near the center. This could very well be the awakening of the system. It will be very interesting to see if this persist through the night

#1215 Postby **THead** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 10:06 pm

I don't know, but s. fla. is gettin hammered with some torrential rain showers, and I mean torrential..........flowing in from the east, something is creating some energy somewhere....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

Anonymous · #1216 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:36 pm

On October 11, 1846...what was a possible Category 5 hurricane struck Key West...from June to November, all must be on alert.

hicksta · #1217 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:40 pm

Holy moley!!! Get the batmobile!!

nolabelplez · #1218 Postby **nolabelplez** » Fri Sep 30, 2005 11:48 pm

If this thing does form, is it too far west to bother Florida?
The US really doesn't need another storm.

#1219 Postby **THead** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:15 am

nolabelplez wrote:If this thing does form, is it too far west to bother Florida?
The US really doesn't need another storm.

Its bothering me, has screwed up my car wax job on my car, the last 3 nights!! :wink:

Hopefully it is too far west........and south.

Website · #1220 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 12:24 am

nolabelplez wrote:If this thing does form, is it too far west to bother Florida?
The US really doesn't need another storm.

Yes...

99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

hey

Who is online