99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

ya we have been lucky down here but i believe if not this year it will be our turn next year.

[Brent]

ya we have been lucky down here but i believe if not this year it will be our turn next year.

Katrina????

[CHRISTY]

i ment a major hurricane ! its been 13 years since ANDREW i call that luck!

[wzrgirl1]

well I have to agree with Christy on that one........we are damn lucky so far........it's only a matter of time

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050930 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050930 0000 050930 1200 051001 0000 051001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 83.0W 18.4N 84.2W 18.7N 85.5W 19.1N 86.8W
BAMM 18.2N 83.0W 18.5N 84.4W 18.9N 85.7W 19.4N 87.1W
A98E 18.2N 83.0W 18.9N 84.0W 19.7N 85.0W 20.7N 86.4W
LBAR 18.2N 83.0W 18.9N 84.2W 19.9N 85.5W 21.1N 87.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051002 0000 051003 0000 051004 0000 051005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 88.2W 20.8N 91.0W 21.3N 93.5W 21.3N 95.8W
BAMM 20.0N 88.6W 21.2N 91.3W 21.7N 94.0W 22.0N 96.4W
A98E 21.9N 88.1W 24.4N 92.4W 26.3N 96.5W 26.9N 99.5W
LBAR 22.5N 88.7W 25.3N 91.3W 26.2N 93.5W 26.1N 95.0W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 82KTS 84KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 45KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.7N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z Models.

[corpusbreeze]

Maybe sombody can start a new message board called 99L . Is this the longest going thread on a invest?

[vaffie]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Have you guys seen the latest 72 hour forecast of upper level winds. If you have, "BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO." might seem like one of the biggest understatements of the year. It is forecasting an upper high built up over the Yucatan Channel with a diameter of between 1500 and 3000 miles, with the nearest upper level low a weak one at best and 1000 miles away--east of the Bahamas! http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... odnav=none
What kind of outflow could that create?! My fear is that it could result in very rapid intensification as it approaches the Mexico/Texas coasts, and negate the effects of an upwelled Gulf, residually dry air, and proximity to the Yucatan.

[Brent]

Maybe sombody can start a new message board called 99L . Is this the longest going thread on a invest?

TD 10... Back Again(Pre-Katrina) went 120+ pages over 8 days.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED EAST OF
SWAN ISLAND THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRODAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.

10:30 PM TWO.

[wxmann_91]

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRODAY...IF NECESSARY.

LOL...when's Froday?

Before anybody bashes me, I'm just joking.

[krysof]

I can't believe how long this thread is. Yet the TWO keeps saying one day, more concentrated, no change, recon next day, TD in a couple of days, de ja vu!

[cycloneye]

For sure they will correct that typo.

[Stratosphere747]

Swan Islands...

Name that storm...

[SouthFloridawx]

Mitch or Hattie?

[Brent]

Mitch went right over Swan Island with 180 mph winds...

I see the NHC is still focused farther south. Hmmmm....

[Recurve]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 180 NM NORTHEAST OF HONDURAS MOVING
NORTHWEST 5 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W.

Go ahead, fly north. Hit us now before something puts you in the Gulf.

[vaffie]

I see the NHC is still focused farther south. Hmmmm....

In my opinion, I also think they're off, but if that area did have the lowest pressure when Recon flew around, regardless of the fact there is convection elsewhere, if the convection around that point continues to blossom as it has been, it will become the definitive LLC. If it doesn't, the LLC will form northeast of this area. If the area northeast of it also blossoms simultaneously tonight--which may indeed happen, we may end up with a broader deeper LLC and therefore a bigger tropical depression/storm tomorrow morning.

[Starburst]

It looks as if the convection is firing some tonight looking a bit better than it was.

[Stratosphere747]

Mitch went right over Swan Island with 180 mph winds...

I see the NHC is still focused farther south. Hmmmm....

Correct Brent...

Hard to believe and tells you how historic this season is....Two canes within one month that beats his pressure...

[Galvestongirl]

just heard on radio NHCWX that GOM is not condusive for development...but, he also said it can change in a snap.....woohoo, I am glad to hear that it is not favorable right now.