MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281715Z - 281915Z
   
   INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   NWD INTO SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO
   PRECLUDE WW...HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS CONVECTION
   INCREASES.
   
   AT 17Z...SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED
   ENEWD TO A POSITION NEAR MLB ALONG THE E-CENTRAL FL COAST PER RECENT
   WV IMAGERY. THE 12Z MIAMI AND 14Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED
   COOL 500MB TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND MUCAPE
   VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...WITH GENERAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   MDT AND TOWERING CU NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. WHILE MID-LEVEL
   DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGEST EAST OF FL
   PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS /HIGH CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN/ ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FOCUS STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING PERIOD. WEAK SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT SHOULD LIMIT CELL
   DURATIONS...LEAVING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SMALL TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
   TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   27018232 27888266 28348262 28698258 28948260 29388302
   29538331 30588301 30758276 30938242 31098217 31128183
   30988157 30028145 28688084 27358025 26428031 25978037
   25458075 25468107 25968171

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM...SWRN CO...AND FAR E-CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281804Z - 282000Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL/WRN NM AND SWRN CO...WITH
   ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM IN
   E-CENTRAL AZ. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SERN UT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   STRONG SWLY 500MB WINDS /40-45 KT/ AND SFC-6KM SHEAR /50-55KT/
   ACROSS NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM. DAYTIME HEATING IS GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZING ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF SWRN CO...N-CENTRAL/WRN NM
   AND E-CENTRAL AZ...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS AND
   ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SW-NE. VERTICAL MIXING AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WILL GRADUALLY DRY LOWER-LEVELS WITH SLOWLY
   FALLING SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY OBSERVED. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WITH COMBINATION OF INSOLATION AND COLD UPPER-LOW FROM THE SFC
   THROUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS
   EVENING /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES...LONG-LIVED STORMS INITIATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED BY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
   BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND BY
   WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL NM. DRY
   SWLY MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT THREAT OF SEVERE
   CONVECTION OVER MOST OF AZ...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS
   WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...
   
   35010552 34550620 34140691 33740805 33570896 33530965
   33820995 34140975 34570919 35520866 36640834 37210836
   37840876 38140900 38680895 38680763 38500730 37840644
   37430601 36610578

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/SWRN MO AND WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281959Z - 282100Z



THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SURGE TO
THE SSE. AREA BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TCU/CBS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD
INTO NERN OK/SWRN MO AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE SSEWD
INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN THESE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENTS OF THESE BOUNDARIES. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 09/28/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...AND FAR SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282245Z - 290045Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS N-CENTRAL
   TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
   THREAT. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NERN TX INTO
   SWRN AR/SERN OK MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
   EVENING. ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...LIKELY
   PRECLUDING WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   AT 2230Z...SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. A
   STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING GENERALLY SWD...AND EXTENDED FROM 10S
   LBB TO SPS TO 25W MLC BEFORE ARCING NEWD INTO FAR NWRN AR. A WIND
   SHIFT PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT BY ROUGHLY 70NM IN N-CENTRAL TX AND
   ROUGHLY 30NM IN SERN OK. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS N-S THROUGH
   THE DFW METRO AREA TO 10W ACT. INTERSECTION OF THIS DRYLINE-LIKE
   FEATURE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX...WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S IN THE DALLAS METRO AREA.
   ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS OF 50-60F WEST OF MOIST AXIS/N-S BOUNDARY. LOW SUB-CLOUD
   RH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
   AND MAY PRODUCED LOCALIZED AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK IN THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. OUTFLOW DOMINANT
   CHARACTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT IN 0.5DEG REFLECTIVITY DATA
   FROM FWS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   THE EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD
   REDUCE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
   
   AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SSEWD THROUGH FAR SERN OK AND INTO SWRN AR
   LATER THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. AIR
   MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION...AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR
   NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33969647 33979468 33819364 33019406 32479450 31819554
   31359730 31729814 32839843 33479750

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/PA...NRN NJ/NEW YORK CITY AREA NORTHWARD
THRU VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825...

VALID 291223Z - 291400Z

CONTINUE WW 825.



THOUGH WEAKENING OF UPDRAFTS OCCURRED ALONG NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT PROGRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
STATE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED A BIT COOLER/MORE STABLE
THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS ONGOING AND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY BY THE
14-15Z TIME FRAME...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE DELAWARE AND
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY...AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. COUPLED WITH AT
LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
DESTABILIZE AS STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS
REGION WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS CONVECTION
INTENSIFIES...PEAK SURFACE GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL...AS
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-70 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
TRANSFERRED DOWNWARD.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825...
   
   VALID 291458Z - 291700Z
   
   INTENSE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN
   NY AND ACROSS VT OVER THE NEXT 1.5 HOURS. PORTIONS OF MA...NH AND ME
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   BY NOON EDT.
   
   STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT LATE THIS
   MORNING. DESPITE A DISTINCT DECREASE IN CG LTG OVER THE PAST 2
   HOURS...A  SEGMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME
   STRENGTHENING FROM ESSEX COUNTY IN UPSTATE NY TO SULLIVAN COUNTY IN
   THE SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIR MASS ACROSS VT WAS LIMITING INSTABILITY EAST OF THE HUDSON
   VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL SLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
   ARE LIKELY GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50KT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS. EVEN LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE
   SQUALL LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DAMAGING CONVECTIVE
   WIND GUSTS IN WW 825 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF NH AND INTO INTERIOR
   ME MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO BE EITHER MAINTAINED OR
   STRENGTHENED AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS INTO THESE AREAS BY
   AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
   FLOW...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 825 IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   44386932 42677082 42077158 41607319 40767488 40317620
   41857602 44117526 44967422 45277133 47126946

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291609Z - 291745Z
   
   NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WAS MOVING EAST AT 40-45KT ACROSS VT
   AND WRN MA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH EAST OF THE WW 825 IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS OFFICES AT
   BOX...GYX...AND CAR.
   
   STRONG PRE-FRONTAL GRADIENT WINDS AND ONLY MARGINALLY GREATER WIND
   GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL REMAIN COVERED BY HIGH WIND
   ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ACROSS THE REGION. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   IS STILL POSSIBLE IF INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AND/OR CG LIGHTNING
   DOES INCREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION...A NEW WATCH IS NOT
   IMMINENT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   44386932 42677082 42077158 41507326 40937440 40657509
   40967548 41727483 43117407 44647353 45157356 45277133
   47126946

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291916Z - 292045Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS
   PARTS OF NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CURRENTLY
   APPEARS LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
   
   COMPACT REGION OF STRONG QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID
   LEVEL CYCLONE WAS SPREADING ESEWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS OVER NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS.
   DESPITE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR
   COULD SUSTAIN A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...
   
   35770895 36740804 36980712 37050560 36630475 36090421
   35370417 34880475 34530550 34140634 33870693 33680749
   33570835 33770879

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302049Z - 302215Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   COMPACT ZONE OF QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
   CYCLONE AND LEE-TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO ACT ON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WAS
   AN EXPANDING AREA OF INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVECTION ARCING FROM SWRN
   KS TO THE NERN TX PNHDL AND WRN OK. AIR MASS FEEDING INTO THE ZONE
   OF STRONGEST FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE HEATING PERSIST. MID LEVEL WIND MAX
   OF AT LEAST 50KT ATOP RELATIVELY WEAK SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LEE
   TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES IN THE RANGE OF
   25-50KT. A FEW STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS
   AND PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
   CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   34079934 33490025 33410127 34130217 34440214 35190223
   36230200 37020158 37550107 37680029 37359976 36289928
   34849897

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302221Z - 010015Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...A FEW OF THEM SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BACKING SFC-850 FLOW
   IS RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD. WHILE THE STORMS
   FARTHER N INTO OK ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...HOT
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S OVER CENTRAL TX ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP SUBSTANTIALLY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WITHIN SURFACE MOIST
   CONVERGENCE AXIS FROM JCT NWD TOWARDS ABI....WHERE DEVELOPMENT MAY
   TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. JAYTON WIND PROFILER SHOWS
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH RELATIVELY STRONG AND
   VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   CONTINUE TO GROW WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...TORNADO THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY CURRENT LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RH LEVELS...AND
   INCREASING CIN BY LATE EVENING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34029874 32799871 32019882 31749931 31880033 32220093
   32730130 33460106 34200094 34490052

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN/NERN MN AND A SMALL PART OF
   NWRN WI.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 032312Z - 040115Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED.  CAP HAS BROKEN ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL MN INVOF
   STC AND OVER SWRN MN  NE OF FSD.  ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 1-3 HOURS ELSEWHERE INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
   -- ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM JUST NE FSD NEWD THROUGH STC AREA TO NEAR
   DLH.  DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BOTH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE
   03Z.  ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 2-2.5
   INCHES/HOUR...HAZARD BEING AUGMENTED BY BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF
   CONVECTIVE CORES.
   
   BASED ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS...DEEP-LAYER AND
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...FOR AS LONG AS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.
   HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF PRIMARY FORCING BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLEL TO
   MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS PRIMARY LINEAR MODE EVOLVING ALONG FRONT.
   0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER REGION...JUST BENEATH 40-50
   KT LLJ.  MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN LLJ...BUT 30-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION.  ALTHOUGH
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...DEPTH OF BUOYANT
   PROFILE AND SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY IN 60S CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
   2000-3000 J/KG.  GPS DATA AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.25-1.75
   INCH PW...WITH LLJ AND MEAN FLOW EACH LIKELY TO STAY ORIENTED
   PARALLEL TO FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/03/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...
   
   44069651 46159359 46769221 46369146 45349254 43589530
   43689624

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0930 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN...NWRN WI...SWRN LS.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 829...
   
