Tropical Depression 19,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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gatorcane
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#21 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:03 pm

This has Houston written all over it. We have dodged our last bullet
.

The storm is more than 2500 miles away from Houston. I highly doubt it :roll:
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#22 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:05 pm

Its amazing the season has been so strong on the basis of homegrown systems. This is nothing like 1995! Or any other year for that matter. Any mets know of ANY similar season?
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#23 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:07 pm

dwg71 wrote:This has Houston written all over it. :wink: We have dodged our last bullet. :cry:


A Cape Verde making landfall in Houston in October would be the new climatological record of the season, possibly in history; moreso than Rita making it from the Bahamas past 90W the last week of September.
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#24 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:07 pm

Its amazing the season has been so strong on the basis of homegrown systems. This is nothing like 1995! Or any other year for that matter. Any mets know of ANY similar season?


1933:

Image
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#25 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:09 pm

jschlitz wrote:
dwg71 wrote:This has Houston written all over it. :wink: We have dodged our last bullet. :cry:


A Cape Verde making landfall in Houston in October would be the new climatological record of the season, possibly in history; moreso than Rita making it from the Bahamas past 90W the last week of September.

You and some others obviously don't have your sarcasm meter on. This is dwg we're talking about. Also notice the wink smiley...
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#26 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:10 pm

boca_chris wrote:
This has Houston written all over it. We have dodged our last bullet
.

The storm is more than 2500 miles away from Houston. I highly doubt it :roll:

:uarrow: (see post above) :wink: :D
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#27 Postby HurricaneGirl » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:11 pm

boca_chris wrote:19th depression of the season!!!
:eek: HOLY CRAP!! :eek:
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#28 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:12 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
dwg71 wrote:This has Houston written all over it. :wink: We have dodged our last bullet. :cry:


A Cape Verde making landfall in Houston in October would be the new climatological record of the season, possibly in history; moreso than Rita making it from the Bahamas past 90W the last week of September.

You and some others obviously don't have your sarcasm meter on. This is dwg we're talking about. Also notice the wink smiley...


Sorry, hat was laying on the desk :D Been a crazy day...
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#29 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:12 pm

boca_chris wrote:
19th depression of the season!!!
HOLY CRAP!!


there is the statement of 2005. :lol:
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#30 Postby audioslave8 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:41 pm

It doesn't matter this storm has fish written all over it. Should be just a shipping dealio.
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#31 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

audioslave8 wrote:It doesn't matter this storm has fish written all over it. Should be just a shipping dealio.


I agree...but the discussion is interesting:::

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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#32 Postby audioslave8 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:52 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
audioslave8 wrote:It doesn't matter this storm has fish written all over it. Should be just a shipping dealio.


I agree...but the discussion is interesting:::

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
Well maybe future Stan will make it interesting down the road but I think he will have a hard time hitting the east coast.
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hey

#33 Postby Anthysteg » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:53 pm

audioslave8 wrote:It doesn't matter this storm has fish written all over it. Should be just a shipping dealio.


In my experience the official forcast track is usually somehow wrong and with the fact that there IS A LARGE level of uncertainity after 3 days it's foolish to say it'll definitely be a fish.


Don't ride it off until all models show a consist flow to a certain area. Which they obviously don't.
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Re: hey

#34 Postby skysummit » Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:54 pm

Anthysteg wrote:
audioslave8 wrote:It doesn't matter this storm has fish written all over it. Should be just a shipping dealio.


In my experience the official forcast track is usually somehow wrong and with the fact that there IS A LARGE level of uncertainity after 3 days it's foolish to say it'll definitely be a fish.


Don't ride it off until all models show a consist flow to a certain area. Which they obviously don't.


Good post, and welcome to S2K!
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#35 Postby audioslave8 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:15 pm

ITS A FISH!!! bye bye Stan MMMM........ thats why the NHC give us their forecast track to show us he is going out to sea. Seems nobody thinks the NHC is right anymore. What the hell you think they do there. Its going out to sea. It might be a little west than the official track but its leaving town. I guess Hurricanes these days can rip right through cold fronts.
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#36 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:15 pm

Things are a little crazy right now - I leave with 99L slowly developing (and no 90L), and return this evening to TD19 on the other side of the basin. Wow.
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#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:16 pm

It looks very good. I think we will have a tropical storm by 11pm.
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#38 Postby huricanwatcher » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:21 pm

HurricaneGirl wrote:
boca_chris wrote:19th depression of the season!!!
:eek: HOLY CRAP!! :eek:



:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
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Anthysteg

#39 Postby Anthysteg » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:29 pm

audioslave8 wrote:ITS A FISH!!! bye bye Stan MMMM........ thats why the NHC give us their forecast track to show us he is going out to sea. Seems nobody thinks the NHC is right anymore. What the hell you think they do there. Its going out to sea. It might be a little west than the official track but its leaving town. I guess Hurricanes these days can rip right through cold fronts.



Geez your ignorant.


Obviously you can see through time and pinpoint exactly what it will do 72 hours out right?


ANY FORECAST PAST 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. Even the NHC can admit to that. Katrina was never supposed to do what she did but the GFDL showing the more consistent track won.


As long as a SINGLE MODEL shows a possible turn it's never totally out of the picture to say it's a fish. After all the NHC track is just a consensus of models.


I'm not disagreeing with you, just amused by your ignorance.
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#40 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 30, 2005 5:30 pm

Floater 2 on this storm now:

Image[/i]
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