TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF
UNCERTAIN 35 KT VECTORS IN CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
OR VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 6Z CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5...OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
MICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST A CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MY
ESTIMATED POSTION...BUT THESE MAY BE REFLECTING SWIRLS GENERATED IN
THE CONVECTION THAT THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND A BROADER
CIRCULATION. AT NIGHT I WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAN JUMP ON ONE OF THESE SWIRLS. EVEN
SO...THE TRACK DOES APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/5. OTIS REMAINS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THAT OTIS WILL TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF OTIS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN. THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD BEEN ONE OF THE SLOWER
MODELS PREVIOUSLY...IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST...WHILE THE
GFDL...WHICH HAD BEEN THE FASTEST...IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PACK. SUCH ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IS A GOOD REASON TO STAY NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. ONLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OTIS
AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OTIS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER PACE
AFTER THAT. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND/OR COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 17.5N 107.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
The race is on between the Atlantic and EPAC.
Tropical Depression Otis Advisories
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression Otis Advisories
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:34 am, edited 37 times in total.
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cycloneye
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TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A
29/0912Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND
THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER... WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT
TIME... HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS DID DEPICT A NICE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION... BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE
SWIRLS GENERATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST THAT HAVE THEN
ROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL CENTERS NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA... WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS TO BE ERODED BY A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
BAJA BY 120 HOURS. ONLY THE 29/00Z ECMWF MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE ECMWF.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS
OTIS AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER... SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
LAYER APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY WILL NOT
WEAKEN FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BUT WITH THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN
...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SSTS OF 28-29C BENEATH THE STORM...
AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL COOLER WATER IS
REACHED AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH BRING OTIS UP TO 63 KT AND 74
KT... RESPECTIVELY... BY 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
$$
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A
29/0912Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND
THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER... WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT
TIME... HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS DID DEPICT A NICE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION... BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE
SWIRLS GENERATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST THAT HAVE THEN
ROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL CENTERS NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA... WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS TO BE ERODED BY A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
BAJA BY 120 HOURS. ONLY THE 29/00Z ECMWF MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE ECMWF.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS
OTIS AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER... SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
LAYER APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY WILL NOT
WEAKEN FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BUT WITH THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN
...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SSTS OF 28-29C BENEATH THE STORM...
AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL COOLER WATER IS
REACHED AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH BRING OTIS UP TO 63 KT AND 74
KT... RESPECTIVELY... BY 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
$$
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cycloneye wrote:TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A
29/0912Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND
THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER... WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT
TIME... HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS DID DEPICT A NICE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION... BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE
SWIRLS GENERATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST THAT HAVE THEN
ROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MID-LEVEL AND
LOW-LEVEL CENTERS NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA... WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. OTIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS TO BE ERODED BY A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
BAJA BY 120 HOURS. ONLY THE 29/00Z ECMWF MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE ECMWF.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS
OTIS AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER... SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW
LAYER APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY WILL NOT
WEAKEN FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BUT WITH THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN
...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SSTS OF 28-29C BENEATH THE STORM...
AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL COOLER WATER IS
REACHED AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH BRING OTIS UP TO 63 KT AND 74
KT... RESPECTIVELY... BY 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA
$$
Mmm... first EPAC landfall for Mexico this year.
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RESULTANT MOTION ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB... 45 KT FROM TAFB... AND 35 KT FROM
SAB... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN
UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 996 MB AND 52 KT AT 29/1545Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE STARTING
TO PULL UNDERNEATH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS
SUCH... A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. OVERALL... THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
OTIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
A SHOTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND... AS A
RESULT... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR. A 25/1545Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 60 PERCENT MID-LEVEL
EYEWALL HAD FORMED...SO AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTIS
WILL BE OVER 28.5-29C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. BY AROUND 72
HOURS... OTIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... WITH FASTER WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER 96 HOURS WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.