   VALID 040230Z - 040430Z
   
   INTERMITTENT SEVERE REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS NOW COMPRISING SMALL
   MCS OVER NERN MN/NWRN WI...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE.  EXPECT SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO DIMINISH
   AFTER AROUND 4Z BECAUSE OF STABILIZATION OF NEAR-SFC LAYER AND
   ASSOCIATED DIMINISHMENT OF POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO
   SFC AT SEVERE LEVELS.  WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 5Z
   EXPIRATION IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
   THUNDER BAY SWWD -- GENERALLY ALONG N SHORE OF LS -- THEN SWWD
   ACROSS FSD AREA INTO CENTRAL NEB.  SMALL/PREFRONTAL BOW ECHO --
   LOCATED OVER PINE COUNTY WI AS OF 215Z -- SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG
   LAKE-INDUCED THERMAL BOUNDARY TOWARD BAYFIELD AND APOSTLE ISLANDS
   AREAS WITH SOME THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE...BEFORE MOVING OVER
   RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OF LS.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST N OF FRONT OVER NERN MN AND MOVE
   NEWD...PRESENTING MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL BUT PERHAPS MORE
   CRITICALLY A THREAT FOR TRAINING OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CORES.
   CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED CLOSE TO ORIENTATION OF MEAN
   FLOW VECTOR...AS FORCING BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND ALSO
   PARALLEL TO LLJ.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DISCRETE BACKBUILDING AND
   MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS PRODUCING RAIN RATES AROUND 2
   INCHES/HOUR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/04/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
   
   46689098 46249178 45989292 45729448 45839476 46029477
   46659386 47219279 47479118 47189045

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB...NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 042102Z - 042300Z



THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ECNTRL NEB AND NW IA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS THE REGION.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER ERN CO AND
WCNTRL NEB. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM SRN NEB INTO SW MN. SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...VAD WIND PROFILERS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY SHOW 45 TO 55 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE MOST
PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WI/FAR NE IA/SE MN/UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 042028Z - 042230Z



A MARGINAL BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS SE MN..FAR NE IA...CNTRL WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.
ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS NEW STORMS
INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE BOUNDARY. ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTS. ROTATING CELLS MAY HAVE A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION
TO A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 10/04/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...THROUGH NCNTRL AND NERN ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051005Z - 051400Z



HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FROM W THROUGH N CNTRL ND THROUGH THE MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER NERN SD. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN THE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER STRONG 60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ADVECTING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE WARM
SECTOR NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG DEEP
LAYER LIFT WITHIN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER ACCOMPANYING THE COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS FROM WRN THROUGH N CNTRL ND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW INTO NERN ND THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
MITIGATED BY THE NEWD ADVANCING DRY SLOT WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI/U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051927Z - 052130Z



ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NE WI INTO WRN/CNTRL U.P. OF MI.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
FOR NECESSITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS FEATURE DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR ACROSS NE WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EWD ADVANCING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT AND
ADJACENT WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. SFC
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITHIN
PRE-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING AROUND 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST WEAKENING CINH. IN
SPITE OF MODEST BUOYANCY...STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS OF 35-45 KTS/ MAY PROMOTE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITHIN LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 051812Z - 052245Z
   
   HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NE ND FOR MUCH OF
   THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION
   TO VERY STRONG NLY WINDS.
   
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA PORTRAYS OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
   INTO WRN MN. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...HEAVY WET SNOW IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE/ON SRN
   PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
   LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN
   PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. AMPLE
   OMEGA THROUGH DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
   HINDERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.
   
   IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WCNTRL/NE ND
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES
   AMIDST THE HEAVY WET SNOW. VAD DATA FROM MINOT WSR-88D EFFECTIVELY
   SAMPLES 50-65 KT NELY WINDS WITHIN 1-3 KM LAYER...WITH LATEST RUC
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48919744 48099752 47559935 47070048 46470222 46790299
   47270350 48020402 48820324 49060219

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC/ERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061947Z - 062145Z
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO THE SC COASTAL PLAIN. A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN
   GA/COASTAL SC ON PERIPHERY OF TD TAMMY...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   EXISTS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH CELLS ALONG THE
   SAVANNAH VALLEY OF ERN GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
   MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WEST-EAST ORIENTED
   COASTAL/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH CAE
   WSR-88D DEPICTING AROUND 150 M2/S2 0-1 SRH. RELATIVELY GREATER
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CELLS
   INTERACTING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MARGINAL NATURE OF SCENARIO
   WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 10/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...
   
   33508216 33758204 34257969 33397903 32188045 31838142
   32318227 32868242

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071609Z - 071815Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...
   
   LONG-LIVED UPPER VORT...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...HAS LIFTED
   TO A POSITION NEAR THE SC/GA COAST.  CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
   DEEPENED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEAR THIS WEAK
   CIRCULATION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACROSS THIS
   REGION...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HENCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THIS NNEWD EJECTING
   FEATURE.  PARTIAL HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   32168180 33728089 35547880 34607655 31348014

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...COASTAL SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 831...
   
   VALID 071851Z - 072015Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH...
   
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.  LONG-LIVED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
   CENTER CONTINUES ITS NWD MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 15KT...AND IS LIFTING
   AWAY FROM MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...MLCAPE
   VALUES AOA 1000J/KG.  WITH TIME THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   FOCUS A BIT FARTHER EAST WHERE LLJ IS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
   
   32438222 33818103 34837874 33377782 30968018 31298196