90L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

Convection has flared bigtime over the Surface Low.This is almost stationary now but is expected to move NW.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Convection has flared bigtime over the Surface Low.This is almost stationary now but is expected to move NW.

td19 soon or ts stan????????????????

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050930 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 0600 050930 1800 051001 0600 051001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 32.5W 11.8N 32.4W 11.8N 32.6W 12.2N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 32.5W 11.9N 32.7W 11.9N 33.1W 12.2N 33.9W
A98E 11.8N 32.5W 11.8N 33.5W 11.9N 34.8W 12.1N 36.2W
LBAR 11.8N 32.5W 11.6N 32.9W 11.9N 33.7W 12.4N 35.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 0600 051003 0600 051004 0600 051005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 34.2W 16.1N 36.7W 20.6N 38.1W 25.6N 37.2W
BAMM 12.7N 34.8W 15.0N 37.0W 17.9N 38.7W 20.3N 40.3W
A98E 12.6N 37.4W 13.5N 39.1W 15.1N 40.6W 17.6N 41.8W
LBAR 13.7N 37.0W 18.5N 40.8W 24.5N 41.1W 27.4N 35.1W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 54KTS 47KTS
DSHP 47KTS 57KTS 54KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 32.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 31.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 30.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots show a fish storm.

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGERY


A panoramic view of 90L.

[O Town]

[Hyperstorm]

Finally, this tropical low has acquired the ingredient necessary for it to be classified...VERY deep thunderstorm activity. This system has a had a very impressive low-level circulation, but it had been lacking significant convection. Today, it is another story with a well-defined LLC apparently located near the northern half of the thunderstorm activity.

Atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable at this time since there is a very large upper-level low near 25N, 28W and is inducing some slight W to WNW wind shear into the system. Dry air has subsided some north of the system, but what has helped it grow significant shower activity, is that it has attached itself to the ITCZ. This has fed significant moisture into the system and off it goes. A tropical depression should form during the next 24 hours, since convection is increasing in coverage over the surface low.

Regarding track, I was thinking more of a W tto WNW track after the ridge strengthens north of the system. However, the ridge has not developed yet and until/if it does so, the track will be poleward. The current atmospheric environment north of it is inundated with many weaknesses, so expect a very slow movement initially. It is quite possible that the system may turn more WNW in time IF the high builds north of it as forecast by some models.

This could very well become Stan before the mess in the Caribbean does anything...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050930 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 1200 051001 0000 051001 1200 051002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 32.9W 11.7N 33.1W 11.7N 33.7W 12.0N 34.6W
BAMM 11.8N 32.9W 11.8N 33.4W 11.9N 34.1W 12.1N 35.1W
A98E 11.8N 32.9W 11.9N 33.7W 12.0N 34.8W 12.4N 36.1W
LBAR 11.8N 32.9W 11.7N 33.2W 12.0N 34.3W 12.8N 35.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 1200 051003 1200 051004 1200 051005 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 35.8W 15.5N 38.4W 18.9N 39.8W 22.9N 40.2W
BAMM 12.6N 36.3W 14.5N 38.5W 16.3N 40.2W 16.9N 42.4W
A98E 13.1N 37.3W 14.3N 39.5W 15.9N 41.6W 18.6N 43.0W
LBAR 14.3N 37.8W 19.3N 41.2W 25.0N 40.5W 27.1N 34.4W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 58KTS 56KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 58KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 32.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hyperstorm]

I also forgot to add that there is very dry air to the NW of the system, which is diving southeast toward it. Right now, the NW edge of the circulation is lacking significant shower activity due to this intrusion. This along with some light W-WNW wind shear over it is not very favorable for significant development. If the system turns NW, the environment there could prove VERY unfavorable for additional strengthening. If it moves W-WNW, it won't be totally unfavorable, since it would move in tandem with the upper-level easterlies.

That being said, the longer the system remains where it is now, the better the chances of near-term development...

[cycloneye]

What is interesting is that 90L looks much better than 99L in terms of organization being 99L trying to develop for several days without reaching TD status but in contrast 90L has organized fairly rapidly.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

30/1200 UTC 12.0N 32.9W T1.5/1.5 90 -- Atlantic Ocean


Very close to TD status.

[gatorcane]

so there's no chance at all of this invest moving W? What happened to this monster ridge that was forecasted by many models?

[cjrciadt]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
and
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Stan= Fish not a problem

[CHRISTY]

looks like a fish to me all the way!

[cycloneye]

For thosse members who like to see the ir image with the colors here it is.

[Brent]

Fish.

[skysummit]

That's one PRETTY wave!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like a depression too me...

[mike815]

no i disagree but we will see

[wxmann_91]

Fish.

looks like a fish to me all the way!

Stan= Fish not a problem

Don't be too quick to make hasty assumptions.

There's a possibility if 90L moves slow enough so the ridge builds in that it could eventually threaten the United States.

This sure is one good-looking wave, I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD at 11 AM.