99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

30/1145 UTC 18.6N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


For the first time 99L gets 1.5 T number.

[gatorcane]

For the first time 99L gets 1.5 T number

I'm very surprised it hasn't develop sooner. I still think it is a concerning area given climatology and now the forecasted erratic track. I still think it will be a GOM player down the road. Now that we are approaching October ridges aren't as strong and weaknesses develop more frequently.

[CHRISTY]

[vaffie]

30/1145 UTC 18.6N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


For the first time 99L gets 1.5 T number.

Cycloneye, how often are T numbers posted, and where do you find this? Thanks a lot!

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

They come out four times every day,6:00z,12:00z,18:00z and 00:00z.

[vaffie]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

They come out four times every day,6:00z,12:00z,18:00z and 00:00z.

Thanks very much!

[rockyman]

30/1145 UTC 18.6N 83.5W T1.5/1.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean


For the first time 99L gets 1.5 T number.

We have enough visible shots this morning to run a loop, and there does appear to be a nice low level circulation at approximately the T-number location....on the western edge of the major convection.

[cat_6]

so is it a depression FINALLY?

[djtil]

wont know until recon gets there.

[Air Force Met]

so is it a depression FINALLY?

No...not yet. There is a weak...very broad...low level circulation east of Belize and north of the eastern tip of Honduras....wsw of Grand Caymen. The showers are still too disorganized to call it a TD...but I think it will be within 24 hours. Once you get a closed low...regardless of how weak it is...you can start generating the convergence necessary for the deepening process to begin. I think this will be one of those systems that reforms it's LLC a couple of times to the north and northeast.

Time wil tell. I expect a TD by this time tomorrow....once we can get some good sustained convection.

[mvtrucking]

wont know until recon gets there.

Better chance today or tomorrow I think (Thanks AF).

[KatDaddy]

Joe B column is free today:

Excerpt on the GOM:

Speaking of the Gulf and error potential, here we sit on Thursday, and there it is, the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. There has been a constant drumbeat of slow, southern development on the European with a landfalling storm near Tampico late next week. The worry here is that the idea I am sticking with has merit. What has been said is that this moves into the Gulf this weekend and then comes for Texas or Mexico. In addition, the end game of such a system is Rita-esque, for the ridge over Texas will break down and allow the system to come northward. Is this deja-vu? Remember about ten days before Rita, talking about the idea it could slow and turn northward, and the same problem here, that it would be in the southwest Gulf. The point is that there seems to be a bias on the European, which has done an outstanding job in forecasting development of the Gulf systems, but has had a bias in the monsters too far west. So my worry here is that the system is closer to 25 north and 95 west next Wednesday, the ridge is breaking down and it's turning up toward Texas. Of course, we have to get it to form in the first place, but why would I back away now? The disturbance is there. I think the question is, where will it pop? Interestingly enough, the GFS, though fast looking, has a distinct, more northward path, and so does the Canadian. As far as the system not developing, well, whether it goes through the Yucatan or not, would you bet against anything in the Gulf this year? (Well, maybe a little bit of Rita south of Louisiana, though that continues to hang on on its way southwestward.)


Here is the link for everyone:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... ree_column

He also talks about possible SE US tropical troubles.

[cjrciadt]

[HURAKAN]

TWO:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the large
low pressure area located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has
become better organized... even though upper-level winds have
become less favorable. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased and this system still has the potential to become a
tropical depression during the next day or so as it moves slowly
west-northwestward. The reconnaissance flight scheduled for this
afternoon has been canceled. However... another Air Force Reserve
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system late tonight or
Saturday...if necessary. Whether or not this system become a
tropical cyclone... locally heavy rainfall will likely affect
Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... portions of central and western
Cuba... and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple of days.
Interests in and around the northwestern Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.

[HURAKAN]

Now comes this question, if according to the NHC, the system is becoming better organized, then why cancel the RECON?

Maybe it's better organized, but not yet a depression? Or something else?

[mvtrucking]

Scott[/quote]

Wow, I wondered if that had ever happened before....how did it happen, were there any details? Besides the obvious..... [/quote]

There is a book called "Stormchasers: The Hurricane Hunters and Their Fateful Flight into Hurricane Janet"

I'll PM you with some more info...

Scott[/quote]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I just ordered this book. Can't wait to read it. (Found it for $3.25)

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneQueen]

Gee, the CLIP has it heading for my house!!! Obviously not worried about it. However, our least favorite on camera weather personality (Read:not a MET) stated this morning that we should expect a very breezy weekend in the Naples/Ft.Myers area from 99L. Go figure. He usually downplays everything even with a storm headed straight for us. If it is moving away from the area, I find it hard to believe we would feel any effects.

Lynn

[corpusbreeze]

I have a question on future movement IF 99l gets going today or tomorrow? Lookind at the LLC drifting wsw across the GOM right now wouldnt 99l take a similar path? I know the swirl in the gulf is weak an devoid of clouds, but it is a Low level low. Some models seem to want to push 99L wsw after reaching the gulf, and the current low seems to be foreshadowing 99L future track. Only thing is 99L doent seem to want to move very much. The next front could pick it up.

[quandary]

Still have to keep watching this. Probably no need for recon right now, whether its a TD or not atm really won't matter in a few hours. As JB said though multiple times, once these things get the stone rolling, they tend to just keep building up like Alex last year.