INTERESTS NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.9N 109.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
A WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
ROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RESULTANT MOTION ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB... 45 KT FROM TAFB... AND 35 KT FROM
SAB... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN
UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 996 MB AND 52 KT AT 29/1545Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE STARTING
TO PULL UNDERNEATH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS
SUCH... A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. OVERALL... THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
OTIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
A SHOTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND... AS A
RESULT... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR. A 25/1545Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 60 PERCENT MID-LEVEL
EYEWALL HAD FORMED...SO AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTIS
WILL BE OVER 28.5-29C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. BY AROUND 72
HOURS... OTIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... WITH FASTER WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER 96 HOURS WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.
INTERESTS NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 18.9N 109.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
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cycloneye
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WTPZ25 KNHC 300232
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005
0300Z FRI SEP 30 2005
AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC
COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.4W
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 109.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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WTPZ35 KNHC 300232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
...OTIS STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...
AT 8 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC
COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES... 335 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF OTIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...19.9 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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This will be a first but I will sticky this thread of a EPAC system because of the threat to Baja California.
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cycloneye
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TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
JUST RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/11...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOTION IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AS OTIS
CONSOLIDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF OTIS ALONG 26N...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NEAR 33N126W. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANDIAN
MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...WITH OTIS BEING GRADUALLY
TURNED NORTHWARD BY THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY
72 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT OTIS
WILL NOT CONNECT WITH THE TROUGHS AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 6 HR
AGO...AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE LEFT TO KEEP OTIS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE CURRENT MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK MUCH TO
THE LEFT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE
FIRST 48-72 HR ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER OTIS...AND CONDITION NOW APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STORM REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR OTIS
TO PEAK AT 75 KT IN 36-48 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALLS FOR A
PEAK OF 76 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 68 KT PEAK IN
ABOUT 30 HR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER STORM THAN
THE GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HR. OTIS COULD
STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
OTIS WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ISOTHERMS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN SSTS UNDER THE STORM LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 109.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005
OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
JUST RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/11...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOTION IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AS OTIS
CONSOLIDATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF OTIS ALONG 26N...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NEAR 33N126W. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANDIAN
MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...WITH OTIS BEING GRADUALLY
TURNED NORTHWARD BY THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY
72 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT OTIS
WILL NOT CONNECT WITH THE TROUGHS AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH TIME. THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 6 HR
AGO...AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE LEFT TO KEEP OTIS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE CURRENT MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK MUCH TO
THE LEFT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE
FIRST 48-72 HR ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER OTIS...AND CONDITION NOW APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STORM REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR OTIS
TO PEAK AT 75 KT IN 36-48 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALLS FOR A
PEAK OF 76 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 68 KT PEAK IN
ABOUT 30 HR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER STORM THAN
THE GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HR. OTIS COULD
STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
OTIS WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ISOTHERMS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN SSTS UNDER THE STORM LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 19.9N 109.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND
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Matt-hurricanewatcher Posted: Thu Sep 29, 2005 10:45 pm Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wonder if this can become the second storm to hit California...
This is something that should get interesting, especially if it's bombs and gets to be a strong cat 3... The last time a tropical systems hit Socal, havoc was wreaked. I don't believe a hurricane has ever made landfall in socal before. I wonder if this will at least make it to northern Baja mexico, and hit ensanada area?
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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That is right chad.I hope by tommorow it will be focused on Otis.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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HurricaneJoe22
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Aslkahuna
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Yes the track and intensity right now are very similar to Lester in 1992 except that Lester came off Baja fast and with winds of 55kt and then accelerated into SE AZ which allowed the strom to maintain TS intensity into Cochise County (and that was a wild night believe me). If Otis follows this forecast it will be at best a TD and more likely moisture remnants-however, we still need to watch it. BTW, it's not unusual to find one of these each year. My son (a grad student in Atmospheric Sciences) did a short study and found that AZ is affected by about 1 Tropical system in some way per Monsoon season. Sunday and Monday we have the 16th anniversary of Raymond which came in three years before Lester-not quite as windy but just as wet.
Steve
Steve
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